You're bluffing, I have the nuts....how to get your money

Villain 19/16/inf over 70 hands. He had a 3bet of 16% over this sample and it was obvious he was 3betting light. Nothing out of the ordinairy postflop though.

I don't have history enough with villain to shove flop. Gin turn, so now I need to maximize against his with bluffs overloaded range.

- Can I c/c turn c/shove river or am I missing too much value / he isn't bluffing enough?
- C/minraise turn? I can't see myself doing that as a bluff really.
- C/raise to 18?
- Just c/shove as that at least reps something like the the turned FD maybe?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($45.40)
UTG ($54.35)
Hero (MP) ($54.80)
CO ($52.40)
Button ($50)
SB ($50.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, 9
1 fold, Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 9, 2, 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, CO raises to $7.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($19.75) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $12.50, hero?

If you think there's a high likelihood he's bluffing I don't see why you'd do anything other than c/c, c/shove river.

Most of his b/c range on this turn are 9x or boats which will all bet the river anyhow. He might have turned some backdoor draw, and we want him to get there.

Originally Posted by griffey24

If you think there's a high likelihood he's bluffing I don't see why you'd do anything other than c/c, c/shove river.

Most of his b/c range on this turn are 9x or boats which will all bet the river anyhow. He might have turned some backdoor draw, and we want him to get there.

Yep

Originally Posted by griffey24

Most of his b/c range on this turn are 9x or boats which will all bet the river anyhow. He might have turned some backdoor draw, and we want him to get there.

Is it drawy enough that CiB will get more value than calling and extracting the incredibly rare river bluffs? I think that would be my play.

I c/c turn, and plan to c/r river pretty much always in these spots. Even though villains always seem to give up their bluffs on the river I cant think of a better plan.

Originally Posted by bjsaust

I c/c turn, and plan to c/r river pretty much always in these spots. Even though villains always seem to give up their bluffs on the river I cant think of a better plan.

Yeah this is basically what I'm worried about. If villain is probably not bluffing river much, shouldn't I c/r small to get some value from turned draws.