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for what its worth
 Originally Posted by Silly String
I've read this a couple times, b/c a few views and no replies. I screwed up the turn didn't I? I should have made the decision to follow through on the hand or drop the hand(i.e. bet more or not bet) on the turn and well before my turn to act on the river. What do you think?
think about preflop action & how it matches up w/ what happened on the flop. what is he likely to have called a 9xbb middle-position raise with?
ak/aq is a possibility, middle pp (tt/jj) is another. qq/kk/qq would also fit the bill, although flat calling 9xbb w/ any large pp in last position seems like too passive of a play to me. small pp is also a possibility if he was hoping to nail a set on the flop & milk it against high pp. i don't think you had to worry about anybody holding trash face cards here (ie., qt for two-pair or kj for open-ended) unless the whole table stank of fishyness.
if he was holding aq & you bet pot-sized into him, he would've probably reraised. tp queens tk is still very vulnerable on a 2-color flop (once again, assuming that the guy isn't a complete fish) so i wouldn't put him on a lone queen here.
if he had an overpair (kk/aa) he would've probably reraised you to protect it.
if he was holding ak, he would've probably dumped it to a pot-sized bet UNLESS he also had the nut flush draw. very few people chase w/ two overs & a gutshot but plenty will w/ nut flush, gutshot AND two overs.
if he had a small pp, he would've chucked it in a second. chances are that he would've also dumped jacks.
one option remains, the likeliest of all: he made a set w/either qq or tt & the flat call on the flop was a milker. the q on the turn makes it unlikely that he was holding qq, so my guess would probably be tt. it fits the preflop bill nicely (flat call in last position instead of a reraise, which would've been likely if he was holding qq) & it makes sense in terms of postflop too.
i probably would've checked the hand to the river after the flat call on the flop. i often mistake pot-sized flat calls for flush chasing, but given the preflop action in this hand, i believe you were beaten on the flop & the feeler bet on the turn was a mistake.
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