What to do: low PP & OESD vs possible overpair

One of villain's first hands at the table...I put him on an overpair, what do we do on turn?

Game #2699406553: Hold'em NL ($0.25/$0.50) - 2006/12/06 - 04:21:29 (DST)
Table "Lundu" Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: Per0303 ($10 in chips)
Seat 2: bosse124 ($61.80 in chips)
Seat 3: lambsie ($76.20 in chips)
Seat 4: saltjoe ($37.65 in chips)
Seat 5: HERO ($212.55 in chips)
Seat 6: VILLAIN ($40.75 in chips)
lambsie: posts small blind $0.25
saltjoe: posts big blind $0.50
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to HERO [3d 3s]
HERO: raises to $2
VILLAIN: raises to $6
Per0303: folds
bosse124: folds
lambsie: folds
saltjoe: folds
HERO: calls $4
----- FLOP ----- [4h 6h 5d]
HERO: checks
VILLAIN: bets $8.50
HERO: ??

meh, you probably cant get him to fold an overpair in a reraised pot here and you are out of position which makes your draw not so hot, i could go with a painful fold here.

going all in is a good play though if you think he has high cards even like 10% of the time because you are like 40% to win and theres a lot of dead money in teh pot at this point.

also, fold preflop and its not even debatable

Originally Posted by nutsinho

also, fold preflop and its not even debatable

unfortunately... this is correct

as played I think you would be making a mistake by folding

Someone sitting with less than 100bb at nl50 will almost NEVER fold AA-KK-QQ on this board. Your implied odds here make the play very marginal. Rather than semi-bluff pushing, calling here allows you to pay 8.50$ for 45$ (a little over 5-1 on your money when you're gonna hit better than 1/5 times).

I call and check-fold turn if i miss

I probably peel one off. Folding is ok too, but you didn't really have odds to call PF in the first place.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

Originally Posted by nutsinho

also, fold preflop and its not even debatable

unfortunately... this is correct

as played I think you would be making a mistake by folding

Someone sitting with less than 100bb at nl50 will almost NEVER fold AA-KK-QQ on this board. Your implied odds here make the play very marginal. Rather than semi-bluff pushing, calling here allows you to pay 8.50$ for 45$ (a little over 5-1 on your money when you're gonna hit better than 1/5 times).

I call and check-fold turn if i miss

Isnt that basically why we should call preflop as well? Because the implied odds against these players are so huge why is it a fold pf?

Edit: Is it only a fold preflop if we're sure he has an overpair? What if we throw in a couple of high cards as well, AQs, AK (they usually slow down on turn if they dont hit these)...

you need implied odds to call and set hunt, you are only getting 10:1. That's enough to show a profit if you stack him every time, but that won't happen.

This is why limp/calling from EP with small pockets often makes more sense than raising, because you still have implied odds to call a 4xbb raise.

I think you are losing value if you open limp small pockets.

I disagree, but it's an age old argument.

Regarding OP's question about calling with 10-1 odds :

I used to go by the 10-1 rule. Problem is, many times 10-1 just doesn't cut it since

-flop is too scary even when you flop your set (i.e. Q-Q-J)
-overcards hit (i.e. you have 77 on board of 7-10-A vs villain's KK)
-set over set happens... and since when it does it usually means you lose 100BB's you have to take this into consideration and give yourself significantly better preflop implied odds to compensate for this. When I was starting to play nl 100 I lost set over set 5 out of 7 times I flopped a set. Obv this is the exception but you see my point...

So even when you hit your 1 in 8 ish set, you have to take in to account these other factors that hurt your action when you do. So your implied odds are always that big. 10-1 is the absolute limit imo. When I'm getting 12-1 implied odds or better vs someone who's range is almost exclusively overpairs then it's an auto-call and usually a lead into raiser situation... 10-1 is cutting it really thin.

good post, genitruc
that pretty much sums up everything i didnt feel like typing out

Originally Posted by Warpe

I disagree, but it's an age old argument.

a agree with this, but you have to balance it well in ep with say limped AQ and QTs Axs type hands if you want to get away with it without being predictable.
Works better against more aware opponents.

Unless you can see the other guy's hole cards, you're never getting 7 to 1. Best case is 9 to 1 once you consider his chances to out-flop you or suck-out.

Hence, I tend to go with the 5% rule calling a first bet and I'll make loose calls for up to 10% if there is already money in the pot.

The other consideration here, is how often can you pick-up the pot without hitting a set. I think calling to hit a set in NL100 or higher is giving up too much value. At least 5-10% of the time, you should be playing a little post-flop poker.

BTW: I'm all-in here. You're in good shape against his range.

Thanks for the replies guys. Genitruc I see your point here but you only talk about hitting a set to win the pot. I like Fnord's answer here, because more often than not I feel I'm also able to push KK-QQ-JJ.. out of an ace high flop, and sometimes he has AQ-AK as well and I take it down on the turn because they dont fire two barrels with air much (something that will change at 100nl++) but still...

Anyhow I see why its not an instacall preflop now, and always calling here can be spewing.

Originally Posted by Alexos

Thanks for the replies guys. Genitruc I see your point here but you only talk about hitting a set to win the pot. I like Fnord's answer here, because more often than not I feel I'm also able to push KK-QQ-JJ.. out of an ace high flop, and sometimes he has AQ-AK as well and I take it down on the turn because they dont fire two barrels with air much (something that will change at 100nl++) but still...

Anyhow I see why its not an instacall preflop now, and always calling here can be spewing.

truedat

sometimes I'll call a reraise preflop and call down 3 barrells on like a 9 high flop with a low pp. It's all about ppl preflop range and aggressiveness postflop. In this case it seemed unlikely for the orignal raiser to have random high cards... (maybe I invented that part?)

[quote=Genitruc][quote= In this case it seemed unlikely for the orignal raiser to have random high cards... (maybe I invented that part?)[/quote]

The problem itself was what do I do on flop with the small PP and OESD assuming he has a higher PP...

The discussion turned into how to play small PP preflop, so you're partly inventing:P. Thanks though.