I am not a high-stakes player but I have railed villain for prob at least 300 hours (the sound of him reriasing ai used to put me to sleep... yes I am a bit of a freak...). as far as I know he is one of the winningest players online (Ivey stopped playing him HU complaining that it would take too long to take his money on FTP).

I can add prob 3 relevant pieces of info on villain. Not sure this can help your decision making for a hand that is finished but...

1) He rarely plays strong hands passively.
2) He likes pushing the nuts
3) He plays draws very aggressively (no surprise there)

this being said, he hates shorties. No point for him to play a draw aggressively and he's not getting great implied odds and knows you probably won't fold anything decent.

I think your read is good and he is on a medium king or 1010-QQ more than 80% of time here. He will fold a shitload if you push turn. He might call if he picked up pair plus flushdraw but... Most value is checking turn pushing river since it looks so weird.