swings...(not a LC post)

i was just browsing around and found this gem from a long time ago.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...t=1&PHPSESSID=

thought i'd just bring it up, it's a very good read, and the spreadsheet is cool.

actually, now that we're at it, i'm curious about the standard deviation for some of the players on FTR, especially players at the $200 level or higher.

after Jager's thread, where he's stacking off QQ and AK every hand preflop, i can't imagine how that affects his variance.

FWIW, in my past 10k hands my standard deviation is hovering at 45.7ptbb/100.

People suck at figuring out how they're doing and how win-rate isn't a static thing.

Are you getting maximum value out of your good hands or are you blowing people out of the pot and/or missing bets because you're too chicken shit on the river?

Are you sitting in good seats at good tables?

Are you playing at an unfamiliar stake/site? You're going to take some knocks until you figure out the quirks of the regulars.

Are you just plain getting coolered for big pots?

Are you getting out-played?

Playing tougher tables with just regulars is ok to do every now and then, but it's going to hurt your score short-term.

Are you in the best frame of mind? Are you working on playing better poker when things aren't going well? Are you quiting early when things aren't going well and putting in an extra hour or two when you're on top of things? Many people do the opposite and this has always been a growth area for me.

Are you getting reads? Are you misreading people?

Are you bluffing often enough? Too often? Looking people up every now and then?

Take accountablility for your results even medium term and figure out what's going on.

great post fnord. good answer for most posts on downswinging or winrates imo.

hyper, for the last ~40k hands at nl400, mine is 43. i bet it was a lot lower b4 UIEGA...i miss pokerroom!!!
but i also have quite a few leaks still. i think its in the lower range of that link mostly from game/seat selection, and at times playing more passive then optimal.

great post Fnord!

actually i'm on a heater right now, so this is not a bitching post. i just came across this thread and i thought it was pretty cool.

benny, i actually expected a 400NL player to be higher than 43, so i guess your table selection is making a big difference here.

the 2p2 thread is great

Fnord's post is gold and should be stickied imo in the "strategies" forum. No rocket science, but the EXACT questions you should always be asking yourself, whether you're on a heater or a downswing.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

the 2p2 thread is great

Fnord's post is gold and should be stickied imo in the "strategies" forum. No rocket science, but the EXACT questions you should always be asking yourself, whether you're on a heater or a downswing.

Good questions fer sher.

But anyone got the frakkin answers?


2p2 link was good too. Thanks Hyper.