Turn decision that left me a bit stumped

Hmm, I found this one a bit tricky. Villain seems fairly decent (24/15).

Its 200NL and I have 175, villain has me covered.

He raises UTG (5-handed) to $7, I call in SB with Qc9c.

Flop (board: 3c 5d 5c):

I check, he bets $16 and I call.

Turn (board: 3c 5d 5c Qd):

I check, and he makes a PSB of $48. Hmm, what now? And was there a better line to get me here?

Reload before the hand first off.

I'm usually mucking this hand to a raise OOP, but occasionally I'll make this kind of a call.

Flop is fine, sometimes c/r or lead but it's fine to c/c here I think. Turn is also a check call, he could be potting the turn with air putting you on like 44 or be betting a hand you do beat like TT/JJ. AQ/AA/KK are really the only hands we're really losing to at this point.

There are players who will only continue betting here with at least top pair. It's useful to know whether or not this guy is such a player, as you can't possibly be ahead in that case.

However, even against someone like this, he usually won't have a hand strong enough to call an all-in raise, since you would be representing a monster that beats almost all of his better hands. Even if you get called, you usually have 11 outs. I'd probably gamble here and try to win the pot or get lucky.

I like a min-raise here.

Hmm, can you explain your reasoning here Fnord? Given that we have top pair now, aren't we in danger of folding out hands we beat or being raised off our draw?

If we raise this turn, we're pot struck. So the question is what line is going to give our opponent the biggest chance to make a mistake.

i lead the turn, or i lead the flop, but if im checking the turn i would just call here for pot control then plan on betting any river. the bet size depends on the card that falls though.

Originally Posted by gabe

if im checking the turn i would just call here for pot control then plan on betting any river. the bet size depends on the card that falls though.

The only bet that makes sense at that point is all-in.

oops

preflop call is pretty loose. b/3b flop is fun, c/r is ok too.

As played, call turn and shove any river. Best way to get value out of medium pairs imo.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

preflop call is pretty loose.

I know, but its so much more fun that way.

As played, call turn and shove any river. Best way to get value out of medium pairs imo.

Hmm, I'm not sure I follw the logic here. If you're going to shove any river OOP, why not just CR-allin on the turn?

I'm interested in more of Fnord's minraise Idea. If the board wasn't paired our hand would look so much better.

Originally Posted by Fnord

If we raise this turn, we're pot struck. So the question is what line is going to give our opponent the biggest chance to make a mistake.

Hmm, I think I like it. In the actual hand I CR-allin, and immediately regretted it, figuring I was in a WA-WB situation. The only other option I was considering was check-call, check-fold to a big river bet w/o improvement, but that seemed too weak, given my hand was somewhat disguised at this point.

I never considered a min-raise. When I first switched from limit I had to stomp out my tendency to min-raise too much, so I perhaps don't think about it as much as I should do now.

Originally Posted by jo

given my hand was somewhat disguised at this point.

If you call that turn, your hand is very much NOT disguised.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Originally Posted by jo

given my hand was somewhat disguised at this point.

If you call that turn, your hand is very much NOT disguised.

Really? You don't think mid-pairs would put you on just a flush draw?

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

I'm interested in more of Fnord's minraise Idea.

It screams confidence in our hand. It says I'm going to grill you for a double-up because I don't think the river will hurt me. It might set-up an awkward river spot, however shoving would have put that money in anyway so any line that doesn't involve folding can't be worse.

I think he out-thinks himself with AA/KK/AQ more often to a min-raise than a shove.

Unless you think a shove has more fold equity.

Or you think he's FoS and either call down unimproved or try some sort of river blocker to get a hand worse than Qx to look us up.

Originally Posted by jo

Really? You don't think mid-pairs would put you on just a flush draw?

It's exactly what they'll put you on, meaning you tend to win nothing more when your flush hits. JJ doesn't call a CR allin here enough (if ever) on the turn to garner a push and thats why I like Fnord's minraise the best. If that river bricks I just don't know what to do, as I can see losing a big pot here fairly often.