It sounds like a lot of your reads are based on the fact that he's a thinking reg, but you didn't really mention it in your post. I find I get burned a lot when I want to make sense of why he would ever raise top pair here but then I get shown KJs and he was just raising because he had top pair and didn't know what else to do.

Basically what I'm saying is I don't think very many regs make logical plays in non-standard spots that haven't been analyzed to death. So I don't think you should attempt a soul read here based on "it wouldn't make sense for him to do this here" because you're assuming he thinks about a hand as much as you do.