What do you make of this?

TEXAS_HOLDEM, NO_LIMIT, P4-49812500-1196
played at "Wolgograd" for USD RM from 2007-09-14 13:07 until 2007-09-14 13:08

Seat 1: robertof7 ($22.75 in chips)
Seat 3: jockelito ($140.75 in chips)
Seat 4: IWillEatYou. ($68.15 in chips)
Seat 8: Galapogos [ 8,8 ] ($113 in chips)
Seat 10: kks1860 ($47.25 in chips)

Antes/Blinds
robertof7 posts blind ($0.50), jockelito posts blind ($1).

Pre-Flop
IWillEatYou. folds, Galapogos bets $4, kks1860 folds, robertof7 folds, jockelito calls $3.

Flop [board cards: 5,3,4 ]
jockelito checks, Galapogos bets $6, jockelito calls $6.

Turn [board cards: 5,3,4,T ]
jockelito bets $15, Galapogos


Villain is 31/15/4 over a good sample. Notes say the usual donkish stuff like overvalues top pair, floats flop OOP with overs. One note that stands out is he's capable of making big bluffs. Not saying necessarily he does it all the time. But when he does, he follows through. His line is dumb though, is my hand strong enough to put him to the test if he's likely firing again on the river? He has behaved so far this session.

Interesting.. I normally play like this with a hand like 88 or 56.. I'd flat-call with the intention of calling up to 2/3 pot on any non A,2,5,6,7 river.

raise, i know this donk.

Every note you have says you're ahead. Raise.

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

Every note you have says you're ahead. Raise.

But if our notes says he bluffs and follows through, aren't we better off calling with the intention of calling anything on the river? Raising looks like it'll probably knock the wind out of his bluffing sails, throwing our equity down the pan.

Yeah like the others said, I think you're ahead here - especially regarding those notes on him. Probably a pretty weak hand trying to steal the pot.

Originally Posted by Ash256

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

Every note you have says you're ahead. Raise.

But if our notes says he bluffs and follows through, aren't we better off calling with the intention of calling anything on the river? Raising looks like it'll probably knock the wind out of his bluffing sails, throwing our equity down the pan.

The thing is, expecting to be ahead here most of the time doesn't mean that we want to see the river card. Even if he's bluffing, there are a large number of river cards that could come to give him the best hand. So I tend to prefer to raise before a river danger card can come.

By not raising, we're intentionally making a mistake - failing to protect our equity in the pot. The hope is that our equity is enough to take it down regardless of the river card, and that our opponent will make a bigger mistake and bet the river with a hand that we beat (on a bluff or otherwise). Occasionally we also save money if our opponent has Tx or a set. So it's a balancing act between our equity and our potential winnings. Given the number of cards that improve bluffing hands here (A,2,6,7 gives many a straight; 9+ gives many others a better pair), there's somewhere between a 12% and 25% chance that his bluff will beat us in the end.

I think in the end, it's close enough between just calling to pick up the extra bet and raising to protect our hand that the decision doesn't matter a ton either way.