yeti theorem.. or spew theorem...

-just wondering how good/spew/bad this turn play is?
-I have no real reads on villain, other than he's playing quite a few hands (running 50/20) but only over like 60 or so hands
-and yah, some of you will say "fold preflop" and I don't always raise these hands from out of position, but sometimes I loosen up if most of the table is playing too tight! I'd rather concentrate on the turn

-when I saw this flop, I could have bet, but I decided I would check the flop and check raise the turn and rep a slow played AK or something

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $225.40
CO: $197
Button: $162.80
SB: $89
BB: $22.79

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with
Hero raises to $8, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: ($19, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $6, Hero calls.

Turn: ($31, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $6, Hero raises to $23, Button raises to $46, Hero raises all-in $211.4

against a good thinking villain, maybe this is good. Vs. a very loose villain with no history, i think this is spew.

ugh

villain has Jx here a huge % of the time. getting him/her to fold it will be very tough

Your raise preflop isn't bad at all on a tight table, just don't overplay TP.

I like the turn raise. His 3-bet doesn't necessarily mean K or J if he's any good. Therefor I minraise as a 4-bet, he'll drop the J or any non K/J just as often as when you push and you can fold to a 5-bet. It cost less and accomplishes the same thing.

Only my opinion but I'm almost sure he has a king, not even a Jack, his min bet is to see if you have anything/induce a bluff raise. Once he min re-raises the turn I fold and run...
I think the yeti-theorem can apply, but these cards are such a big part of your range that he would bet at them, just very small to try keep you in and see if you have anything that might pay him off.
I think I might also test it (the theorem) on the turn but once he min re-raises...§
I fold.
(The min reraise looks like hes 'testing' to see if you 'really have a king' which might make sense if the board was 6886 and he was testing to see if you really had an 8 but not on this board given you were the pfr utg.)

Lets suppose he did have the K. Why would he 3-bet me on the turn, wouldn't that just fold all worse hands/draws and only get called by a K? especially given that he had position on me. I suppose he could be hoping I call with a J.

It just seemed weird that he'd do that with a K..

Originally Posted by griffey24

Lets suppose he did have the K. Why would he 3-bet me on the turn, wouldn't that just fold all worse hands/draws and only get called by a K? especially given that he had position on me. I suppose he could be hoping I call with a J.

It just seemed weird that he'd do that with a K..

He's 50/20 = he's stupid. Someone who hates folding preflop that much probably doesn't think very far beyond his own hole cards.

Yes I think a proper three bet on the turn would fold out better hands but not a min 3-bet.

(In fact just a few posts down is a hand hypermagachi posted where he had trips on the flop (slightly different scenario but he wanted to know the best play when the dude bet into him. (He had Aq on xAA flop.)
I wrote that if we just call then the best we can hope to get (from hands we beat) is a 1/3 pot crying call with a value bet on the river and that I often elect to min raise.

My exact response was..

"Or higher I like to think then min-raise, try to make them think I have a hand like QQ/KK and I'm just 'checking' to see if they really have an ace, then they sometimes try bluff push. "

Which it seems like is exactly what happened in your hand, the minraise was enable to induce a bluff shove from A5.

(Again the nature of the board JKKJ & you being pfr is what indicates the possible real strength in the min re-raise... on a 6886 board the turn min re-raise (if he had an 8) would fold out all hands he beats - higher pairs - that he could get value out of on the river - and therefore a 3bet here is more likely to be a bluff/weakness.)

Again not really sure of any of this just my opinion.

No unknown folds trips/FHs, definately spew.

Doing anything but a really simple easy bluff against a 50/20 is pretty much always a spew.

yah ok I was pretty sure this was spew, and now I'm even more sure.

oh and villain had KK for quad kings lol ... see now given villain's hand that surprises me even MORE than he would 3-bet on the turn. Since he knows that I don' t have a K even.

interesting...

Originally Posted by griffey24

Lets suppose he did have the K. Why would he 3-bet me on the turn, wouldn't that just fold all worse hands/draws and only get called by a K?

Apparently not...

Lots of TAGs have a tendency to bluff re-raise when someone makes a small raise, that's pretty much the principle behind the Yeti Theorem and it can be used against them.

Edit: I posted this before I read the results. I think his turn 3-bet was perfectly sized, which is probably just a coincidence because he played the rest of the hand terribly.

Originally Posted by griffey24

yah ok I was pretty sure this was spew, and now I'm even more sure.

oh and villain had KK for quad kings lol ... see now given villain's hand that surprises me even MORE than he would 3-bet on the turn. Since he knows that I don' t have a K even.

interesting...

At some point he has to try and make you do something stupid. He did, and you did.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Edit: I posted this before I read the results. I think his turn 3-bet was perfectly sized, which is probably just a coincidence because he played the rest of the hand terribly.

besides the preflop call, i think the flop and turn are fine. he's got quads...the board is dry besides the flush draw (which is folding to a larger bet).

maybe he could bet more on the turn...like $10 to make it 1/3.

min 3bets from 50/20's are never bluffs.

and I'f im raising the turn, I'm raising it closer to pot

Your thinking on flop and turn are fine. But you really have to fold to the 3bet there. He either has the Jack and might call (50/20 donks) or he has the King. Shoving is terrible.

And just dont bluff these guys at all besides some cbets and reraises here and there. Never pull 3barrels or 5bet AI crap it just wont work.

I don't think of myself as a nit, but how are rediculous bluffs like this not just spew? You check raised and got min-reraised. Doesn't look like he was bluffing back.

Originally Posted by mixchange

I don't think of myself as a nit, but how are rediculous bluffs like this not just spew? You check raised and got min-reraised. Doesn't look like he was bluffing back.

Yah I agree.. its definitely spew. I feel like a very high percentage of my losses lately are just straight up spew.. ugh. Anyone wanna have a spewing contest?

Thanks for all the replies.. this was definitely bad! I need to post crap like this, so that I don't do it anymore.

Your check call on the flop looks like a jack. So, when the second jack comes, he will assume you (an unknown to him, I assume) are thinking "woo, a boat!", and that although you *should* be aware of the kings, this might be the time to see whether you'll play for stacks.

skimming through this thread i have two thoughts.
1. This isnt yeti theorem.
2. Stop acting like 50/20's know how to play poker. Also dont act like a lot of 20/17's know how to play poker.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

skimming through this thread i have two thoughts.
1. This isnt yeti theorem.
2. Stop acting like 50/20's know how to play poker. Also dont act like a lot of 20/17's know how to play poker.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

skimming through this thread i have two thoughts.
1. This isnt yeti theorem.
2. Stop acting like 50/20's know how to play poker. Also dont act like a lot of 20/17's know how to play poker.

yup.

Bloody-mindedly refusing to believe river 3-bets on a filthy board when you're bluffing is not going to win you a lot of money.

The arrogance of FTR posters in the assumption that everyone they play who they can't prove is good is a complete donkey is probably behind the relative lack of success of a lot of players who could be pwning the game.

People who don't know how to play poker ARE NOT BLUFF MIN-RE-RAISING RIVERS.

OR TURNS

SHUT UP