standard turn shove?

forgive me if this is standard. i think it is, but just checking.
villain 22/20/1.4/250

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($73.35)
Hero ($209.65)
BB ($457.60)
UTG ($423)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J.
UTG raises to $8, 1 fold, Hero raises to $28, 1 fold, UTG calls $20.

Flop: ($58) 8, 9, K (2 players)
Hero bets $44, UTG calls $44.

Turn: ($146) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $137.65 (All-In)

um.. no I don't think thats standard at all really. In fact, I probably c/f the turn a lot.

There are tons of hands that are ahead of us on this flop that aren't folding to your turn push.

AsK, KQs, AAs, AsQs and maybe even QQs isn't folding, and would all potentially play preflop and flop exactly the same way.

The only hands that I think we're realistically ahead of based on preflop are AsQ or maybe like TTs.

If villain was button instead of UTG, I'd say the turn push isn't so bad. But given that villain is UTG I think his range is more heavily weighted to hands that are ahead of us and that aren't folding.

well i thought AsAx would want to get it in on the flop, as well as AsKx, and definitely KK. i really think QsQx is folding this, because it draws either to 2 or 9 outs. And if you put KsQs in his range why not AJ?

this is only 4 handed so his UTG and button ranges arent that much different.

i kinda like c/c the flop.

This is a really interesting hand IMO, because I think I really don't like c/c very much at all. It may be a flop c/f.

Call me crazy but im not sure that bet/fold, bet isnt better than c/c. I'm still going to have to think about it more though.

I think you have to bet this flop as you did.

You are still ahead of any reasonable 3bet calling range & have the iniative but I think if he shoved flop it would be an easy fold.
& I also think the turn is an easy check fold.

Explanation below -

Out of the hands he would shove flop with
- you are too far behind 27 combos
AA with s (3) AK with As(3) KQ with Qs(3) QQ with s (3) 88/99/KK (9) AQ with 1spade (6)
- you are barely break even vs 21 combos
(9 combos of AK with no As & 9 combos of KQ with no Qs, 3 combos of AA no spade, 3 combos QQ no s)
- You are only ahead of 5 combos
3 combos of TT with a spade , 2 combos of AJ with As

Therefore it would be an easy fold.


As played on turn it is an easy check fold I think, you are only ahead of TT or AQ with a spade, Maybe AsJc/AsJd & only have good fold equity vs 3 combos of QQ with a spade (14 out of up to 56 combos)

- Edit, yes you're right, maybe at 200nl guys would fold some KQ or AK combos they might show up at turn with as you suggested below to a turn bet. I still think check fold is probably best.

okay yes there are a ton of things im behind, but i think a lot of those fold turn shove and/or they wouldve shoved over flop. i think i have a lot of fold equity with a turn shove. i am not positive he lays down AK no spade but i think in the end he would.

betting a little less looks really strong

so if you think you're value-betting I like shoving

if you think he has a better hand (like QQ with Qs or KQ no spade) and want him to fold I'd bet more like 1/2 pot

Originally Posted by will641

okay yes there are a ton of things im behind, but i think a lot of those fold turn shove and/or they wouldve shoved over flop. i think i have a lot of fold equity with a turn shove. i am not positive he lays down AK no spade but i think in the end he would.

I don't agree with your logic on the flop shove.

Why would AsA, AsK, KQs, AsQs shove this flop? They likely have the best hand AND they also likely have the best draw. It woudn't make much sense for them to push these hands, cause you're likely not gonna call with worse here, and if they are ahead there are like no turn cards that will scare them. So they might as well call and get you to push with worse (ie: JJs or TTs or something)

It makes some sense for a hand like AsQ to push for fold equity and a hand like AK no spades to push to protect. If anything I would think we're in BETTER shape facing a flop push than a flop call who's clearly not afraid of what turn cards might come.

Personally, I'd check-raise the flop just to see where I stood and then shut down after that if he sticks around. Of course, I'm a newbie so don't pay me any mind lol
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