Turn a set, but flush comes.... What to do on river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($198.30)
SB ($40)
BB ($192.95)
UTG ($217.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9.
UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $10, 2 folds, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($23) 7, K, 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $16, UTG calls $16.

Turn: ($55) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $30, Hero calls $30.

River: ($115) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $84, Hero ?


UTG either has a lower set or flush IMO. Turn play to me is just call and hope the board pairs...but what to do on river? Do you think he'd bet this hard without a flush, given my action PF? 33 and 77 seem very possible for him. My line doesn't look like a flush either.

Anyone fold?

impossible fold, even if he shoved im still calling

Originally Posted by gabe

impossible fold, even if he shoved im still calling

I wrote out a big reply, but it basically just said this.

Call

also, what do you put him on?

and anyone shove? UTG only has $60 left.

Originally Posted by mixchange

and anyone shove? UTG only has $60 left.

Nah, only the flush would probably call.

closer to a shove than a fold

Any information on the villain? Looks like an easy call, I dont think I usually shove though.

I was hoping ppl would put him on a range, because I had a hard time. I called, losing to a flush. I'm surprised nobody thought it was a close call, but I guess that's because we are 4 handed?

to me his range was: AA/KK some idiots play them this way), weak suited broadwayish cards (k10s, qjs, kqs, kjs) and PP's.

Originally Posted by mixchange

I was hoping ppl would put him on a range, because I had a hard time. I called, losing to a flush. I'm surprised nobody thought it was a close call, but I guess that's because we are 4 handed?

to me his range was: AA/KK some idiots play them this way), weak suited broadwayish cards (k10s, qjs, kqs, kjs) and PP's.

A little tough concidering we don't even have any info at all on villain. Basically he limp called pre, that is basically anything but TT+, AQs+, AKo+, and maybe some of those.

i like to jam the turn cuz even though his bet reps a flush, it also reps (as said earlier a set) but also a hand w/1 big club that just picked up a FD and wants to see a river card for less than a pot sized bet. calling to hope the board pairs i think is kinda bad reverse implied odds since you no longer get value from anything you're beating if the river brings a 4th club, and occasionally when the board does pair you won't get paid off .. .thats probly not that true a high percentage of the time, but maybe 5-10% ... its not a lot but just another point to consider.

anyone trying to argue that u have to call the river cuz u called the turn and a club didnt come off is making a big mistake. that line is asking to lose the most and win the least.

u do also realize that by jamming the turn even if he does have a flush or whatever u have quite a bit of equity to draw to a boat.

plus if he folds, its sick good meta game

Originally Posted by nutsinho

closer to a shove than a fold

I would probably shove the river, possibly the turn. Problem is villain is often bluffing and will just fold the turn.

Originally Posted by Marshall28

i like to jam the turn cuz even though his bet reps a flush, it also reps (as said earlier a set) but also a hand w/1 big club that just picked up a FD and wants to see a river card for less than a pot sized bet. calling to hope the board pairs i think is kinda bad reverse implied odds since you no longer get value from anything you're beating if the river brings a 4th club, and occasionally when the board does pair you won't get paid off .. .thats probly not that true a high percentage of the time, but maybe 5-10% ... its not a lot but just another point to consider.

anyone trying to argue that u have to call the river cuz u called the turn and a club didnt come off is making a big mistake. that line is asking to lose the most and win the least.

u do also realize that by jamming the turn even if he does have a flush or whatever u have quite a bit of equity to draw to a boat.

Problem with jamming the turn is that many people will think you've made the flush. Basically unless *they* have a flush, they aren't following the turn jam at this stake. We talked about this on AIM, how passive everyone at this stake usually gets when a possible flush hits (except backdoor). If I jam turn I feel like I *lose* value. Yes, a 4th club hits but I think I lose a lot but jamming turn the TPTK type hands bail. most ppl at this stake need 2p+ to be betting this strong.

I like how you played it. As you said, people at these stakes are scared of monsters under the bed (I am always surprised when I see that) and won't call you without a flush if you raise turn. As played, it is not even a close call. It is an easy call, because TP is in his range. Marshall has a very crazy image, so he can get value out of worse hands if he raises turn, but most people can't.

How often do people get or bet 3 streets and 3/4 of a stack of value?

3 streets ... all day.. ..and if they only call a turn jam w/ just a flush i hoenstly think its an image issue on your end. the more i play these low stakes the more i realize i can metagame them to death. they just dont know how to handle it. i guess thats why i have such trouble against very very good tag players ... they dont let me metagame them and stick to their solid game, while the weaker the player the easier it is for me to manipulate them.

but w/ the dead money already in the pot + your redraw equity i seriously think mathematically it might even be the right play. (im not a big math guy but it seems like it could be close to me) and even if it is close exactly when he has a flush and u have a set, u have to start implementing other possibilities into his range which make it an obv shove.

and this is 200nl ... what i was talking to u about was like 25/50nl ... at 200 u should be getting 3 streets consistently.

on a side note ... ive had people jam on me for over 150bb w/ 99, and Q2 in the last 2 days. +many 4bets and fold to 5bet shoves. AT 50NL.