stack off with AK top two here? 200NL

Villain is 47/23/3 and likes to see a little to many showdowns. I planned to get all-in on the river here myself if he didn't. Anyway it got me thinking afterwards, so here it is:

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($590.50)
Hero ($198.00)
MP ($171.80)
Button ($240.00)
SB ($182.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, A.
Hero raises to $8, 3 folds, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) K, T, A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB calls $12.

Turn: ($41) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $27, BB raises to $80, Hero calls $53.

River: ($201) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $100, Hero calls $98 (All-In).

Final Pot: $399

This looks like 2 pr is no good.

but if villain is loose enough to stack off with a worse 2 pair it's not that bad a line I don't think.

smells like a set though.

47/23/3 - Uhhhhhh there is NOOOOOOOOOOOOO way I'm folding here. Just shove the turn too.

Bet more on turn. Shove over top of raise.

There is no way I am going to just put villain on a set and fold here.

47/23 says it all, No way I fold here.

nh

Nobody gives a 47/23 credit for a QJ here?

Originally Posted by Silly String

Nobody gives a 47/23 credit for a QJ here?

Yes, but there are many more hands that he does beat. AT, KT, A6, A4, AQ, AJ, KQ...

I'm not gonna say I wouldn't be suprised if he showed QJ, but his range is too big to not also put him on a lot of hands he is beating.

What does everyone think of this range? Villain most likely has 2-pair or better I would think given the c/c, c/r line. FWIW I think TT/QJ are most likely given villain's line.

AdKc 49.252%
TT,AKs,ATs,A4s,KTs,QJs,AKo,ATo,KTo,QJo 50.748%

maybe it's more marginal than i thought, i made my usua mistake by feeling i'm ahead and then just get the money in instead of stopping and thinking about what he had? still if it is around 50/50 there is already some money in the pot, so. still don't know how i'd play it again. (i let him bet the last $100, a shove on the turn might have been better but i think his calling range vs betting range is smaller)

he did have QJ btw

If you think it's QJ a lot, just call the turn and hope for a Q or J

Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye

Bet more on turn. Shove over top of raise.

I agree. Definately a good place for a pot sized bet here and I can't put him on QJ or a set. Given his high preflop raising range, does he 3bet TT-AA preflop?

I can almost see Ax of hearts here do the same thing, but I think you see AT here a lot.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye

Bet more on turn. Shove over top of raise.

I agree. Definately a good place for a pot sized bet here and I can't put him on QJ or a set. Given his high preflop raising range, does he 3bet TT-AA preflop?

I can almost see Ax of hearts here do the same thing, but I think you see AT here a lot.

why?

I think he plays more aggressive on the flop here with the made straight. He would have assumed that this hand hit you hard too and would have looked for way to build the pot more so he could go allin on the turn.

I'm not saying he can't have the QJ, but I think its very unlikly given his line and his stats. I'm willing to say that opponent can play well postflop although he has poor preflop standards, for the same reasons I never played against 40/20s or 50/20s at the 10/20 SHLHE game--their postflop skills were far greater than I wanted to give them credit for. All that taken into account, I'm hoping for a worse two pair here.

the only hand i am worried about is QJ, and theres no way i am not felting

i think you played it well

Originally Posted by Renton

the only hand i am worried about is QJ, and theres no way i am not felting

why not TT?

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Renton

the only hand i am worried about is QJ, and theres no way i am not felting

why not TT?

tt is a fairly standard reraise from this player

can we really estimate his 3-bet range from just his pfr%?

not really, but the fact that he is on the bb makes most people's reraise ranges wider than they'd normally be.

Smells like a str8. But a guy who plays 47/23 poker gets paid off in this situation. Cause if youre not playing top two pair then what are you playing?

Looks like this a situation where i reload before the hand is over tho

i dont like this. I think this fish has QJ a lot, but then i dont think he thinks you have AK a lot.
Id have lost my stack too though i think.

I think the villain played this just like a fish plays a real powerful hand. He c/c a flop when he knows he has a monster and the other player will bet. Then he check/raised the turn(anyone smell a set+ here?). Then push the river.
That said, I think I still go broke here. But like izybx said, I am reloading before hitting the call button.