Stupid HU hand but still unsure

Villain in the hand i have never played hu. I have played him in 6max however. I'd classify him as semi loose pre, very aggressive postflop. I've seen him triple barrel air on two seperate occassions one where the board just came out dry blanks and one where flop was low and an overcard came on the turn, river draws missed. I'd assume he's calling this 3bet pre pretty wide. Its safe to assume he'll bluff raise flops but not sure about this one.

Curious what you guys do here.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($5050)
SB ($5000)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
SB bets $150, Hero raises to $500, SB calls $350

Flop: ($1000) J, K, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $650, SB raises to $1950

I can't imagine folding this hand vs the villain described. I feel like he could be FoS, but the board is too drawy to call OOP so I usually just end up shipping.

I've definitely seen KQ in this spot before too, given the drawiness of the board.

i wonder how bad calling is

Shooooovvveeee. I'm not pumped about it but you probably have like 45% equity against his range so your comitted.

how could you not shove this? he can have so many worse 1 pair hands

Originally Posted by gabe

how could you not shove this? he can have so many worse 1 pair hands

This imo

if your saying bare one pair hands i can't think of any actually.

Do you think villain is raising here as a bluff or for value? It's possible villain will raise KQ/KT in this spot but I think that is the only hands I can think of that we beat that he reraises for value. Other hands obv in his value range are: 99, J9s, KJ, K9s, and QT (I'm giving him suited but he may defend unsuited if you've been 3betting heavily).

Does villain ever flat out bluff in this spot? Probably not given he's put in 1/2 his stack. AhJh, AhTh, Th8h, QhJh, JhTh, AhQh and maybe Jh8h all are possibilities and maybe other Axh/Qxh hands but who knows.

Best possible case with all draws:

Board: Js Kh 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.977% 62.70% 00.27% 34763 151.50 { 99, AhJh, AhTh, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KTs+, QhJh, QTs, JhTh, J9s, Jh8h, Th8h, KTo+, QTo }
Hand 1: 37.023% 36.75% 00.27% 20374 151.50 { AsKd }

We're getting 3-1 on a call so folding couldn't be good, if we stick it in we'd be risking 3950 to win 7550 or like 1.91. It's pretty close, since we only need like 34% equity to get it in; I don't see myself folding but maybe we should. Maybe call the raise and shove any non-heart turn?

Originally Posted by Massimo

if your saying bare one pair hands i can't think of any actually.

theres only a single one pair hand ahead of yours, right?

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by Massimo

if your saying bare one pair hands i can't think of any actually.

theres only a single one pair hand ahead of yours, right?

I'm just saying i dont think he's value betting worse. If he was raising a one pair hand he probably has 9 outs.

Jeff, you basically outlined my exact thoughts. Theres basically no way this is a pure bluff. Your range is pretty good, its possible there could be more draws. like low fds.

The thing about calling is that i have no idea what his turn shoving range will be. And then what happens if he checks back the turn on a blank and then shoves the river on a blank? Do i call? What if a T or Q comes and he shoves? I seriously doubt i can play this situation well. So i really feel like the option is shove or fold. I didnt really ever consider calling then shoving the turn, but the thing is unless he's retarded he's not gonna call with a heart draw so wouldnt you rather him get it in on the flop, behind, with that type of hand? i could be wrong

yea he has 9 outs, and all those hands that have 9 outs that hes raising with are going to call a shove

Seems like a really sick spot. Shoving sucks because you're not crushing most of his calling range, right? And calling sucks because there are so many bad cards that can come.

I think that calling just leads to more, and more expensive mistakes. You said it yourself, don't know what to do against any further aggression. If it won't be profitable to continue, then don't continue. End the hand here, with either a shove or a fold.

As for deciding whether to push or fold, I think you have to do the math, as that's what it comes down to. Time to break out poker stove and really think about his range.

EDIT: Probably should mention that one buyin at my stakes isn't even a small blind in this hand, so maybe my thoughts are completely awful here. :s

how about CR the flop?

not saying i d do it...

hes semi loose and very aggro....the only way i could think not to shove is if he thinks youre a huge nit or something

Originally Posted by Massimo

I didnt really ever consider calling then shoving the turn, but the thing is unless he's retarded he's not gonna call with a heart draw so wouldnt you rather him get it in on the flop, behind, with that type of hand? i could be wrong

This is actually something calculable. Given there is 2500 behind and a pot of 5000, he's getting 3:1 on a call so he cant fold any combo draw of any kind on the turn. Our equity actually increases on the turn given the same range before on a blank. You can effectively decide what the turn will bring before we make a move all in with our hand. If we call the raise and the turn is a heart then its a fairly easy c/f, same thing on any Q or T.

Even if he only calls the turn AI with:

99, AhJh, AhTh, KTs+, QhJh, QTs, JhTh, J9s, Jh8h, Th8h, KTo+, QTo

Our equity doesn't change at all from the flop on a blank (I'm using 2d) and probably is better if we don't know what his turn shoving range will be like. We'll also take the pot down 7/56 or 13% of the time when we shove the turn which should give us a little bit of cushion over shoving the flop.

Hope this makes sense and hope its right :P

i dont generally stop and go in cash games but this is a really good spot for it

c/fing T/J/Q/heart obv

crazy