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 Originally Posted by Fnord
Flop is all air. He either has a set or a small/medium pair. If he sucks at poker, you bet and he doesn't put up a fight when he misses. Insta-profit. If he's more aware, you're going to get some grief and can't just auto-bet there every time and need to balance out your bets with some checks and just let the Wookie win sometimes because he plays tight has position and the pot is small.
Definately agree, but like to add that I like a c-bet more often than not if it's with the intention of betting more turns than the ones we are hitting. If he is raising flop light your c/f frequency goes up ofcourse, but villains high AF certainly partly comes from him almost always having the initiative postflop, so it isn't a 100% indication he'll raise flop light.
Originally Posted by Fnord
Turn is a total blank and you fire again. If he's not playing without a set very often you just made a pretty big fuck up. If he's floating around, meh, maybe he puts you on TT+ now and gives it up. Again he calls. Alarm bells should be going off here. Curious line if he has a set, but all we have to work here is chow/chow/meow and not much actionable post-flop information.
Turn to me is the most interesting street because of the FD.
Betting isn't great because we have very little FE and really don't want to get raised.
Checking gives the pot controll to villain, which hurts us quite bad in this spot. To a large bet we likely have to fold, assuming villain doesn't have air here often. But there's also a chance it checks through, which is great...and we can c/c the smaller bets.
My conclusion is I probably c/c or c/f depending on betsizing, and I probably call up to 3/4PSB.
If villains range was a bit wider and I knew he floats some, I bet more and might consider a c/r the wider it gets.
I actually don't know what to think of hero's play with his betsizing. I think your range is so much overpairs here, that villain can raise you small with his good cards to expect a call...and you have to call with your FD, so he's valuetowning you.
On the other hand, villain might think you'll fold your overpairs to his raise, so he'll only call you...which is ofcourse great since you bought a cheap river card.
(note: against a wider range I think the small bet get's bluff raised too often, but against this villain it might be very good)
As played, river is a c/c or c/f depending on betsize for me, but definately mostly c/f.
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tough spot vs. reg
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