Quote Originally Posted by Massimo
Call, he only needs to have AK or weird stuff about 28% of the time.
Spenda, its a 3 way sort-of 3bet pot so even if i check flop and bet turn pushing river is still pot sized or there abouts so i dont need to bet the flop to get the money in by the river, although if this were a simple raised pot i would have to bet flop to get it in
Also, if opp raises any flop bet i can push and be happy im not making a significant error of any type (this is perhaps the mistake in the hand, but i know results which could make that idea biased)
But my real concern is that his range is polarised toward big hands, eg TT+ AK+ which i feel means my hand is well hidden and i have a huge chance of a big payoff when opp is too committed to the pot with AK on a flushy river or JJJ.
Also, i need to be able to float this flop with both AAA and nothing so opp knows im capable of taking these sorts of flops away from him in position. My original thought was that i could float and steal (ie he has KK/QQ) and also that i didnt need to bet to play for stacks by the river
What is really scary is that opp doesnt bet the flop but c/c's the turn and by the river only two of his most likely hands have not boated up and one cannot call a river bet (QQ) AK can call river and calls a push IMO.
But, AA/KK/JJ (and i think JJ +AK are his most likely holdings considering the bad preflop) are now all boated up.
If i pokerstove a range of AA/KK/JJ/AK which would all bet river like this IMO i have 50% equity against that range making it an easy call.

I wouldnt polarise his range so much if he was a total fish, but hes just a bad wannabe TAGG who is probably playing 200nl after some MTT win after playing 25nl for ages.