Stupid AKs hand

I really hate this hand...


Villain/MP just sat down, won a couple of hands, he looked decent so far.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ 0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($12.75)
SB ($13.79)
BB ($50)
Hero ($52.55)
MP ($77.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero raises to $2, MP calls $2, Button calls $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8.25) 3, 2, 6 (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, MP raises to $17, Button folds, BB folds, Hero calls $11.

Turn: ($42.25) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $11, Hero calls $11.

River: ($64.25) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $22.55, Hero calls $22.55 (All-In).

Final Pot: $109.35

Results in white below:
Hero has Ad Kd (one pair, kings).
MP has 2c 2h (three of a kind, twos).
Outcome: MP wins $109.35.


Standard raise UTG with AKs, 3 callers and I flop the nut flush draw. What's your play here?

My UTG raise and flopbet into 3 opps must look very scary. Villain's raise means set a lot of the time here IMO. I think pushing is no option, do you call his raise?

I definitely can't fold the turn, do I call the river getting 1-4 pot odds?

flop: push, if he has a set you have 9 outs. He may have a draw, overpair, or just think you're full of shit and the board missed your hand, you have 15 outs here and are ahead.

turn: as played on flop, you have to check/push this

river: as played on turn, fold you really aren't beating anything

So, I managed to screw up on every street .

I don't want to defend a bad line,... but is this allways a push? Villain probably realizes that an UTG raise and Flopbet into 3 opps is a very strong hand. Heads-up I push this everytime, but here? I'm a big dog against a set because of the redraw.

Why push the turn? What does this accomplish, do worse hands call here?

I also think the river is a fold. I was going to fold, until I saw the pot was allready $ 64 plus his bet, and I changed my mind . Didn't want to be a weaktighty. The table was very aggressive. A couple of hands before this one I ended up folding AQs in a raising war preflop. Both villains in that hand ended up all-in preflop, and A8o won the hand with ace high .

tom42,

This is fine.

real men push the flop

pushing is an option, but I dont hero's line here is bad

Originally Posted by Tom42

Why push the turn? What does this accomplish, do worse hands call here?

Since there is so little behind I think you get a call from TT-QQ.

In retrospect I think calling on the turn is OK. You have the pot odds to chase the flush, might as well take it. Because of the river pot odds villain may even call your 1/3 pot push.

Originally Posted by gabe

real men push the flop

I generally take this line against more aggressive players or shitty ones. But not the standards. You think it's a good idea to use this line on players even at these limits Gabe? I find the only time you get reraised at these limits is with a pretty good hand, ie he flopped a straight or set.

Should I use this more often in my own game you think?

/HIJACK

Originally Posted by gabe

real men push the flop

I used to do this but now I'm stopping. In passive 100/200NL games you only ever get called by sets/2pr when you push. I think you need a wild image/players who have see you make this move with marginal hands to make pushing +EV.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

In passive 100/200NL games you only ever get called by sets/2pr when you push.

does that mean they only raise the flop with set/2pr?? if they raise alot then fold to a push, its def. +ev

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

In passive 100/200NL games you only ever get called by sets/2pr when you push.

does that mean they only raise the flop with set/2pr?? if they raise alot then fold to a push, its def. +ev

Yeah thats pretty much all they raise the flop with. The're arent many 200NL players who raise a wide enough range to make pushing the most profitable option. Reasons for raising the flop for your average 200NL plyer: 1) set/2pr, 2) idiotic bluff ---------> way down the list 3) semi-bluffs, draws etc.

Is pushing against a range which is 50% set/2pr, 30% pure bluff more profitable then calling and playing a turn? I'm not ingluding players we have a history with in this reasoning.

I disagree with Irisheyes.

This flop raise is an overpair<KK twice as often as a set. And as Gabe said, if only sets call, then this is a very +EV shove on the flop. However, thats an idyllic reality. Actually, JJ and QQ are usually calling here. Even given that, a push here is still pretty +EV.

I dunno, maybe I've just been unlucky in these situations.

They don't raise very often in 50NL. Usually they call the flop bet and bet the turn when checked to with an overpair <KK. Especially in situations where preflopraiser shows real strength.

Originally Posted by Renton

I disagree with Irisheyes.

This flop raise is an overpair<KK twice as often as a set. And as Gabe said, if only sets call, then this is a very +EV shove on the flop. However, thats an idyllic reality. Actually, JJ and QQ are usually calling here. Even given that, a push here is still pretty +EV.

I agree.

My decision is whether or not I think I have folding equity with a push on the flop. So many players in these games cold call with TT-QQ then will call an allin on the flop that many times, an allin here has zero folding equity.

Once that turn card hits, however, I put it all in as I'm calling a river bet anyway.

Jeff nailed it.

Our opponents are so passive that we vastly over-estimate our folding equity when re-raising them. Hence, it comes down to how much money is behind and how aggressive are they. Against weaker players with lots of money behind, flop pushes aren't optimal and create unnessisary swings in these soft games.

if the villian just sat down and won a couple of pots they probably arent that passive. this is a perfect spot to push flop because villian might thinks they have momentum to win more hands.

nobody is saying open push the flop as our lead move, right? Just standard c-bet stuff until they reraise - THEN we push? I realize I haven't been pushing nearly enough hands lately, as in almost never pushing unless it's preflop with AA...I've been thinking that if i'm getting value calls for pot sized bets anyway, maybe i should be pushing more...

I agree with Jeff, what really matters here is how much FE we have, and at these stakes I dont think we have enough FE to make a flop push more +EV than a call.

especially as he reraises with 4 people to the flop there is almost no fold equity. As played he is pricing you in for the flop and turn but really have to fold the river, he has shown he still likes his hand and QQ/JJ/1010 would probably check behing seeing as the K came

I'm C/Cing the flop, folding if a diamond doesnt come on turn. If you can put opp on a set post flop there doesnt seem to be any point in building a big pot. Draw cheaply or fold it imo.

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

I'm C/Cing the flop.

That's absurd. Easy bet and it's not even close. We have a big pot hand here.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

I'm C/Cing the flop.

That's absurd. Easy bet and it's not even close. We have a big pot hand here.

What's opp calling flop raise with besides straight or a set? Not A/6. I cant see the logic in building a big pot before you hit your hand. I could see raising the flop as a mix up play vs a solid TAG but as a standard line? Doesnt seem +EV to me.

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

What's opp calling flop raise with besides straight or a set

People play bad. Are you unfazed by the "WTF!?!? was he thinking" factor at showdown?

Bet this flop for fold equity because you have no cause to think anyone else hit this. Bet this flop because if you're just called, your 6 over-card outs are probably good too. Bet this flop to build a pot, so you can pot commit someone into calling when you hit. Bet this flop to build up mistrust with the guys who are paying attention (and I'm talking about the single table fish.) Bet this flop because the weak/passive players won't bet big enough to put you to a real decision often enough. Particularly with stuff like sets, that they will stack off with.

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

I'm C/Cing the flop, folding if a diamond doesnt come on turn. If you can put opp on a set post flop there doesnt seem to be any point in building a big pot. Draw cheaply or fold it imo.

Check calling is terrible. As Fnord said, we have a big pot hand here. You want to build the pot so when we make our hand the pot is big and can we can get all in easily.

This isn't a great spot to three bet the flop when a "decent" player raises you on the flop in a four way pot on a pretty coordinated board. Occasionally he could have a worse flush draw or something, maybe even a pair as big as tens or jack testing the waters to see where he is at. On those occasions he may even still call all of his chips off because he has an overpair and can't fold. So in this hand I think calling the flop raise is best. Pretty bad turn card, I would probably just get the rest in with TPTK + the nut flush draw.

Man I hate these threads where I post my thoughts and I cant understand any of the responses.

So jeff/fnord is it better to 3bet-push the flop or call and push the turn?

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

So jeff/fnord is it better to 3bet-push the flop or call and push the turn?

fnord is saying since our opponents are always so passive, they must have a hand here that they aren't folding to a push, so we should call and try to stack them when we hit an out.

if the villian just sat down and already won a few pots i dont think they are that passive.

I'm not trying to sound like a newb but I really dont get this. If villian is only calling flop bets w/ 2 pair/set/straight, and most of the time were not going to draw out, how is it +EV as a standard line?

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

I'm not trying to sound like a newb but I really dont get this. If villian is only calling flop bets w/ 2 pair/set/straight, and most of the time were not going to draw out, how is it +EV as a standard line?

because theres enough dead money in the pot already for us to pick up.

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

I'm not trying to sound like a newb but I really dont get this. If villian is only calling flop bets w/ 2 pair/set/straight, and most of the time were not going to draw out, how is it +EV as a standard line?

and because they call with terrible hands

Originally Posted by gabe

and because they call with terrible hands

What if we can assume villian is a solid TAG in this situation though?

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

Originally Posted by gabe

and because they call with terrible hands

What if we can assume villian is a solid TAG in this situation though?

What's a "Solid TAG"?

Most tight players fold to your bet here often enough.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

Originally Posted by gabe

and because they call with terrible hands

What if we can assume villian is a solid TAG in this situation though?

What's a "Solid TAG"?

Most tight players fold to your bet here often enough.

My question is, if you can put villian on 2 pair/set/straight, are you still making this play with the intention of sucking out vs the better hand on a flushdraw?

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

Originally Posted by gabe

and because they call with terrible hands

What if we can assume villian is a solid TAG in this situation though?

What's a "Solid TAG"?

Most tight players fold to your bet here often enough.

My question is, if you can put villian on 2 pair/set/straight, are you still making this play with the intention of sucking out vs the better hand on a flushdraw?

You have any better ideas when you get called by a better hand?

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

Originally Posted by gabe

and because they call with terrible hands

What if we can assume villian is a solid TAG in this situation though?

What's a "Solid TAG"?

Most tight players fold to your bet here often enough.

My question is, if you can put villian on 2 pair/set/straight, are you still making this play with the intention of sucking out vs the better hand on a flushdraw?

You have any better ideas when you get called by a better hand?

My first would be to stop putting more money in the pot.

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

My first would be to stop putting more money in the pot.

You're not putting $11 into a $30 pot with 2 overcards and the nut flush draw? Ridiculous

Originally Posted by swiggidy

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

My first would be to stop putting more money in the pot.

You're not putting $11 into a $30 pot with 2 overcards and the nut flush draw? Ridiculous

Most of the time you wont hit your flush, and most of the time your overs wont be good. How is that +EV?

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

Originally Posted by swiggidy

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

My first would be to stop putting more money in the pot.

You're not putting $11 into a $30 pot with 2 overcards and the nut flush draw? Ridiculous

Most of the time you wont hit your flush, and most of the time your overs wont be good. How is that +EV?

Aye, cuz frankly, I can see why putting money into a pot or building one when you don't have the best hand would be -Ev.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

Originally Posted by swiggidy

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

My first would be to stop putting more money in the pot.

You're not putting $11 into a $30 pot with 2 overcards and the nut flush draw? Ridiculous

Most of the time you wont hit your flush, and most of the time your overs wont be good. How is that +EV?

Aye, cuz frankly, I can see why putting money into a pot or building one when you don't have the best hand would be -Ev.

No need to get sarcastic, I'm trying to discuss the hand here.

What if villian bets $20 here on turn, are we stacking off w/ 4 outs?

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

What if villian bets $20 here on turn, are we stacking off w/ 4 outs?

Can you please explain why it's only 4?

On the flop you are getting 3:1 which is good enough to chase a flush, especially with two overcards (because there is a possibility they are good). If we had a solid ass read that villain had a set and would not put one more chip in the pot if another diamond came, then yes this would be a fold. You will rarely get this read on-line and I might say never have this read at 50NL.

The flop call is ok, but you have to push the turn.

20% equity is better than 0%, and you aren't folding this on the river ever.

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

I'm not trying to sound like a newb but I really dont get this. If villian is only calling flop bets w/ 2 pair/set/straight, and most of the time were not going to draw out, how is it +EV as a standard line?

If their range to call a flop bet is only two pair or better it's an even easier bet considering that isn't all too likely. If you simply are content to check it down and hope to hit your hand before putting any more money in the pot then you have to be satisfied winning a small pot if you hit your hand (unless you're fortunate enough to walk into a lower flush). It's a very weak passive line and betting the flop with fold equity + tons of outs + a draw to the nuts is much better. Not to mention any observant player will note that you play draws very passively and can easily exploit you. This isn't really a problem at lower stakes since people aren't smart enough nor do they care since bad players are everywhere so they don't have to focus on exploiting one player whom they play against infrequently. Once you start to play with some of the same players on a daily basis they'll usually be smart enough to exploit such obvious leaks.

and because they call with terrible hands

This is true, and that's pretty much why I don't like 3 betting this flop. A flop raise like this They will almost always have a straight / 2 pair / set / overpair and I doubt any of these hands are folding to a 3 bet on the flop down here.

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

So jeff/fnord is it better to 3bet-push the flop or call and push the turn?

fnord is saying since our opponents are always so passive, they must have a hand here that they aren't folding to a push, so we should call and try to stack them when we hit an out.

if the villian just sat down and already won a few pots i dont think they are that passive.

k ty, yeah fnord is saying what I was trying to say.

I don't think there is enough information supplied to try and form a idea of how the villan plays. He could have just sat down and had aces 5 times in a row. Thats why I'm thinking of it as if we're playing an average unknown.

Originally Posted by aislephive

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

I'm not trying to sound like a newb but I really dont get this. If villian is only calling flop bets w/ 2 pair/set/straight, and most of the time were not going to draw out, how is it +EV as a standard line?

If their range to call a flop bet is only two pair or better it's an even easier bet considering that isn't all too likely. If you simply are content to check it down and hope to hit your hand before putting any more money in the pot then you have to be satisfied winning a small pot if you hit your hand (unless you're fortunate enough to walk into a lower flush). It's a very weak passive line and betting the flop with fold equity + tons of outs + a draw to the nuts is much better. Not to mention any observant player will note that you play draws very passively and can easily exploit you. This isn't really a problem at lower stakes since people aren't smart enough nor do they care since bad players are everywhere so they don't have to focus on exploiting one player whom they play against infrequently. Once you start to play with some of the same players on a daily basis they'll usually be smart enough to exploit such obvious leaks.

Alright thanks, that makes sense.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

I don't think there is enough information supplied to try and form a idea of how the villan plays. He could have just sat down and had aces 5 times in a row. Thats why I'm thinking of it as if we're playing an average unknown.

i think it is just enough info to lead me towards pushing.

if somehow we knew that pushing and calling had the same exact +EV, it is better to push. taking the more aggressive lines is good for metagame. people that say there is no metagame at low stakes are kidding themselves.

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

I don't think there is enough information supplied to try and form a idea of how the villan plays. He could have just sat down and had aces 5 times in a row. Thats why I'm thinking of it as if we're playing an average unknown.

i think it is just enough info to lead me towards pushing.

if somehow we knew that pushing and calling had the same exact +EV, it is better to push. taking the more aggressive lines is good for metagame. people that say there is no metagame at low stakes are kidding themselves.

Sure there is some metagame, but very very little and you shouldn't consider sacrificing EV for metagame considerations at Party 50nl. It's beyond retarded.

If it were the case that both lines are equal in EV, then it's probably better to push for metagame, but that also comes with super high variance and I severely doubt that the lines are equal in EV. This is never a flat out bluff and little of his range do you have any FE against.

Originally Posted by aislephive

This is never a flat out bluff and little of his range do you have any FE against.

agree to disagree?

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by aislephive

This is never a flat out bluff and little of his range do you have any FE against.

agree to disagree?

Which part?

From what I've read the 'correct' answer concerning pushing the flop seems to be, as always, 'it depends'. I don't think pushing was the best decision in this spot.

IMO a far better spot to push was following hand :

No reads on villain, this was his seventh hand, but it was threehanded and I had been bullying him pretty much every hand since he sat down. He must get the feeling I'm running him over, so he could be minraising me with any jack, lower pocket pair or ever air. I have alot more folding equity here.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($51.05)
Button ($15.25)
Hero ($80.20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
Button calls $0.50, Hero (poster) raises to $2.25, BB calls $2, Button calls $2.

Flop: ($7.50) J, 4, 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $6, BB raises to $12, Button folds, Hero raises to $50, BB folds.

Final Pot: $69.50

Results in white below:
No showdown. Hero wins $69.50.


Anyway, thanks for the interesting discussion.

Originally Posted by Tom42

I had been bullying him pretty much every hand since he sat down.

bingo

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

bingo

Next hand the bullying really paid off :

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($36.55)
BB ($12.75)
Hero ($96.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero raises to $2, SB (poster) calls $36.30 (All-In), BB calls $12.25 (All-In), Hero calls $34.55.

Flop: ($85.85) K, 4, 4 (3 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($85.85) 7 (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($85.85) A (3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $85.85

Results in white below:
SB has Js Jc (two pair, jacks and fours).
BB has 8s 8d (two pair, eights and fours).
Hero has Qh Qs (two pair, queens and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins $85.85.