Standard AK vs fish

Villain is typical 40/0 fish over only 20 hands.
River can't be a check behind here vs. this guy is it? I have no reads to say he's spewtastic, so I can't call the push either, right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($139.60)
SB ($151.40)
BB ($69.05)
Hero ($92.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, A.
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) J, 3, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero calls $3.

Turn: ($14.50) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB calls $11.

River: ($36.50) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB raises to $51.05, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $76.50

Standard

Thanks Fnord. I was just unsure about betting the river and folding to the push since he only had $51 left and I was getting almost 2:1 on my call. Of course I don't see anything I beat but a bluff.
Given stack sizes, do you guys think the river value bet the right amount?

raise flop. nice fold on river, this guy never bluffs here.

i like it, especially river sizing/fold

Originally Posted by Deanglow

i like it, especially river sizing/fold

I'm confused. If we're not going to call a raise, why not check behind? What kind of hands does he call/fold? Don't we make more here checking behind?

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by Deanglow

i like it, especially river sizing/fold

I'm confused. If we're not going to call a raise, why not check behind? What kind of hands does he call/fold? Don't we make more here checking behind?

Because we can get worse hands to call - Jx, QT

Originally Posted by Ash256

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by Deanglow

i like it, especially river sizing/fold

I'm confused. If we're not going to call a raise, why not check behind? What kind of hands does he call/fold? Don't we make more here checking behind?

Because we can get worse hands to call - Jx, QT

Yeah, I see that. But we also reopen the betting and LOSE money against a large part of his range, too. Are there really enough bad hands he'll call with to offset the huge amount we lose when we bet and raised off our hand?

yes, wtf

Originally Posted by nutsinho

yes, wtf

I've stared at this hand for like 10 minutes, trying to figure this out. Sorry if I'm dense on this one.

We need him to call the $20 river bet twice as often as he raises it for the river bet to be better than checking behind (roughly - trying to simplify the math).

I guess I'm not convinced he has that many hands he'll call with. If he does, it's pretty thin EV, imo. Why are all the good players so sure on this one? What I am missing?

I'm really just asking for help 'cuz I wouldn't play it the way nuts, dean and fnord think is obvious. And that worries me

the river card certainly isnt a nice one for us but theres still a ton of crap a 40/0 retard can call with that doesnt beat TPTK, particularly QT or Jx. I'd also be betting KQ here if i somehow got to the river this way. Would you agree that this is a ridiculously easy value bet on any card other than a Q or J?

he can also have an ace

Originally Posted by nutsinho

the river card certainly isnt a nice one for us but theres still a ton of crap a 40/0 retard can call with that doesnt beat TPTK, particularly QT or Jx. I'd also be betting KQ here if i somehow got to the river this way. Would you agree that this is a ridiculously easy value bet on any card other than a Q or J?

Yes, I agree. I'm beginning to see your logic. Still pondering, though...

I usually raise the flop

Standard B/F I think. good part of his range calls and the other part raises.

I'm checking behind on the river. He's raising more often than he's calling with worse.

raising the flop or doing this is fine.

Originally Posted by brewer

I'm checking behind on the river. He's raising more often than he's calling with worse.

You're missing an insane amount of value checking behind here. The guy is 40/0, and will definitely definitely call with worse. How do you figure a passive fish is raising this river more often than calling?

KJ might call, QT might call, KQ if he got there, Ax that he was trying to steal flop with, and probably some other crap too.

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by Deanglow

i like it, especially river sizing/fold

I'm confused. If we're not going to call a raise, why not check behind? What kind of hands does he call/fold? Don't we make more here checking behind?

Robb - there are tons of spots where villain is so passive that he will play his hand face up for you. He'll call when he's unsure and only raise when he beats us. These spots and these players are perfect players to comfortably bet bet bet top pair good kicker against, and fold when they raise.

bet/fold, bet/fold, bet/fold.... there's nothing wrong with that.

It's not a mistake to fold after making a thin value bet.

It IS a mistake to not make the value bet in the first place.