Turned top set facing a weird line - 100nl

UTG+1 is quite nitty pre, postflop she´s either running good or hates giving up. She slows down on overcards on turn and didn´t c/r so far. Button is some random.
I´ve been active, but not hitting anything, shipping a million of small pots to the fish and giving up all the time.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($125.05)
UTG+1 ($116.25)
Hero (CO) ($100.00)
BTN ($136.50)
SB ($100.00)
BB ($207.85)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($12, 3 players)
UTG+1 bets $8, Hero calls $8, BTN calls $8

Turn: ($36, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $18, BTN folds, UTG+1 calls $18

River: ($72, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $86.75

you have a set of kings. call.

looks like a fold really given reads

What's UTG+1's fold to 3bet? IF utg+1 is nitty, then their range is stronger so its more likely they have a hand they will get in with pre. If they don't fold to that many 3bets, definitely 3bet pre.

As played, the nit is betting into two ppl on a dry board, whatt.... .raiiiiiise the flop.

When the PFR checks this turn after betting the 8 high flop, I think they always have some hand like 99-QQ and are pot controlling, so bet this turn way harder to look more bluffy. 25ish is good.

Snap river call. What spades do you think villain gets there with that doesn't bet this turn card?

In what position is the squeeze maniac?

There´s no squeeze maniac. Raiser is rather nitty, folds to most 3bets. His 3bet is like 3ish, so Im pretty sure this person won´t get it in with less than QQ, prob not even with that when his EP open gets 3bet. Other players are fish or fit-or-fold nits who don´t cause much trouble postflop.

As for the turn, I don´t bluff much here at all with BTN overcalling the flop. Furthermore btn has 88/22/33 a lot imo, so I wasn´t really concerned with UTG+1 at this point.

The thing is as griff said, there aren´t any spades in his range except the random sc´s he might open, but for those this turn is like a major double opportunity. I was thinking it´s either a stubborn AK (no particular read, but it seems people love to check when the turn pairs their overs) or AA pot controlling turn?

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

looks like a fold really given reads

surely you jest

Once button calls behind I agree it changes the turn, but if you're playing preflop like you did, then this flop needs to be a raise. It's not like he's gonna just drop TT-QQ so easily, I wouldn't imagine.

Edit - also, if you think btn's range has so many strong hands, why would you ever bet only 18?

Bet you he lost the hand here!! I see nits do stupid shit like this with flushes since they are tards.

this aint a snap imo

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

Bet you he lost the hand here!! I see nits do stupid shit like this with flushes since they are tards.

this aint a snap imo

You're crazy! A nit might play 888/333/222 like this because he feels his turn lead into two ppl will look too strong, but he doesn't want to check the river and risk you checking back the scare card.

You might even see some weird A4/A5 type hand sometimes.

If hero had sized earlier streets a bit better, then this river would be a smaller shove into a bigger pot, and a mega snap. I'll downgrade this spot to a quasi snap.

Obviously hero lost.... it issss posted afterall :P

Just looking at this hand screams AAA. I mean yeah obviously in terms of ranges, lower sets he can have and bluffs it's a call, but it's so suspect of a badly played AA or maybe gimpy flush?

still two combos of AK left in the deck
9 combos of 88/33/22

three combos of QsJs,JsTs,Ts9s
three combos of AA
and I seriously can't put him on anything else that beats you

Originally Posted by griffey24

I'll downgrade this spot to a quasi snap.

slowly but surely you come to my side

I think you're beat here a lot more than some people seem to think but a call is still profitable.

Also, put me in the camp that doesn't like the flop flat, and doesn't like the turn bet sizing as played.

raise flop imo

if you flat flop, on this turn you gotta bet more - if people are trying to fold to a turn bet they'll fold to $18 just as likely as $25 id say.

when you bet slightly more on this turn it's much easier to get all the $ in on the river as it's less than a PSB for you.

Honestly, the fact that the As and the Ks are out and we are facing a nitty opener? Seems like we should call. Just not a lot of flushes possible.