TPWK into river bluff - 2/5 150 bb's deep

[griffey24]

-villain BB in this hand is a reg who runs about 28/20 with a pretty low 3bet % of 3.8
-because of this low 3-bet, he raises TONS of flop cont bets with top pair type hands, and prob even shows up with like AK/AQ etc on A high boards and raises them
-we haven't had any relevant history this session and I don't think I've been caught in any big river bluff jams against him before
-Flop raise was to isolate on fish and maybe even get reg to fold AJ or something. I can't imagine what flush draws he'd ever call here other than maybe KJd's/KQd's and I'd expect this type of player to bomb more with that
-I checked turn in case my Td was good, and his river sizing of only 199 into like 350 made me think he didn't have the flush so I jammed
-would a better bluff be to bet turn/jam river?


$2/$5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($154.65)
CO ($1137.25)
Hero ($789.25)
SB ($641.40)
BB ($749.20)

Pre-flop: ($7, 5 players) Hero is BTN
UTG calls $5, 1 fold, Hero raises to $20, 1 fold, BB calls $15, UTG calls $15

Flop: ($62, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $20, Hero raises to $134.65, BB calls $134.65, UTG folds

Turn: ($351.30, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($351.30, 2 players)
BB bets $199, Hero raises to $634.60

[Irisheyes]

I agree that he doesn't have the flush here often but I think he has at least AJ (usually stronger) and I'd be surprised if he was able to make the fold with anything but the very bottom tip of his range.

[griffey24]

I agree that he doesn't have the flush here often but I think he has at least AJ (usually stronger) and I'd be surprised if he was able to make the fold with anything but the very bottom tip of his range.

Given that I'm raising shorty all-in on flop here, that should mean that I always have a hand with some value here (beit a strong made hand or a strong draw).

So should villain be calling here with non flushes if my range is either only a flush or turning a made hand into a bluff?

Maybe I'm expectin too much out of these ppl... to fold here..? Which is entirely possible.

[thizzSantaCruz]

It doesn't seem like he can have the flush here but I also don't think hes folding that much. Betting the turn and jamming river would make your line much more believable, how often do you check behind the flush when you hit it?

[griffey24]

It doesn't seem like he can have the flush here but I also don't think hes folding that much. Betting the turn and jamming river would make your line much more believable, how often do you check behind the flush when you hit it?

The reason why I checked was cause I actually didn't know if he could show up with some kind of flush on the turn or not, and I didn't wanna get jammed by some scared two pair/set and not be able to draw to my Td if it was good.

On the river, I feel as though his bet sizing gives me good information on his hand. I agree though that bet bet would probably be more believable though.

I might check back KJdd/KQdd myself on the turn sometimes though, but probably not lower flushes.

[Alexos]

nh

[pocketfours]

I would just give up after the flop. Don't check the turn with the nuts.

[Robin]

I think betting the turn would be pretty good. You rep lots of flushes and he doesn't rep many, so provided you're not bluffing with too many combos it would be bad for him to check-jam a lot of hands on the turn, no? i.e. the same reasoning that you give for thinking he shouldn't call on the river without a flush means he shouldn't check jam the turn without a flush. I don't think folding 10d is giving up that much equity anyway.

[griffey24]

nh

lol nice bump. Man what a dumb line.

[Alexos]

lol nice bump. Man what a dumb line.

lol some spammer bumped it, but yeah, 2008 was fun.

[pocketfours]

got me