Tough spot with AK, 200bb deep in squeezed pot

Original raiser is 34/30 over 60 hands.

Cold caller I have at 29/20 with 5.3% 3bet over a small sample. Seems like standard tagg... kinda high won@sd over those 100 or so hands thus far.



No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($279.10)
SB ($100.50)
Hero (BB) ($197.05)
UTG ($69.60)
MP ($189.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
1 fold, MP bets $3, Button calls $3, 1 fold, Hero raises $14, 1 fold, Button calls $12

Flop: ($33.50) A, 6, J (2 players)
Hero bets $18, Button calls $18

Turn: ($69.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $37.55, Button calls $37.55

River: ($144.60) 9 (2 players)
Hero ?

Pot is 144 and Ive got 126 behind and I want to c/f

edit: I made it 15 pre but converter says 14

what's ur image like? c/f seems fine unless your kind of crazy

bet

eh shove for value. u are ahead here a large %.

BF $52

Originally Posted by Pioneer

BF $52

.

bet/fold $52, for real????????

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

bet/fold $52, for real????????

What hands do you put in his range that would want to bluff-raise river?
How much FE would Villian think he has with those hands given action and Pot Odds hero would be getting?

How many worse hands than AK are calling a value shove?
How many might call a 1/3 pot bet?

What worse hands am I expecting to get called by here..... AQ? That seems a bit far fetched with little to no history for 200bbs.

Originally Posted by gametight

What worse hands am I expecting to get called by here..... AQ? That seems a bit far fetched with little to no history for 200bbs.

What better hands do you expect got to the river like this without raising that beat ours?

I don't mind a 1/3rd-1/2 pot size bet here.

Originally Posted by griffey24

What better hands do you expect got to the river like this without raising that beat ours?

I don't mind a 1/3rd-1/2 pot size bet here.

I feel like he can have close to 100% of heart combos that he calls preflop with.

I think he probably checks back all hands Im ahead of ( ie AxQh)

Also, I dont really see anything that "missed" that he could choose to bluff with. In other words, I feel like Id have to give him credit for double floating me with air to bluff the river??

Bet small/fold is sick, but I kinda like.

Originally Posted by gametight

I feel like he can have close to 100% of heart combos that he calls preflop with.

I think he probably checks back all hands Im ahead of ( ie AxQh)

Also, I dont really see anything that "missed" that he could choose to bluff with. In other words, I feel like Id have to give him credit for double floating me with air to bluff the river??

Bet small/fold is sick, but I kinda like.

You wouldn't bet with AxQh on the river if checked to you?

Again, if he has you dominated, other than the flush, why wouldn't he raise? Furthermore, KQ, QJ and possibly J 10 are in his range here (as heart combos go), the odds he flats a re-raise with those?

Again, the more I think about it the more I believe you are ahead, unless its AJ/AA/KhQh/or JJ. Depending on whether you think he will call or raise these hand pre, I would fold/bet respectively.

I would probably c/c but im retarded.

I think you are looking at a flush/AJ or you win. Wide majority of hands he flats all the way down are behind your hand, the more i think about it, the more it's c/c or bet.

y bet turn if your not gonna bet river, how bout c/c turn and see what he does on river. what hands can he have that calls your 3 bet? Your way ahead or way behind.

I feel like a donk but I'd b/f like $28.

Does everyone here 3b AK as standard 200bb deep? IP/OOP/Squeeze?

Would a c/c // c/f line be incorrect?

It would seem like he either has you crushed with a flopped set/turned flush or he has a medium/high PP/Ax/pair+flush-draw and is calling you down for value right? I think here you are pretty committed, and he probably feels the same way.

My theory behind the c/c is that if you bet here, Ax folds unless they have AQ or aces up. However, if you check and let him take the lead he might decide his Ax is good and that you had a nice draw on the flop, but didn't hit, or that you were trying to improve and missed. Additionally, if he held onto KhJs, he might bluff/think-he's-good and you can catch him. Also, perhaps he just checks behind, and you win the pot regardless. Rather than bet/tankfold, or just shove and pray, I say check and decide what his line is after you see his bet (more info=more accurate read). Then you make the most informed decision, rather than one that pre-empts his move. Although, it could be argued that he will shove regardless of what he has in this situation if you check.

However, if you are dominated, you can just fold.

If my train of thought is wrong could someone explain why?

villains hand:KdKh?

Edit: I looked again at your raise on the flop. Seems kind of small. You price in pretty much every drawing hand, esp. KhQh. Wouldn't something like 25 be better? If not, why?

wha? I'd shove. I expect to be ahead most of time time and get called by AQ

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

wha? I'd shove. I expect to be ahead most of time time and get called by AQ

I think we can't be that sure he has AQ. I would think I'm beat something like 30-40% of the time here. If he folds any of the hands were ahead of here were valuetowning ourselves.

Edit: after reevaling I think were ahead 90% of the time but hes folding a ton of those hands. Great spot to bluff.

what would u do w/ AA?

Originally Posted by nutsinho

what would u do w/ AA?

I would Bet-Fold AA for the same amount, but I would value shove JJ

Originally Posted by Pioneer

I would Bet-Fold AA for the same amount, but I would value shove JJ

hah I can see it

you are fucking good

Originally Posted by Pioneer

I would Bet-Fold AA for the same amount, but I would value shove JJ

I got lost on this one. 'Splain please?

Originally Posted by GatorJH

I got lost on this one. 'Splain please?

It's 'combinatorics'...

Whether you hold JJ/AA villain will still have nearly the same amount of flushes in his range that you will be paying off. (Maybe 8-12 combos?)

But when you hold JJ villain will have 3X the amount of TP/ Suited 2PR combos available that can pay you off (AK/Q, AJ/9/6/3 suited)
Because there are 2 more aces in the deck he could hold.
(Up to 24 combos of AK/Q when you hold JJ vs. only up to 8 combos when you hold AA, 8 combos of suited 2pr when you hold JJ vs only 2-3 when you hold AA)

*You will obv. pay off a set of Aces when you have JJ and get paid by JJ when you have AA but as there are only 3 combos of any set so this doesn't make a big difference to the above.

Also he won't have all the combos of sets/AK/2pr in his range but whichever you interpret his range you will see JJ is getting paid off alot more, hope that helped.

Originally Posted by Pioneer

I would Bet-Fold AA for the same amount, but I would value shove JJ

I definitely like idea of value shoving JJ, but I don't get that sizing with aces

- if I would be villain I would probably shove JJ, 8h7h, etc. on turn
- but I would probably just call with A6, AJ, 66, etc. so against me 1/3 pot size bet is so small


- I'm playing 50NL, so I give people little bit different ranges than you - so can you please say your reasons for this sizing??
- and how would you play these hands as villain??

Originally Posted by Mr. Diamond

I definitely like idea of value shoving JJ, but I don't get that sizing with aces

If you add up the combos above you will see you most likely need villian to call with AQ (as well as 2 Pair, AK?, Sets?) to make a bet on the river +EV but if you shove villian will most likely fold AQ hence the smaller bet size.

*Having said that I don't mind shoving AA (in case he value raises worse?), I think I was just trying to demonstrate the point that JJ is alot stronger in this spot.

Originally Posted by Pioneer

If you add up the combos above you will see you most likely need villian to call with AQ (as well as 2 Pair, AK?, Sets?) to make a bet on the river +EV but if you shove villian will most likely fold AQ hence the smaller bet size.

*Having said that I don't mind shoving AA (in case he value raises worse?), I think I was just trying to demonstrate the point that JJ is alot stronger in this spot.

- thank you

- I thought about your post and when I want to write, that (as villain) I'm raising big FD like KJhh, QThh, KQhh, etc. on the flop and every other flushes on the turn, I saw post by Renton (LOL)
- so w/o flushes and for the reasons you said I would b/c something like 1/2 pot

I think its pretty hard for villain to have a flush considering most fd's are nutted enough to raise/stack the flop, and also would have shoved turn.

its a strong bluff spot and we have a hand one pip too weak to get value i think. at higher stakes its a balance/value jam, here id bet/fold small