Yay turned set...river sucks

(sorry no converter for this hand)

Villain unknown. Table is quite fishy.

I always raise here pre-flop, so no need to mention that.

100bb's effective stacks.

JL is UTG and dealt 55

JL calls, UTG+1 raises to 4bb, 3 folds, BB calls, JL calls.

Flop: J T 6 (3-way flop, 13BB)

Checks around.

Turn 5

BB checks, JL bets 12.5, UTG+1 calls, BB folds.

River 9 (38BB)

JL bets 25BB, UTG+1 pushes, JL???? (58BB more to call)

This seems standard to me, but what do you guys think??

gotta call

Is UTG+1 loose enough to be popping J9/T9 here?

So were getting 2.5 to 1? I think this is a bit of a decision. With only bottom set here I can see a fold needing 30% equity. His preflop raise doesn't look like 9T/9J and he'd probably bet the flop with them if he had it. You'd expect KQ to usually bet the flop but I can see him checking it sometimes. I really don't think his line makes sense for TJ or AA either.

I think his range is almost entirely flopped sets with a slightly smaller chance of KQ here and less than 30% chance of a bluff + worse made hand.

I'd puke fold. Thoughts?

what stakes is this?

I think you guys give these villians too much credit. I think this is as much a scared QQ as it is anything else. He's just waiting to see if an A falls or the FD hits.

I still call, I think we're ahead here a lot. oversets are not very common and would have probably bet/raised with double FD's.

so he's prob repping the straight on the river. I only see KQ playing it like this maybe (and he's paying too much and the straight might not be good whenever a 3rd heart falls.)

Taking into consideration all of the above I call here

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

I think you guys give these villians too much credit. I think this is as much a scared QQ as it is anything else. He's just waiting to see if an A falls or the FD hits.

You may have a point.. I say call, chalk it up to variance and find some spots where you really are losing EV.

I fold and hate it.

I think I fold here. I wish river was 9h, that'd make it an easier fold.

TJ - you don't think QQ would bet flop or at least raise turn?

1) there is no way a hand that beats you *should* play this hand this way, except, maybe, KQh/s

2) there are a lot of donks out there who don't recognise a dangerous flop, who pathologically slowplay sets and overpairs, who chase draws with terrible odds. There *aren't* a lot of donks out there who raise all-in on a board that's just made an obvious straight if they don't have it, unless they've been slowplaying a set/overpair and are belatedly thinking "ohhhh shit".

I think it's a marginal fold since the only hands that you beat that might make this play and make any kind of sense are TJ and AA.

Originally Posted by Pelion

what stakes is this?

This is .10/.20.
I was watching my gf play, and I puked on the river and said:

Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

gotta call

Is this more of a call on these stakes or more of a fold?
I can see arguments for both:
"At these stakes this is less likely a bluff, but more likely an overpair" and so on....

Originally Posted by Ash256

Is UTG+1 loose enough to be popping J9/T9 here?

Villain is completely unknown, but this is donk stakes on iPoker, so I assume he is terrible...wait...I know he is terrible after this hand.

wow im surprised by the replies. this is a pretty standard call, were getting good odds and we have a set. the flush draw missed. theres all kinds of shit in his range here that we beat. the only really realistic thing that beats us is KQ. obviously it kinda sucks because u know your set might be beat but theres no way you should fold here.

missed flush draw isnt in his range after the strength our line has showed

fold

i've noticed that when a low stakes player as the pfr seemingly gives up on early streets and then shows tremendous strength on the river, he usually has tremendous strength.

Originally Posted by Pelion

missed flush draw isnt in his range after the strength our line has showed

yeah it is. hero bet the river kinda small too, probably should have made it more. fd is def in his range, yeah he probably doesnt play it that way but its an unknown and u cant just say that its not part of his range.

Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

Originally Posted by Pelion

missed flush draw isnt in his range after the strength our line has showed

yeah it is. hero bet the river kinda small too, probably should have made it more. fd is def in his range, yeah he probably doesnt play it that way but its an unknown and u cant just say that its not part of his range.

20NL players are rarely shoving over missed draws on the river like this. Shit almost no player is shoving a missed draw on the river with this line unless they are complete maniacs.

are you folding JJ or 1010 here if for some reason you played them this way?

No because it was close anyway and now he could have slowplayed other sets (including now 55 since you don't have it).

I think the correct move may be to fold, and if it is it is very very close, but...

1. I can't fold here and feel good.
2. It doesn't matter because making big laydowns isn't very important.

Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

wow im surprised by the replies. this is a pretty standard call...

This is exactly what I thought at first.
Then after a while I kept thinking about it, and it started bugging me more and more.

Anyways thanks for all the replies!

If anyone cares, I told her to call and villain flipped over JJ... gg.