Theory exercise

BU and BB are playing 1/2 NL 6 max. BU is a looser sort of regular who plays with a 40% attempt to steal blinds and plays pretty straight forward on flops: Bets most air and good hands, checks back medium and weak hands. BB is a regular-type too but slightly looser of a cold caller from the blinds than people may be used to seeing.

Folds to BU who standard opens to $6. SB folds and BB calls. The flop comes Ts7s3c. BB checks and BU fires out a cbet of $10. BB calls. Pot is $33.

Here is the exercise:
1. What turn card is the best for the BB and why?
2. What turn card is the best for BU and why?

I'd have said best turn card for BB would be Js. That gives him the strongest range on the turn full of straights, flushes and 2P hands.

Best turn card for BTN is less clear to me, but something like Kd would be good. He can easily have missed overcards that did a std cbet, put in a large turn bet to get BB to fold a lot of draws and credibly 3barrel if called again.

not sure if BB has a flush draw here, ben
I'd say an offsuit jack is stronger than a spade jack

ace of spades is the strongest for the button

It would help a lot to know the BB's tendencies postflop, but assuming he plays a wider range a hands, I'm also going to assume he is going to be c/r the flop quite a bit w/ pretty much all of his draws, especially if he knows the BTN checks back all of his marginal showdown value hands. Given all that, I think a 7 is the best card for the BB. BTN can't continue w/ any of his air range as BB will have plenty of 7's in his range, and BTN can't really have a 7 if we are assuming he checks back his weaker made hands.

As far as the best card for the BTN, I think most of it depends on what he thinks of BB's flatting vs checkraising range. If BB is more passive w/ draws then As Js 6s are all bad cards, if BTN assumes BB is agro w/ draws they all become good ones. Without this information I think I'd go with an offsuit king being the best card for BTN since it helps the BB's perceived range less often than any card except an ace, and because BTN would check behind an ace on the flop...if BB is perceptive I'm assuming he'll know this. ALSO, a king hurts hands like 88/99/7x/Tx the most because now a ton of BTN's range has a gutter at worst when firing the turn, hands picking up draws being: AJ/AQ/Q9/QJ, plus a ton of his range also picked up a pair.

Am I the only one who thinks it narrows BTN's range significantly when he cbets this flop?

I think Marshall is spot on so far

Originally Posted by Parasurama

Am I the only one who thinks it narrows BTN's range significantly when he cbets this flop?

I agree as well! Another 10 would be golden on the turn for button, since I think he would be CBetting with nothing less than top pair on this board.

BB is the one who can represent a lot of turn cards though. I think the Ks would be nice though. Dunno why!

BTW, these exercises have been very valuable in looking at ranges and figuring out in how you can have a perceived range on certain cards that come out...plus in getting insight on some of you pros here. Keep at them!

Originally Posted by bjsaust

I'd have said best turn card for BB would be Js. That gives him the strongest range on the turn full of straights, flushes and 2P hands.

Best turn card for BTN is less clear to me, but something like Kd would be good. He can easily have missed overcards that did a std cbet, put in a large turn bet to get BB to fold a lot of draws and credibly 3barrel if called again.

These were my thoughts exactly.

I've just got a sec so here goes.

1. I'll say Th/Td. This narrows the BU's range of good hands without changing much else. Now BU has a lot of air and BB has a lot of medium strength holdings?

2. I'll say Kc. Improves a crapload of the BU's range both in playability and actual hand strength (if that makes any sense) without improving the BB as much and making it harder to play 2 more streets OOP.

Ty Marshall I have learned something new....

..., def gonna give more thought to quality of cards to come when comparing a passive to an aggro player

Interesting example of where I tend to apply my own unorthodox lines to others (and an example of where I shouldn't play that way). I like the analysis guys, thanks.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

1. What turn card is the best for the BB and why?
2. What turn card is the best for BU and why?

1. 6s because theres a ton of straights/flushes in his range
if bb raises draws pre, then id say another T.
2. red king because it doesnt improve vills range and improves a ton of ours. if bb raises draws pre, then id say Ks.

Going to try to answer without reading previous comments

1. I think the best card is the Jx with x not being a spade. BU is obviously cbetting all spade draws and he can have a ton but BB doesn't have as many spade draws in his range and if he did he'd be raising a ton of them on the flop because basically all of them are combo draws including overs + FD. This also contradicts him having an OESD but I think he can flat here on the flop knowing that the BU can 3bet him often.

2. I think the best card is a K of not spades. At first I kept wanting to go with Ks but that kind of lowers the amount of Ks hands we have and we can have KsXs as well as like AsQs so it will help our range a ton instead of theirs.

ISF: plz more of these.

Originally Posted by Marshall28

ISF: plz more of these.

Agreed. Meaning more theory posts as well as more "this card helps my range/this card helps his range" stuff as I seem to be pretty bad at it.

BB's best card is a 7, marshall described why well.

Button best card is a K imo (a Ks may be better if you think the player is likely to c/r bluff fds). Since most players aren't slowplaying this board, you can form your range easily to give the opponent a beat down. If he's going to call the turn too much you can value bet really thinly and other hands with good equity will get to see a river, or if he's folding too much (which is more likely) you can just bluff everything, most will have some sort of equity.

A queen might be better if you think it's going to get more credit.

My take:

I agree 100% with Max and Marshall.

BB's best card is a 7. BU would likely check behind any 7's he had on the flop while BB would almost surely call them all. I'd say second place is an 8x.

BU's best card is clearly a Ks or a Qs. Completing the flush draw is better for BU simply because BU has more suited cards in his range preflop than BB. The board is very important here. While we expect BB to have suited connectors and possibly gappers in his range, BU could have something like Kxs. Qxs, J8s, etc. On the other hand, its much harder for a suited connector to hit this flop (he can't have 76ss,87ss, T9ss, etc. Because of this, a Ts7c3s flop is better for BB). And because its possible BB could raise the flop with a fd, while BU is always betting them. In other words, BB has less flushes in his range than BU.

Explaining why other answers are wrong:
1. Ax or s best for BU: An ace is actually a bad card for BU, because he will check behind some ace highs, as well as A7/A3, so his cbetting range doesnt have many aces in them. On the other hand, BB has a lot of aces highs A7/A3 that he check/calls the flop with. An Ace may in fact be the 2nd best card for BB, its close between an Ace, 8, or 9.

2. T is the best card for BB: I'd say this is a neutral card. BB has just as many T's as BU. But a factor not touched yet is that a T does not significantly increase the chances that BB will win the hand. If a T comes on the turn and BB has T9 he is now beating only four more hands, AA-JJ. On the other hand, if a 7 came, BB would now be beating 88/99, all T's, and AA/JJ.

Marshalls post touches on another factor no one talked about: How do turn cards affect how passive or aggressive either player will be. If BB feels he is ahead of BU range, he will want him to be more aggro on the turn. If BB feels he is behind BU's range, he will want BU to be more passive on the turn.


So what?: Here's some information you probably didn't know was true; if I'm button I am never double barrell bluffing on a 7. The only way I'd double barrel a 7 is if BB always leads his 7x's if he hits a 7 on the turn. Here's some information you also probably didn't know is true; I double barrel like a monkey on Ks turns. Why? Because unless BB wants to make a hero call or has KT, he is going to have to make a hero call on the turn and possibly river. Also, if an observer with incomplete information on both BB and BU's hands tried to weigh the % chance of BU and BB winning the hand, a Ks would increase BU's chances the most, while a 7 would increase BB's chances the most.

What did we learn:

Concept: Build pots when you are ahead of an opponents range, keep pots small when you are behind an opponents range.

Expression of concept: Double barrel cards that statistically increase your chance of winning the hand (strengthen your range), check behinds cards that statistically decrease your chance of winning the hand (bad for your range)

I don't check back ace high here, is this a leak? I end up cbetting 75% of flops because of this.

without looking at other responses i say As for stealer and an offsuit jack for BB. Assuming 'best' means 'strengthens his range the most'.

the responses make sense but i'm with iopq in not checking back ax, which would make an ace real good for me. And now i think about it more, J isn't nearly as good a card as 7 for BB, in fact it can be bad as now a lot of BUs Jx hands have caught up.

someone please explain the logic behind checking Ax, along with the plan for different cards that can come on the turn.

that's because you play FR
in heads up ace high is often the best hand
in 6m it's sometimes the best hand
in FR it's never the best hand because the caller has a pocket pair!

yeah thats what i was thinking

Ace high being the best hand is more reason to check it behind. I don't always check behind Ace high but I do it more than I bet it.

Nice read
A+

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

While we expect BB to have suited connectors and possibly gappers in his range, BU could have something like Kxs. Qxs, J8s, etc. On the other hand, its much harder for a suited connector to hit this flop (he can't have 76ss,87ss, T9ss, etc. Because of this, a Ts7c3s flop is better for BB)

Do you mean better for BU?

I think this talk about which hand you have to bet these or any flop is flawed.

When I decide to cbet a flop it has nothing to do with my exact holding, but whether or not this flop hit my range in this spot v. the likely hood that villain will do what I need him to do in this spot and in future spots similar to this so that I can extract max value both now and/or later.

Great thread BTW

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

BU's best card is clearly a Ks or a Qs. Completing the flush draw is better for BU simply because BU has more suited cards in his range preflop than BB. The board is very important here. While we expect BB to have suited connectors and possibly gappers in his range, BU could have something like Kxs. Qxs, J8s, etc. On the other hand, its much harder for a suited connector to hit this flop (he can't have 76ss,87ss, T9ss, etc. Because of this, a Ts7c3s flop is better for BB). And because its possible BB could raise the flop with a fd, while BU is always betting them. In other words, BB has less flushes in his range than BU.

Why can't BB have 76ss 87ss 98ss 68ss 69ss J8ss J9ss? Are we just assuming he's c/r or leading all those hands?

I feel like your argument makes more sense if the board is Ts7s3c since that really narrows down the possible SC BB calls with pre that picked up a FD.

Or does this have more to do w/ the fact that you are just assuming BB puts in a raise w/ these hands since they all have additional equity besides just a FD added to the fact that BTN has more hands like K5ss and Q6ss that BB can't have?

I have kind of a random question for you also, how are you playing hands like 76ss here, or any middle pair plus flush draw, say you have KJss on AsKd5s board OOP. In either case are you just trying to pump money into the pot? I've felt confused as to the best lines in those types of situations when my c/r on flop is peeled since I feel like my hand is a bit too strong to continue betting turns that don't improve me. This isn't the case when I have bottom pair + FD since I know my hand just doesn't have enough showdown value and I feel comfortable barreling, but like the KJss one is a real problem I've been running into lately.

Originally Posted by kmind

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

While we expect BB to have suited connectors and possibly gappers in his range, BU could have something like Kxs. Qxs, J8s, etc. On the other hand, its much harder for a suited connector to hit this flop (he can't have 76ss,87ss, T9ss, etc. Because of this, a Ts7c3s flop is better for BB)

Do you mean better for BU?

No I mean BB. It wasnt entirely clear but neither player can have 87ss, but this holding is more likely for BB than BU based on range size.

and flop action

Marshall hopefully that answered the confusion, neither player can have 76ss on a Ts7s3c flop for obvious reasons.

Originally Posted by Jager

I think this talk about which hand you have to bet these or any flop is flawed.

When I decide to cbet a flop it has nothing to do with my exact holding, but whether or not this flop hit my range in this spot v. the likely hood that villain will do what I need him to do in this spot and in future spots similar to this so that I can extract max value both now and/or later.

Great thread BTW

The reasoning of betting based on your hand isnt flawed. As much as I love not caring about my hand, whether or not to cbet a flop is nearly entirely dependent on what our actual hand is. Only on fringe type cbet or checks do other factors sway it enough to change the decision.

i agree precisely with ISFs answer

Originally Posted by nutsinho

i agree precisely with ISFs answer

oh hi

I think a few people got confused reading ISF's response.

Awesome thread.

Marshall just saw your random question:

Obviously it really depends but when in doubt of what to do I just pump because we are ahead or close behind anything he could have.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by kmind

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

While we expect BB to have suited connectors and possibly gappers in his range, BU could have something like Kxs. Qxs, J8s, etc. On the other hand, its much harder for a suited connector to hit this flop (he can't have 76ss,87ss, T9ss, etc. Because of this, a Ts7c3s flop is better for BB)

Do you mean better for BU?

No I mean BB. It wasnt entirely clear but neither player can have 87ss, but this holding is more likely for BB than BU based on range size.

Completely misread your response. I thought you typed the original board out. Gotcha now, My bad.