TT OOP vs nit

14/9 57% A%. 22 hands.

How would you flop? these playuers usually have tons of PPs in this spot with maybe some SC stuff or connected broadways. generally they are bad players who I find dont knwo how to play stuff in the middle of their range (jsut a general thought)

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($208.15)
CO ClaesMichael ($114.96)
BTN cellus ($264.35)
SB Bolton ($163.95)
BB gladefan ($197.95)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, cellus calls $8, 2 folds

Flop: ($19, 2 players)
Hero bets $14, cellus calls $14

Turn: ($47, 2 players)
Hero checks, cellus bets $30, $30 to Hero ($186.15)?

DOOOOOOOOOOD

c/f > c/c > b/f > c/r

I think betting the flop is the best move.

I'm kind of torn between checking and betting the turn. On one hand its completely counter intuitive to bloat the pot here with such a weak holding, but on the other hand i think its more likely to get a call from worse on the turn here with a bet then the river.

As played i probably call but it may be wrong, i def c/f river.

Your sample size is way too small to predict behavior - 22 hands is nothing. Therefore I'd take the most generic line possible - b/f flop, c/c turn, c/f river.

my thoughts were on his range;

No AA-QQ,
Not many Jx hands in his range at all besides JJ, AJ, maybe QJ & JT but these players probably fold them to a UTG open,
Some SC but not many
Small PPs I think make up the rest of his range.

I c/b flop since nowadays I think nits are all floating a street,
So his range when he calls is sets,pps, some Jx hands.

turn helps my hand since it cuts down on the odds of him having sets alng with the fact i dont think he has many Jx holdings. Plus im finding nits arent good at playing hands in the middle of their range like floated PPs etc since they dont seem to think getting to SD is best. So i c/c planning to usually c/f. hows my thinking?

(ofc based on 14/9 behaviour, tho a small sample i think these stats are probably well in line if he is actually a nit)

I employ one of the two Mcat theorems to make my decision

problem is they are counter-intuitive here.