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Ok, here's where i defend myself. Danny thinks the turn is a fold, i disagree.
I don't get why you wouldn't post stats, Danny. This guy (according to Danny) was 25/14, AF 2, 560 hand sample. His only read is that he is "kinda fishy."
Here is my thought process on this hand:
Preflop: i agree this guy probably doesn't have AA or QQ. I'm sure everyone here agrees that this looks like a pocket pair. The only other hand i could think of is AQ (slimmer possibility KQ), which would make a lot of sense actually. A lot of times when i see this play the opponent will show up with 88-JJ.
I'm leaning towards AQ, JJ-88 as a heavy part of his range. But Iowobviously 22-77 are als a part and maybe AJs and KQs.
Flop: The fact that he called your bet doesn't change that much. On a flop like that, he wasn't planning on folding. i'd say that 22-JJ are still possibilities here, as well as AQ/KQ and AJ that has a FD.
Turn: Danny, i'm sure you agree with me up until this point. And i agree with the check here, although betting wouldn't be bad either (you still may get calls from JJ-99, which will probably check behind the river).
But i think you are putting his betting range way too tight. This isn't just 44, 66, KQ and AQ, dude. This isn't a bluff either. Although this bet may not make sense to you with a JJ-88 or worse type of hand, it may make sense to him. I don't think you can throw JJ-88 out of his range with that bet because he's probably "protecting his hand" or thinks his hand is good here. To you, this logic may make no sense, but to him, it very well could, especially if he's "kinda a fish" like you said.
I call this down. The pot is pretty big already, and by calling the turn there's no way you can fold the river because you'll be too commited at that point (although if he bets the river his range is narrowed down a whole lot more). Folding is too nitty especially from an aggro player like you who probably has an image of three-betting at least a bit lightly.
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