Bought Poker Flash Cards, they seem wrong.

[vegaas2]

Hey all, saw an article at the ESPN Poker Club about Poker Flash Cards, they seemed to like them so I ordered them. They stats they give just seem wrong to me. Here are some examples:

They say the odds of the board pairing is 45% on the turn or river.

You have a gutshot straight draw after the flop, they say you will hit the straight about 20% of the time.

They say if you hold an Ace you will flop one 20% of the time.

They say that if you hold an Ace the chance someone else also holds one at a full ten person table is 75%!

I am n0t a math wizard, but these numbers sure seem wrong to me.

[ensign_lee]

They sure sound wrong to me...

[Ivory]

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=9366

maybe you can find something in here to confirm your suspicions

[vegaas2]

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=9366

maybe you can find something in here to confirm your suspicions

Wow, a lot of info in that thread.

The cards only cost like $8, so not big loss there. But damn, if they are going to make them, get the damn numbers right.

[DoGGz]

Um...

Gut shot draw is 4 outs on the turn 4 on the river. That's 8/46.5 . I'm not really sure why these are wrong.

[IowaSkinsFan]

these seem utterly right to me....

[a500lbgorilla]

How awesome is that!

Teaching the new generation incorrectly makes me so hot.

-'rilla

[zenbitz]

Gut shot draw on flop by river is 1 - (41/45 * 40/44) = 17.2%. If you are heads up and the other guy doesn't have any of your outs it's 1-(39/43 * 38/42) = 18%.

Throw is some backdoor straights and I think you are close to 20%.

Odds of board pairing assuming all "outs" are live, 2 players : 1-(34/43*33/42) = 38% PLUS chance that turn pairs river = 34/43*3/42 = 5.6%, total ~43.6%.

if you hold an ace (and opponent does not), you flop at least 1 more 1-(45/48* 44/47* 43/46) = 18% of the time.

So, it looks like they just rounded up some.

[Greedo017]

yea, i didn't like check it to the exactness, but just in my head, they're all right in the ballpark, maybe high by 1-2%.

[vegaas2]

Ok, as I said, I am not a mathmatician, so its looks as if they are right, just a little bit inflated. Wow, the things you learn as you delve deeper into the game.

Ok, as I said, I am not a mathmatician, so its looks as if they are right, just a little bit inflated. Wow, the things you learn as you delve deeper into the game.

Not inflated, rounded.

[nickthefool]

If you hold one Ace, the chance of at least one other person at a 10 person table holding one is 74.69% to 2 decimal places. So that one is pretty accurate. I would say they are probably fairly accurate given conditions, such as live outs, how many other players in the hand, etc.

[Darby]

FTR should come out with bogus flash cards to market and sell to unknowing fish....

Such as, you will hit your inside straight about 60% of the time...