Turned combo draw

villain is 36/18/1.8/105, how else could I have played flop and turn?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer Game#20087508802

SB ($10.10)
BB ($13.30)
Hero ($26.45)
BTN ($69.55)

Dealt to Hero 97

Hero raises to $1, call, fold, call,

FLOP ($3.10) 5J8

check, Hero bets $1.95, BTN raises to $4, BB folds, Hero calls $2.05,

TURN ($11.10) 5J83

check, BTN bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75,

RIVER ($22.60) 5J83Q

check, BTN bets $15.75, Hero folds,

BTN wins $21.50

My possibly wrong take: fine/standard. I don't mind opening up a little bit on the turn against someone who's capable of folding, but I don't know if this is that guy, and his bet sizing whispers "I'd prefer you hang around in this pot with me." Against a TAgg type taking a similar line (but with stronger bets) you could checkraise/shove the turn - or still play it basically like this. (edit for clarity: what I mean by that last remark is that against someone capable of taking this line with just top pair or as a bluff, there's nothing wrong with playing back at them on the turn since you have a lot of outs & a lot of equity; but against this guy I think it's better just to follow the pot odds and implied odds to their natural conclusion.)

Umm fold flop?

If you have a reason to believe his min raise is weak than you should probably wait until you have better than 9 high to play back.

Originally Posted by meeloche

Umm fold flop?

If you have a reason to believe his min raise is weak than you should probably wait until you have better than 9 high to play back.

Hero is getting 4.5:1 on that call with 4 outs to the nuts and 4 more to the probable nuts (b/c no way villain has Q9). So why, again, is hero going to fold..?

As far as the second statement, that's why they call it a semi-BLUFF.

yeah dalecooper pretty much said it. I have a double belly to the nuts/near nuts. Folding flop is definitely -ev with the direct and implied odds i'm getting, but I wanted to know if I missed some fold equity here or if I should've folded the turn for example.

Originally Posted by KillsAids

if I should've folded the turn for example.

I don't see how you could. With the flush draw you picked up you can't fold to a 1/2 pot bet.

Looks good. Sometimes you'll see fish that will take this line w/ random crap cause they think you dont have anything, so if you'd seen him do this a lot you could c/r turn, but as a general rule once they min-rr people are never looking to fold.

haha I read that wrong thought you only had a gutter. Yeah your equity is good enough for a float on the flop and you can't fold the turn for half pot.

Carry on...

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Originally Posted by KillsAids

if I should've folded the turn for example.

I don't see how you could. With the flush draw you picked up you can't fold to a 1/2 pot bet.

Agree 100% he's getting a bit less than 3:1 on the turn call, that's not even counting implied odds on the remaining effectives. This looks very reasonable. Only thing I do differently, maybe, is open jam the river. I think this is some kind of AJ type hand or J8 a lot. A weaker hand that won't be able to call if you shove the river. How would you like to have a set of 5's in his shoes on that board, with the line you took and then jamming the Q on the river.

I think open jamming river here = profit.

River shove would be 17 into 22 that's got to be enough to get us some fold equity.

River shove is terrible vs a thinking player because your hand looks like exactly what it is. Its bad against this guy be cause he doesnt care and he likes his hand

Originally Posted by overflow

I think open jamming river here = profit.

River shove would be 17 into 22 that's got to be enough to get us some fold equity.

Guy check/minraises is not folding 90% of the time or more... We do have some fold equity but certainly not enough to make it a winning play imo.

Originally Posted by reprisal

River shove is terrible vs a thinking player because your hand looks like exactly what it is. Its bad against this guy be cause he doesnt care and he likes his hand

I would think a shove makes our hand look more like T9 or JJ than a missed double gutshot and backdoor flush draw.

A shove in this spot just looks way more like a made hand that was slow played than it looks like a missed draw, literally 97 and 76 are the only draws he could possibly have had. He might put him on like AdKd, but there are still way more made hands in his range that shove this river given the line villain took.

Not to mention a shove in this spot looks strong as hell, given villain's line. I think the only way a shove is bad here is if you have a good reason to believe he, for whatever reason, would think that you wouldn't take this line with enough of the hands you're repping to fold the bottom 15-20% of his range.

Originally Posted by overflow

River shove would be 17 into 22 that's got to be enough to get us some fold equity.

You need more than some because you have no regular equity at all. I don't like shoving here, and FWIW, when someone takes that line against me I snap it off with any reasonable hand - it's a bluff so much of the time.

I also agree with those who said min-raisers aren't usually looking to fold. They might be really strong and the min-raise is their natural reaction, or they might just be a fish with top pair - either way, good luck forcing them out.

completely standard?

If were slow playing our hand why would we suddenly spaz out & jam the river? If we just made our hand w/ T9 or QQ why would we jam? Since villian is going to bet this river a ton of the time, we would obviously check then shovel the rest in. The only real reason we would shove is to try and get villian to fold an AJ type hand or his air that has more SD value or if we want to rep a bluff for some reason. This guy probably isnt thinking about that, but if he is doing this w/ AJ then he is probably doing it w/ QJ & lots of better stuff and he'll probably call you w/ basically all of it.

Originally Posted by meeloche

Umm fold flop?

If you have a reason to believe his min raise is weak than you should probably wait until you have better than 9 high to play back.

Level? Please tell me this is a huge level.

Please read the whole thread before replying .

I spew harder than a 17yr old virgin on prom night on the turn

a virgin to alcohol?

Originally Posted by reprisal

If were slow playing our hand why would we suddenly spaz out & jam the river? If we just made our hand w/ T9 or QQ why would we jam? Since villian is going to bet this river a ton of the time, we would obviously check then shovel the rest in. The only real reason we would shove is to try and get villian to fold an AJ type hand or his air that has more SD value or if we want to rep a bluff for some reason. This guy probably isnt thinking about that, but if he is doing this w/ AJ then he is probably doing it w/ QJ & lots of better stuff and he'll probably call you w/ basically all of it.

It's the infamous, it looks so bluffy it must be a valuebet line. I don't see how anyone makes it to show down with one pair if you shove, everything got there. This might not be true of random 25NL opponents though. This is where snapcall reads come in handy. If you've seen villain call down huge river bets with one pair almost instantly, then yeah I'd say this is a horrible spot to bluff. If he takes even 5 seconds to think about it, when he asks himself what he can beat, the majority of the time 97 and 76 are the only hands he'll come up with. Outweighed, at minimum 3:1 by hands that have a good chunk of his range in pretty bad shape. It's also weighted towards stronger hands because we're getting pretty shitty odds on the turn if we have a one way draw.

Besides, shipping it also makes it look like you know he's going to call, which makes your hand look even stronger.

Originally Posted by Triptanes

a virgin to alcohol?

I believe he's referring to secretion-based spew, rather than excretion-based spew. I hope that clarifies things.