|
Theory Post- Thin Value Betting
So... the other day I was reading a couple threads on 2p2 about some CONTROVERSIAL msnl and hsnl topics- "the two-way bet" and "merging your range."
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...0167797&page=1
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...0#Post10144378
I donno, when I read these two threads a lot of it seemed like a bunch of bullshit and random arguments over terminology, but I think the most important concepts were in the HSNL thread and were said by Durr and Jman, which is basically "If you can make a value bet, which according to an opponent's range, hovers around 0 ev, you should definitely make it. Call it a "pressure bet" because while it doesn't make you immediate profits it allows you to not get bluffed/outplayed and makes your opponent's hand ranges easier to read while it makes yours more difficult." There are examples/discussion in the thread and I'm guessing this is one of the more important attributes winning msnl and hsnl players have...
So what I got out of this was one important thing: in today's (tougher) games, everytime I have the opportunity to bet with a hand which rates to be the best hand 50% of the time when I am called I should DEFINITELY make the bet, and I should even err on the side of betting too wide a range because of the metagame/ability to tilt people that its going to cause. That means if we know an opponent is going to conceivably call down with ace high on a 9s 8s 4c 2h Jd board say, we can bet with A4 or 55+ or something similar to that, which is pretty mindblowing I think.
So thats really just my preface/something to think about. The post I am actually trying to make is an anthology of spots where I attempt to vbet in what I perceive to be "thin spots." There are definitely thinner spots than this, these are just a few pretty recent ones. There will be a few where I get called by better, some where I get called by worse (Also, as you do this more and more often and more and more effectively, your image gets better and you can value bet worse and worse on all streets... think of Gabe). What I am trying to get across is just in general people at SSNL here on FTR have great fundamentals, but I think one of the single biggest leaks people have, which accounts for the 1.5 PT BB/100 winrates and such at 25, 50, 100 and 200nl is constantly missing thin value, which is going to improve your image and allow us to tilt the donks, regs and everyone in between...
Now I donno if a lot of people on FTR think OMG STD to a lot of these but I know I see a ton of people on the forums posting hands where they fail to bet in spots a loooot more clear cut than this. We only have to win 50% of the time when called. This something I am working on a lot, and its one of the things which is going to decide whether I will be a solid winner in bigger games in the months/years to come...
Hand 1: CO is a 23/33 or something bad LAG
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP ($108.40)
CO ($491.85)
Hero ($3053.35)
SB ($1063.50)
BB ($600)
UTG ($681)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K , Q .
2 folds, CO raises to $12, Hero raises to $39, 2 folds, CO calls $27.
Flop: ($87) 4 , K , 6 (2 players)
CO bets $24, Hero raises to $114, CO calls $90.
Turn: ($315) 3 (2 players)
CO bets $24, Hero raises to $102, CO calls $78.
River: ($519) 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $339,
Hand 2: Villain is a 20/11 mediocre TAG
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Button ($182.25)
SB ($803.60)
BB ($171.20)
Hero ($1797.10)
MP ($600)
CO ($2535.90)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9 , 9 .
Hero raises to $24, MP calls $24, 4 folds.
Flop: ($57) 2 , 3 , 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $39, MP calls $39.
Turn: ($135) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $87, MP calls $87.
River: ($309) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $150,
Hand 3: Villain is a 55/4 genuine loose passive
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP ($653.85)
Button ($633)
SB ($222.90)
BB ($539.85)
Hero ($1166.80)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A , A .
Hero raises to $24, 1 fold, Button calls $24, 1 fold, BB calls $18.
Flop: ($75) 3 , 5 , 4 (3 players)
BB bets $54, Hero calls $54, Button calls $54.
Turn: ($237) 5 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $132, Button folds, BB calls $132.
River: ($501) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $330,
Hand 4: Villain is DaTrip a 21/15 TAG reg
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP ($600)
Button ($708.30)
SB ($3091.95)
BB ($609)
Hero ($1241)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7 , 5 .
Hero raises to $24, 2 folds, SB calls $21, 1 fold.
Flop: ($54) Q , T , 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $39, SB calls $39.
Turn: ($132) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $129, SB calls $129.
River: ($390) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $170,
Hand 5: Villain is Anakinso a 30/23 thinking LAG
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Hero ($600)
UTG ($1980.75)
Button ($755)
SB ($751)
Preflop: Hero is BB with T , 9 .
2 folds, SB raises to $24, Hero calls $18.
Flop: ($48) 5 , 7 , 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $33, SB calls $33.
Turn: ($114) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $60, SB calls $60.
River: ($234) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $153,
Soooo... post which ones you think I won, which I lost, and what villain's most likely hands were... obviously if you feel like it, Im kind of thinking out loud on this issue...
|