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I'm sure you guys are right but just my own opinion.
I think a raise on the flop (because we have position) is the best way to go with this hand on this board.
If you raise on the flop
a) he might fold - you reckon you have decent fold equity in this spot & raising your draw here lets you take advantage of that.
b)he might call and
b1) check to you on turn (most likely with avg. hand, - they call flop re-evaluate turn.)
- you could hit one of your 6-8 outs (which are disguised so might get paid off easily.)
- a flush card may hit 7+ outs that you can bluff at, (you should have good fold equity again in this spot)
- another card may hit say an A but you can check behind and see the river for free. (because of flop raise.)
b2) He may bet the turn
- you hit one your well disguised outs and stack him
- you are forced to fold but if you just called flop you might have had to fold to turn bet anyway. (So you only lose your flop raise which was actually +ev in the longterm if your fold equity was there.)
- you can shove or raise bluff out I havent thought this option through.
c) he can shove flop
- you wont have odds to call your draw, so this is the best move that villian can make, but if your estimation of your fold equity was near correct it doesnt matter & + you gain ev for when you raise the flop with a made hand (like set) because he may be more likely to shove thinking he has more equity (standard and fold) vs your range in this spot than he really has.
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