What do you think? Float/draw/river bluff situation

UTG has seemed solid and aware, but also raises at least a somewhat wide range (J9o in late position) and comes off as slightly LAggy. My own table image was most likely similar to that. I hadn't shown down any crazy bluffs but I'd been raising a wider range on a pretty regular basis, and winning a lot of pots without showdown. I had not called many raises from others and this was my first float (semi-float, since I had a draw - can we officially start using that phrase, like "semibluff"?) against anyone.

Timing tells: villain was quick to raise and c-bet, pretty slow to call the turn and check the river.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($27.40)
SB ($52.15)
BB ($28.45)
UTG ($24.75)
MP ($24.70)
CO ($19.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q.
UTG raises to $1.1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.10, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.55) K, 3, J (2 players)
UTG bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25.

Turn: ($7.05) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4.

River: ($15.05) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $8...

Against an opponent as described I always 3-bet this on the button. As played I would have just checked through turn and river.

agree with everything silu said. if your going to bet the river you need to bet more imo.

Originally Posted by silu73

Against an opponent as described I always 3-bet this on the button. As played I would have just checked through turn and river.

I understand the 3-bet criticism - I am apt to do that with slightly better hands (AQs would qualify) or when out of position. In position I mix calls and 3-bets in this situation.

I don't get the check-through idea though. Are you hoping ace high holds up? If not, why even call the flop? I'm not getting odds to draw (although I may still be good there) - my conception of the hand was that the draw was in my back pocket, but floating with intent to steal was the main objective. I feel like he had me beat too - maybe nines or tens, something like that. (He did fold to the river bet after much thought.)

Now, as played through the turn - what do you think is the optimal river bet? I don't like to go pot sized or larger because I think it smells too much like a bluff to the kind of players that are always trying to make hero calls. I also like to maximize my profits on a bluff, so if I can get away with a cheaper move I will. $8 was my low end here, but I would usually never go much higher than $10 - it just looks desperate to me. What is your standard bet there?

I think you should bluff the same amount you have been value betting.

Originally Posted by BigLRIP

I think you should bluff the same amount you have been value betting.

That's part of the thing for me - I am not a pot bettor for the most part. I usually go 2/3 - 3/4 pot and sometimes as low as half pot on later streets if the pot is expanding and/or my value is thin. I do bet the full pot at times but it's not my standard M.O.

If you insist on firing turn you should at least fire it properly.. I probs give up though

Doesn't seem like a good flop to float vs an utg raise.

Originally Posted by noble007

Doesn't seem like a good flop to float vs an utg raise.

I picked it for a few reasons - 1) villain was capable of raising a lot of hands UTG or otherwise, including (I felt) suited connectors and small to medium pairs; in any case as long as he isn't on AA, KK, AK, KJ, or JJ, that flop stands a good chance to make him uncomfortable. 2) It gave me a 4-out draw in my hip pocket that could potentially turn a ruined float into a glorious de-stacking. 3) It looks like exactly the kind of board that most people DON'T float on. Everybody floats 269 rainbow because it's easy to scare away missed overcards on the turn. When you call a bet on KJx, it could mean a lot of hands - KQ, KJ, AJ, and QT are probably the most common. That's a scary call to a lot of his range.

Also, this is just speculation, but villain's raise sizing pre-flop was weird. That's not a pot raise or a standard BB increment. It looks a little like scared money. It was the largest opening raise he had made without limpers.

I fold to cbet here

I don't like this float on this board for a couple of reasons:
This board hits his range a lot harder than it does yours and against good players (i realize this is 25nl but as general advice) you are going to get 2 barreled a lot here and aren't likely to take this pot away from him on the turn. He is going to have nut hands here a decent amount and if it were me I'd be c/r you a lot on most turns if I thought you were capable of floating to bet the turn when I checked.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Originally Posted by noble007

Doesn't seem like a good flop to float vs an utg raise.

I picked it for a few reasons - 1) villain was capable of raising a lot of hands UTG or otherwise

He raised from UTG AND NOT otherwise.

Raising J9o on the button is something I do very regularly, but my UTG range is 22-AA AJs+


Earlier response was wrong, I assumed you were PFR.

Originally Posted by Ash256

He raised from UTG AND NOT otherwise.

Raising J9o on the button is something I do very regularly, but my UTG range is 22-AA AJs+

Understood - I felt his was wider than that. His J9o raise was from the cutoff, not the button. He had also raised KTs from UTG on a previous hand. But even if his range is just barely wider than yours, the majority of it doesn't hit that flop hard at all. In fact the majority of it thinks that flop is really troubling. Only 4 out of 13 pairs like that flop, 5 if you go with queens, which would probably look me up a lot. Out of big card hands, AK/KQ/KJ are happy to varying degrees; AQ/AJ/QJ/AT/KT not so much, also to varying degrees. Obviously any suited connectors up to JT missed badly, if he's capable of raising those hands.

Bear in mind also, there's no way I'm floating this same hand every time, or even half the time (using it infrequently increases its power); and also, if he double-barrels the turn with a serious bet I'm just folding. I'm not advocating full on LAggness. Frankly, that's not my game.