TT on AAxAx board.

[Carroters]

Villian is 18/14 over 320 hands and has folded to 50% of c bets. Fwiw he 3-bets 6% preflop. On the flop I think i can get value from, his worse pps and look to c/f most turns if called. On this turn though I decide to c/c because obv there's now far less combos of AA and I'd expect him to 3-bet JJ-KK most of the time preflop. I get value from random floats/fds or maybe even a 9 or something he's value betting.

Now I look at it though I think I much prefer b/f the turn and c/f river since on this card he'll likely peel again with 9s or even 22-88.

As played, all he reps on the river is quads or possibly JJ, but I'm not sure what else/air can be in his range. It makes no sense to c/c turn and fold the river I suppose.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($10.25)
UTG ($56.80)
Hero (MP) ($57.40)
CO ($83.65)
Button ($37.70)
SB ($9.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 10, 10
1 fold, Hero bets $2, CO calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 9, A, A (2 players)
Hero bets $2.75, CO calls $2.75

Turn: ($10.25) A (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero calls $5

River: ($20.25) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $15, Hero?

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

id call the river bet. i think you're almost never going to get raised on the turn if you bet, and doing so keeps 9x putting money in the pot. definitely bet the turn

[Dragon Slayer]

Looks fine as played. I like betting turn for 7ish>C/C but I can see an argument for how you played it.

[Mr. Diamond]

definitely bet turn (if you check - he can take free card and catches a better fullhouse with his diamond overs + reasons above)

- in reality I would call this, but here I'm not sure about this river


What are the reasons for calling this river??

[dsaxton]

You believe he's calling the flop with pocket pairs, then claim you were planning on check-folding the turn, and then also rationalize your turn call by saying he could've been floating the flop. If he's floating this flop at all and calling with pocket pairs, why would you check-fold the turn?

This seems like an incredibly easy river call to me. I'd expect to be good the overwhelming majority of the time.

[Juked07]

Call. He has an 8 or 9 more often than he has you beat, plus he can have air.

I wonder if we can make a case for raising. I think a 9 calls 100% of the time and a lot of 8s do too.

[minSim]

Clear call on both turn and river how you played it.
Seems like the question is wether c/c c/c is better than bet bet.
I think it is as long as you think 9x is gonna bet twice.

[nutsinho]

he has the ace over 99% of the time

[Numbr2intheWorld]

he has the ace over 99% of the time

This is 50nl not 5000nl

[IowaSkinsFan]

Bet turn, check/fold river. Fold river as played.

[Sup3rM4N]

I like B/F turn around $7ish and C/F river if turn was called.

[gabe]

weird that he would play something you beat this way

[nutsinho]

exactly!

[Juked07]

I agree with betting turn, but how are you guys folding this river? It's 50 nl. Every villain thinks every boat is the nuts..

[Carroters]

This doesn't mean people will bet every boat or even most boats. People are stations and call down with retardedly weak hands, but thin value isn't something that applies to very many people at 50NL.

[Micro2Macro]

I agree with betting turn, but how are you guys folding this river? It's 50 nl. Every villain thinks every boat is the nuts..

it's 50nl, people don't value bet thinly and he has no air in his range.

[tstrout]

The right play here would've been to check raise the flop. Then you would know for sure if he has an ace. If you have an ace on that flop, check-raise is the only way to go. Or check raise the turn if he checks behind on the flop assuming no KQJ fall on the turn.

[Micro2Macro]

The right play here would've been to check raise the flop. Then you would know for sure if he has an ace. If you have an ace on that flop, check-raise is the only way to go. Or check raise the turn if he checks behind on the flop assuming no KQJ fall on the turn.

no