Standard calldown with TPGK vs tag?

Villain is tight and agg. No real history with this character.

To preface, I am trying to cut down heavily on my hero calldowns. Im obviously not good enough to do it profitably yet, especially at stakes as passive as 1/2.

This one felt more like I was calling for value. When an unknown donkbets me on a flop like this, I usually am not giving him credit for any kind of strength. Usually its a bluff, and occasionally its a weak top or middle pair betting "to see where he is at" generally, with a hand like a missed AK, i am giving him the information he needs and raising his bet, and he usually folds. Rarely, although sometimes its a set, but on a board like this I think sets usually get checked to me on the flop or maybe the turn.

Postscript: I usually fold K9o preflop, but I wanted to pick up the 3 dead dollars in the pot.


POKERSTARS GAME #6959219680: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2006/11/09 - 20:01:27 (ET)
Table 'Sundmania' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: carrotsnake ($182.25 in chips)
Seat 3: Adis314 ($40 in chips)
Seat 4: Renton555 ($240.15 in chips)
Seat 5: GRILLO1 ($192.75 in chips)
GRILLO1: posts small blind $1
carrotsnake: posts big blind $2
Adis314: posts small & big blinds $3

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Renton555 [Kd 9h]

Adis314: checks
Renton555: raises $6 to $8
GRILLO1: folds
carrotsnake: calls $6
Adis314: folds

*** FLOP *** [3h 9c 2c]

carrotsnake: bets $14
Renton555: calls $14

*** TURN *** [3h 9c 2c] [4s]

carrotsnake: bets $31
Renton555: calls $31

*** RIVER *** [3h 9c 2c 4s] [6d]

carrotsnake: bets $129.25 and is all-in
Renton555: calls $129.25

BB never has a higher PP here? I don't see how you are ever good often enough to make this +EV.

Originally Posted by Warpe

BB never has 33 here? I don't see how you are ever good often enough to make this +EV.

FYP

Renton, I've played with that nit before and I have never seen him do anything that would cause me to not give him credit for a hand here.

yea i concur, he has to have something, unless he was a random donk with ak that missed and put you on a weak hand and assumed you missed the flop

It's a set or air, but like 90% of the time a set.

This is standard!?

I can't call the turn, i definitely can't call the river.

Originally Posted by Warpe

BB never has a higher PP here?

nah, if he has me beat its with a set

Originally Posted by Renton

Originally Posted by Warpe

BB never has a higher PP here?

nah, if he has me beat its with a set

agreed.

i think he checkraises me on the flop, turn, or river with a set

isn't his line suspicious at all? he donk leads into a preflop raiser on a board that isn't really the best candidate for a set bet/3bet, then leads a blank turn as if he's making a value bet with something like T9, TT, JJ, maybe even 88 or 77, and then overbets all in on a blank river?

Here's why I called, and I felt like it wasn't that close. His line on the flop and turn was consistent with

A. A total bluff, or a semi-bluff with clubs, 45, or 44-88 X percentage of the time.

B. A value line with 9x, TT, JJ Y percentage of the time

C. 33, 99, 22, 44 Z percentage of the time


Given my limited read on the nature of his play I figured that Z was fairly small and X and Y were pretty close to 40ish percent each.

Then when he pushed the river i was suspicious because I know he's going to check call with a huge percentage of that range. If he's good he might even check the river with a set, since my line looks a lot like a draw that missed.

I didn't think he was capable of a bluff here, but if you stacked him, it makes me happy. I hate seeing nits make money.

whether or not i stacked him isn't relevant. This wasn't a read-based play, because I didn't have a read. This is a play based on many generalizations that i have picked up over time, one of which is that people don't donkbet into late position raisers with big hands on bad flops.

Originally Posted by Renton

This wasn't a read-based play, because I didn't have a read. This is a play based on many generalizations that i have picked up over time, one of which is that people don't donkbet into late position raisers with big hands on bad flops.

Honestly I don't really like your thought process here, for a couple of reasons. First of all, you say you called him down based on a generic "read" that you've developed about the way an average player plays poker. When you have a read on a specific player, obviously that immediately supercedes any assumptions you tend to make about an average player. Since you said this guy was tight/nitty, I'd be more likely to give him credit for a big hand and fold the turn.

Second even if he were an unknown at the beginning of the hand, by the river he's not really an unknown anymore. The overbet shove is an unusual play at 200NL, one that most players don't make, and even fewer ever make as a bluff. Really the only players who use this move are the crappy nits who always have a monster here, and the very good players who mix it up well and are a bitch to play against. Even if this guy were the latter type of player, most people don't run outrageous bluffs on unknowns, and if you don't know him he probably doesn't know you either. So when you see that river bet you really need to re-evaluate your read on him and fold IMO. Although, I do agree with you that most players don't lead monsters on dry flops and this is often a bluff. I would definitely call those flop and turn bets against an unknown.

PS: I lead my sets on dry flops a lot. If I don't have any relevant reads on the PFR I usually flip a coin and lead if it's heads, check-raise if it's tails. Check-calling isn't that great IMO unless you know a guy is aggressive enough to fire multiple barrels with nothing which a lot of people aren't.

Renton,

I think your logic that 'people generally don't lead big hands into the preflop raiser on non-scary boards' is mis-applied this hand. First, it's really not an uncommon play at all, especially with the flush and low straight draws out there.

Second, this logic is why we call the flop, and maybe even the turn sometimes. It seems as if you are using the information that you have on the flop (that he leads into you), that is correct a certain percentage of the time, but ignore that he has fired strongly into you now on all 3 streets.

In my experience, you are crushed here the large percentage of the time.

Of course, the river is an interesting card in that it puts 4 to the straight out there, and any 5 on the turn would have had an OESD that completed. Even if it's very unlikely that you have a 5 (which is obviously true), this will certainly slow down some villains and you could put them on air/monster by the river (basically, a straight or nothing). This would favor a call.

All in all though, I think this is a very poorly played hand.

oh well, i guess thats why i made the thread

he had 98