Whats your play? 3/6 NL

[spino1i]

My read on villain was a high pocket pair (above queen). Villain is an aggressive player.

The question here is, do you push all-in (like I did) or do you just raise the minimum?

***** Hand History for Game 2304924975 *****
$600 NL Hold'em - Sunday, July 03, 20:18:15 EDT 2005
Table Table 36989 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Max___1 ( $251.75 )
Seat 2: toodumb2bluf ( $589.85 )
Seat 3: jswin51 ( $1456.85 )
Seat 4: glamp1 ( $322.8 )
Seat 10: milipa ( $123 )
Seat 6: wemerr ( $585 )
Seat 8: EvilEcstasy_ ( $826.4 )
Seat 5: MoneyAintSht ( $580.15 )
Seat 9: Mr__Rake ( $588 )
Seat 7: Vivatma ( $600 )
milipa posts small blind [$3].
Max___1 posts big blind [$6].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to EvilEcstasy_ [ 8d 9d ]
toodumb2bluf calls [$6].
jswin51 folds.
glamp1 folds.
MoneyAintSht folds.
wemerr folds.
EvilEcstasy_ raises [$20].
Mr__Rake folds.
milipa folds.
Max___1 folds.
toodumb2bluf raises [$39].
EvilEcstasy_ calls [$25].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qd, 6s, 7d ]
toodumb2bluf bets [$75].
EvilEcstasy_ ???

[Les_Worm]

If you trust your read is correct then I push here every time. I mean you are a favorite, why not get your money in?

[spino1i]

If you trust your read is correct then I push here every time. I mean you are a favorite, why not get your money in?

Im only the 56.5-44.5 favorite. I like to have the odds a bit more in my favor when I go all-in.

The question is, if I just raise him, will he check the turn obediently or will he cause problems by pushing on the turn if I dont hit my draw? If I check behind on the turn, and on the river I hit, how much will he call?

[a500lbgorilla]

Just call. If you raise him, you give him the chance to push. Even if he just calls, and the turn bricks. Then what's your plan? I've lost interest in 1.2k flip games, personally.

-'rilla

[spino1i]

Just call. If you raise him, you give him the chance to push. Even if he just calls, and the turn bricks. Then what's your plan? I've lost interest in 1.2k flip games, personally.

-'rilla

Well I agree, and while its not quite a coin flip its close enough for me to not have much interest either (I was really hoping he'd fold to my all in). If I just call problem is he pushes on the turn and I'm kinda screwed.

I actually dont think if I raise him he'll push, unless he likes walking into sets. But im not sure about this, he is an aggressive player.

[a500lbgorilla]

Just call. If you raise him, you give him the chance to push. Even if he just calls, and the turn bricks. Then what's your plan? I've lost interest in 1.2k flip games, personally.

-'rilla

Well I agree, and while its not quite a coin flip its close enough for me. If I just call problem is he pushes on the turn and I'm kinda screwed.

I actually dont think if I raise him he'll push, unless he likes walking into sets. But im not sure about this, he is an aggressive player.

You still can't raise him unless you plan on pushing any turn and feel he'll fold a decent amount of the time.

-'rilla

[spino1i]

If you raise on flop, he calls, and the turn bricks you have to check behind, since he'll probably call an all-in here. Problem is, if you just call like your suggesting, what do you do when the turn bricks and he pushes?

[a500lbgorilla]

If the turn bricks you have to check behind, he'll probably call an all-in here. Problem is, if you just call like your suggesting, what do you do when the turn bricks and he pushes?

Oh, I thought you were out of position.

-'rilla

[spino1i]

If the turn bricks you have to check behind, he'll probably call an all-in here. Problem is, if you just call like your suggesting, what do you do when the turn bricks and he pushes?

Oh, I thought you were out of position.

-'rilla

Yes I have position on him

[a500lbgorilla]

Raising to try and buy a free card on the turn is g00t. Gotta call a push on the flop if it happens. Hand plays itself on the river.

-'rilla

[spino1i]

Raising to try and buy a free card on the turn is g00t. Gotta call a push on the flop if it happens. Hand plays itself on the river.

-'rilla

OK this is what I thought, I just worried that he would somehow think I was semi-bluffing and try to push on the turn, but now that I think about it, thats not likely to happen, he'll prolly be scared to shit lol

[spino1i]

The rest of the hand:

EvilEcstasy_ is all-In [$781.4]
>You have options at Table 37043 Table!.
toodumb2bluf: queens or sevens?
>You have options at Table 37043 Table!.
toodumb2bluf is all-In [$469.85]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3s ]
** Dealing River ** [ Td ]
toodumb2bluf shows [ Ah, Ac ] a pair of aces.
EvilEcstasy_ shows [ 8d, 9d ] a flush, queen high.
EvilEcstasy_ wins $236.55 from side pot #1 with a flush, queen high.
EvilEcstasy_ wins $1185.7 from the main pot with a flush, queen high.

[Les_Worm]

If you trust your read is correct then I push here every time. I mean you are a favorite, why not get your money in?

Im only the 56.5-44.5 favorite. I like to have the odds a bit more in my favor when I go all-in.

The odds are in your favor, it really doesn't matter how much over the long run. Pushing here everytime is +EV. If he folds you win the pot right there. If he calls you are winning more often.

[a500lbgorilla]

If you trust your read is correct then I push here every time. I mean you are a favorite, why not get your money in?

Im only the 56.5-44.5 favorite. I like to have the odds a bit more in my favor when I go all-in.

The odds are in your favor, it really doesn't matter how much over the long run. Pushing here everytime is +EV. If he folds you win the pot right there. If he calls you are winning more often.

Yes, but Les. We've just lost interest in 1.2k flip games so we're trying to figure out another way.

-'rilla

[spino1i]

If you trust your read is correct then I push here every time. I mean you are a favorite, why not get your money in?

Im only the 56.5-44.5 favorite. I like to have the odds a bit more in my favor when I go all-in.

The odds are in your favor, it really doesn't matter how much over the long run. Pushing here everytime is +EV. If he folds you win the pot right there. If he calls you are winning more often.

You're forgetting the variance factor. At these high of stakes, I dont want variance, or at least that sort of variance (and all-in coinflips are the number one way to create variance lol), because my bankroll is only so big. I'd prefer to get my bankroll bigger the most risk-free possible way.

I think in this hand there might be a way of getting his whole stack if i hit and only losing a small part of my stake of i miss (i.e. by minraising the flop and check behind'ing the turn)

[dsaxton]

If someone is offering to double your money, or take all but $1 on the flip of a coin, obviously you take that gamble every time. You'll win money in the long-run.

[spino1i]

If someone is offering to double your money, or take all but $1 on the flip of a coin, obviously you take that gamble every time. You'll win money in the long-run.

Well it depends on how much money is being wagered each flip. If its 3000$, and I only have 13000$, I'm definitely not interested in this flipping game, because the advantage to me is miniscule and there is a much larger chance I could lose all my money by playing the flipping game.

In other words, I have a higher chance of going broke before I see any advantage from the extra 1$.

This is the same reason I like to avoid coin-flip hands in hold 'em as well..

I have a higher chance of losing enough of my BR to be forced to move down to lower stakes before I see the extra money from the slight advantage the flip brings me.

[a500lbgorilla]

If someone is offering to double your money, or take all but $1 on the flip of a coin, obviously you take that gamble every time. You'll win money in the long-run.

Clearly the logic behind gambling is not lost on us. We're just trying to draw another line that is +EV and not a 1.2k flip game. Can't anyone appreciate this?

-'rilla

[DoGGz]

If someone is offering to double your money, or take all but $1 on the flip of a coin, obviously you take that gamble every time. You'll win money in the long-run.

Clearly the logic behind gambling is not lost on us. We're just trying to draw another line that is +EV and not a 1.2k flip game. Can't anyone appreciate this?

-'rilla

OK let me explain this so people can understand.

We all know that if we are 51% to win, it's a good bet, no one is suggesting that.

What they are suggesting is some of them are looking to play professionally, to pay the bills, for income. If you can lower variance it allows for more consistant winnings. So they make 2000$/week instead of 2100$/week, they'll give up that extra 100 to avoid crazy swings.


Ok, thread closed.

[dsaxton]

If someone is offering to double your money, or take all but $1 on the flip of a coin, obviously you take that gamble every time. You'll win money in the long-run.

Clearly the logic behind gambling is not lost on us. We're just trying to draw another line that is +EV and not a 1.2k flip game. Can't anyone appreciate this?

-'rilla

I was being sarcastic.

[spino1i]

If someone is offering to double your money, or take all but $1 on the flip of a coin, obviously you take that gamble every time. You'll win money in the long-run.

Clearly the logic behind gambling is not lost on us. We're just trying to draw another line that is +EV and not a 1.2k flip game. Can't anyone appreciate this?

-'rilla

I was being sarcastic.

doh! sorry didnt realize

[a500lbgorilla]

If someone is offering to double your money, or take all but $1 on the flip of a coin, obviously you take that gamble every time. You'll win money in the long-run.

Clearly the logic behind gambling is not lost on us. We're just trying to draw another line that is +EV and not a 1.2k flip game. Can't anyone appreciate this?

-'rilla

I was being sarcastic.

Oh, my apologies.

-'rilla

[gabe]

If you trust your read is correct then I push here every time. I mean you are a favorite, why not get your money in?

Im only the 56.5-44.5 favorite. I like to have the odds a bit more in my favor when I go all-in.

in a cash game, its never correct to pass up an +EV situation. its not a tournament where when you lose you are out, just rebuy. the only reason not to take it is if you don't have the bankroll for the game.

[a500lbgorilla]

If you trust your read is correct then I push here every time. I mean you are a favorite, why not get your money in?

Im only the 56.5-44.5 favorite. I like to have the odds a bit more in my favor when I go all-in.

in a cash game, its never correct to pass up an +EV situation. its not a tournament where when you lose you are out, just rebuy. the only reason not to take it is if you don't have the bankroll for the game.

Can everyone stop replying to posts in High stakes with Small stakes theories?

-'rilla

[dsaxton]

If you trust your read is correct then I push here every time. I mean you are a favorite, why not get your money in?

Im only the 56.5-44.5 favorite. I like to have the odds a bit more in my favor when I go all-in.

in a cash game, its never correct to pass up an +EV situation. its not a tournament where when you lose you are out, just rebuy. the only reason not to take it is if you don't have the bankroll for the game.

Can everyone stop replying to posts in High stakes with Small stakes theories?

-'rilla

What? As far as I know, there's poker theory, not small stakes poker theory, and high stakes poker theory. The game doesn't change when the chips become more expensive.

Maybe give him a reason why his idea isn't valid, rather than just saying "that's so small stakes."

[gabe]

If you trust your read is correct then I push here every time. I mean you are a favorite, why not get your money in?

Im only the 56.5-44.5 favorite. I like to have the odds a bit more in my favor when I go all-in.

in a cash game, its never correct to pass up an +EV situation. its not a tournament where when you lose you are out, just rebuy. the only reason not to take it is if you don't have the bankroll for the game.

Can everyone stop replying to posts in High stakes with Small stakes theories?

-'rilla

if i remember correctly, you play small stakes (2/4) now. since you have cerainly not 'proven yourself' at any high stakes tables, maybe you should refrain from posting ideas here yourself.

also, i would like you to share for me when it is correct o pass up in +$EV situation in a cash game. thanks.

[SinkRox]

spino i notice your roll covers apprx. 20 buy-ins... out of interest if you lost 5 would you drop down a level or so to rebuild?

[spino1i]

spino i notice your roll covers apprx. 20 buy-ins... out of interest if you lost 5 would you drop down a level or so to rebuild?

I now have about 24 buy-ins (added a few since this hand) for 600 NL. If I found my BR below 10000$ (so thats less than 17 buy-ins) I would drop down to 2/4.

I'm upping my bankroll standards considerable at the higher stakes. Part of the reason for this is because the competition at 3/6 NL is goddamn tough! lol Seriously I have never played against better players in my life.

The only reason my bankroll is growing right now is because I'm getting lucky, as I've been outplayed multiple times and just bad beat the other guy.

600 NL full ring games on Party are very very hard, if you want to learn watch them.

[spino1i]

if i remember correctly, you play small stakes (2/4) now. since you have cerainly not 'proven yourself' at any high stakes tables, maybe you should refrain from posting ideas here yourself.

also, i would like you to share for me when it is correct o pass up in +$EV situation in a cash game. thanks.

I can think of a good reason. Suppose the odds are 50.1-49.9 in you're favor but you have to call an all-in (and you have no money in the pot) to see these odds, and you only have 20 buy-ins as you just started at new higher stakes.

I would not be interested in making this call, because the chance of me seeing the effect of the very slight +EV from making this decision would be smaller than the chance of me busting out (or being forced to move to lower stakes) because I did this too many times.

Sure if you had a 1000 buy-in roll it would be OK to do this, but no one is going to stay at given stakes that long.

[gabe]

if i remember correctly, you play small stakes (2/4) now. since you have cerainly not 'proven yourself' at any high stakes tables, maybe you should refrain from posting ideas here yourself.

also, i would like you to share for me when it is correct o pass up in +$EV situation in a cash game. thanks.

I can think of a good reason. Suppose the odds are 50.1-49.9 in you're favor but you have to call an all-in (and you have no money in the pot) to see these odds, and you only have 20 buy-ins as you just started at new higher stakes.

I would not be interested in making this call, because the chance of me seeing the effect of the very slight +EV from making this decision would be smaller than the chance of me busting out (or being forced to move to lower stakes) because I did this too many times.

Sure if you had a 1000 buy-in roll it would be OK to do this, but no one is going to stay at given stakes that long.

thats why i said something like "unless you don't have the bankroll" in the first post. i think you are right, the higher the buyin, the higher tha bankroll requirements.

[a500lbgorilla]

if i remember correctly, you play small stakes (2/4) now. since you have cerainly not 'proven yourself' at any high stakes tables, maybe you should refrain from posting ideas here yourself.

also, i would like you to share for me when it is correct o pass up in +$EV situation in a cash game. thanks.

My comment wasn't geared towards you so much as most thread responses in this forum. I'm just about done with this forum. If people can't appreciate my attempts to create discussions involving variance lowering approaches to hands, then I'll just stop.

The line me and spinoli came up with is probably equal in EV and smaller in variance.

You raise the flop to try and buy a free card on the turn. If you hit the straight, it's your big 1.2k pot. If you hit your flush, you've got a value bet on the river that might get called. If you miss, you're home free. You're going to get called on the flop if you just push almost every time. If he pushes, I'm not saying fold. The attempt is to create a line with less variance.

Also, I'd like to apologize again to gabe. I dunno why you're so angry at me, but I'm sorry bro.

-'rilla

[gabe]

friends 4 life