So in that case doesn't the doubt have to be put in the EV calculation? So if your doubt that your beat makes you think it's -EV then it's -EV. I'm sure Hollingol gets it wrong sometimes but you have to take your best most educated guess.

What my understanding to your arguement is is that since we really can't make an accurate EV calculation at all in certain situations because of a lot of factors we should just "find a better spot." The blurriness could be +EV or -EV no? But as far as I can tell you are saying that more times than not when you make a questionable decision its -EV?