Tricky hand with AQ

[DoGGz]

***** Hand History for Game 2956424068 *****
$400 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, October 30, 20:51:45 EDT 2005
Table Table 65275 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Halibut555 ( $399.81 )
Seat 2: mMagic_Cards ( $455.45 )
Seat 3: JudJop ( $572 )
Seat 4: pokerpoet2 ( $379.70 )
Seat 6: HaileyMDF ( $274.90 )
Seat 7: RErbBK ( $985.05 )
Seat 8: BeMyGuest ( $431 )
Seat 10: im8yearsold ( $794.05 )
Seat 5: pilotdex ( $207 )
Seat 9: beansteen ( $379.40 )
RErbBK posts small blind [$2].
BeMyGuest posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to mMagic_Cards [ Ac Qh ]
beansteen calls [$4].
im8yearsold folds.
Halibut555 calls [$4].
mMagic_Cards raises [$15].
folds.
beansteen calls [$11].
Halibut555 calls [$11].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, 6h, As ]
beansteen checks.
Halibut555 bets [$30].
mMagic_Cards calls [$30].
beansteen folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kd ]
Halibut555 bets [$35].
mMagic_Cards calls [$35].
** Dealing River ** [ 9h ]
Halibut555 bets [$80].
????????????

Where am I at here?

[Demiparadigm]

Why are you just calling?
If he has an ace you have given him no reason to think he is behind. You need to call the river bet.
I personally would raise the flop to define my hand and take control of the betting.

[DoGGz]

Why are you just calling?
If he has an ace you have given him no reason to think he is behind. You need to call the river bet.
I personally would raise the flop to define my hand and take control of the betting.

I think I was worried about his pretty large bet, considering his limp/call preflop action. Logically the only hands that make that play that I have beat are AJ-8.

[Pingviini]

Tough one here. His betting indicates that he has a set or Ax with 2 pair but is that really the case here? You got any reads this time?

Reraising on flop could cause you some trouble. First, if you check on turn and he bets big on river you have no idea where you stand because he could be bluffing because he saw you were weak OR he could be strong and his intention was to CR you on turn. Still a better play than calling all the way IMO.

second option which I like to use against unknown opponents is to call the bet on flop and then see what he does on turn, his bet looks rather weak but there arent really any reasonable draws either so he either has a weak ace or a monster he wants you to re-raise. I still re-raise to $70 or so to make him check on river (or fold on turn). Will save you $40 compared to calling if it works out. Also, when you show strength on turn and he bets big on river you can be fairly sure you are beat and I would definitely fold on river in that perticular scenario. Thoughts?

my 0,02€

[DoGGz]

Tough one here. His betting indicates that he has a set or Ax with 2 pair but is that really the case here? You got any reads this time?

Reraising on flop could cause you some trouble. First, if you check on turn and he bets big on river you have no idea where you stand because he could be bluffing because he saw you were weak OR he could be strong and his intention was to CR you on turn. Still a better play than calling all the way IMO.

second option which I like to use against unknown opponents is to call the bet on flop and then see what he does on turn, his bet looks rather weak but there arent really any reasonable draws either so he either has a weak ace or a monster he wants you to re-raise. I still re-raise to $70 or so to make him check on river (or fold on turn). Will save you $40 compared to calling if it works out. Also, when you show strength on turn and he bets big on river you can be fairly sure you are beat and I would definitely fold on river in that perticular scenario. Thoughts?

my 0,02€

I actually wanted to fold the flop, because like I said there's no logical hands that I'm beating that make this play. I also didn't want to raise, because then the pot is really out of control. No way he has a set.

The turn he pretty much bet the same as on the flop. So I am thinking he's either scared I have AK (and he has a6 a4) or he him self has AK. I still don't beat either of them, I still should be folding.

The river he bets huge and I still know I'm beat, i have to be beat, right?

[Pingviini]

If you think you are beat on the flop, fold on the flop.
If you think you are beat on turn, fold on turn.
If you think you are beat on river, fold on river.

You gotta trust your reads! but you know this..

All these considering you dont have odds to call or you cant push him out of his hand. (naturally)

[DoGGz]

I'm just trying to understand how other people see these hands. Objective analasis from other people much more effective.

[dalecooper]

He limped in and then called a raise pre-flop. What hands typically do this? Pocket pairs, suited connectors, modest high card hands (KQ, AJ, AT, maybe even AQ). That's range 1.

He bet out aggressively on the flop - that's more than a 3/4 pot bet he fired at you - and you were the pre-flop raiser, acting after him. A better hand than yours like a set or two pair would probably check-raise; and given the board, two pair is unlikely unless he's a fish who really likes hands like A6 and A4. A set almost never bets that strongly in this situation. His most likely hand is in this group: AJ, AT, maybe AQ or A9.

He bet again but somewhat weakly on the turn. He is slowing down; he's nervous that you're ahead of him (and you probably are). If you aren't going to raise the flop, raising the turn is appropriate and strong.

By the river we have no idea what his last bet might mean. You've been calling, calling, calling and he's value-betting the best hand (he thinks), or trying to force you out, or just attacking weakness without a real strategy. I can't narrow his range of hands from that last action.

Hands that are ahead of you on this board: AK, A9, A6, KK, 99, 66, 44. Of these, I think the pre-flop action USUALLY rules out AK and KK (he didn't raise). The flop action rules out 66 and 44. The only hands I'd be worried about are A9 and A6, and not that many players limp/call with those pre-flop in a full ring game. I think you're ahead here, and as played, I call the river bet.

[UG]

Excellent analysis, Dalecooper. That was awesome.

[DoGGz]

He limped in and then called a raise pre-flop. What hands typically do this? Pocket pairs, suited connectors, modest high card hands (KQ, AJ, AT, maybe even AQ). That's range 1.

He bet out aggressively on the flop - that's more than a 3/4 pot bet he fired at you - and you were the pre-flop raiser, acting after him. A better hand than yours like a set or two pair would probably check-raise; and given the board, two pair is unlikely unless he's a fish who really likes hands like A6 and A4. A set almost never bets that strongly in this situation. His most likely hand is in this group: AJ, AT, maybe AQ or A9.

He bet again but somewhat weakly on the turn. He is slowing down; he's nervous that you're ahead of him (and you probably are). If you aren't going to raise the flop, raising the turn is appropriate and strong.

By the river we have no idea what his last bet might mean. You've been calling, calling, calling and he's value-betting the best hand (he thinks), or trying to force you out, or just attacking weakness without a real strategy. I can't narrow his range of hands from that last action.

Hands that are ahead of you on this board: AK, A9, A6, KK, 99, 66, 44. Of these, I think the pre-flop action USUALLY rules out AK and KK (he didn't raise). The flop action rules out 66 and 44. The only hands I'd be worried about are A9 and A6, and not that many players limp/call with those pre-flop in a full ring game. I think you're ahead here, and as played, I call the river bet.

If only poker was so easy

Villian shows

[Fnord]

I might find a fold on the flop (but I work with more information.)

With the information we have, I like calling it down.

[dalecooper]

If only poker was so easy

Villian shows

Unfortunately there's not much you can do about that, although I would have found a raise in there somewhere rather than a calldown. I like a raise on the turn here - of course he would have re-raised you; maybe you can let go of it then, I dunno. Make a note on him and move on. Limp-calling with AK pre-flop is pretty weird, and you won't run into it much. In this case it paid off big time for him, but it's generally going to be a bad play except at the most aggressive tables. If he can expect a late position raise basically every time, you can make a case for limping AK and surprising the hell out of people with it.

[Rondavu]

Raise the flop or turn and seek cheap showdown.

[DoGGz]

Raise the flop or turn and seek cheap showdown.

Raise on the turn is going to make a showdown expencive.

[dalecooper]

Raise the flop or turn and seek cheap showdown.

Raise on the turn is going to make a showdown expencive.

Only if you're beat. Take this hand for example. Let's say action goes exactly as it did up to the turn. He bets $35... you raise to let's say $80. This may rep to him that you're on AK, AA, or KK; it may also get him to simply slow down with AQ/AJ/AT. If he has AQ/AJ/AT he probably checks the river, and you can check behind for the cheap showdown. If he has what he actually had, he re-raises the turn and you exit the hand having spent $125. Or he smooth-calls (the slowplay) and then probably checks the river, hoping for another big bet from you that he can raise; you check behind, defeating his expectation, and still spend just $125. The way this actually went down, you spent $160 for the showdown - was that really the cheaper route?

I would argue that raising somewhere along the line, probably on the turn, is your best possible move on this hand and will make money in the long run. You just have to be disciplined enough to fold if he re-raises, or check behind on the river if he smooth calls and checks.

The only line I haven't brought up is a smooth call and bet (you raise the turn, he smooth calls, then bets big on the river). In that case I would prefer to call any reasonable bet and fold to a large (2/3 pot or more) bet. This is the only circumstance where you might end up spending as much for a showdown as what you actually did.

Remember - just because you're raising at some point in the hand doesn't mean you're married to your cards, or have to dump in the rest of your chips if and when he raises you.

[DoGGz]

Raise the flop or turn and seek cheap showdown.

Raise on the turn is going to make a showdown expencive.

Only if you're beat. Take this hand for example. Let's say action goes exactly as it did up to the turn. He bets $35... you raise to let's say $80. This may rep to him that you're on AK, AA, or KK; it may also get him to simply slow down with AQ/AJ/AT. If he has AQ/AJ/AT he probably checks the river, and you can check behind for the cheap showdown. If he has what he actually had, he re-raises the turn and you exit the hand having spent $125. Or he smooth-calls (the slowplay) and then probably checks the river, hoping for another big bet from you that he can raise; you check behind, defeating his expectation, and still spend just $125. The way this actually went down, you spent $160 for the showdown - was that really the cheaper route?

Well, if only I had the forsight to know when they will pile on a huge river bet. On top of that, when he bets $35, if I put in a raise it will be to AT LEAST $100. 85$ is a very small raise on the turn. I think your forgetting that part.

I would argue that raising somewhere along the line, probably on the turn, is your best possible move on this hand and will make money in the long run. You just have to be disciplined enough to fold if he re-raises, or check behind on the river if he smooth calls and checks.

The only line I haven't brought up is a smooth call and bet (you raise the turn, he smooth calls, then bets big on the river). In that case I would prefer to call any reasonable bet and fold to a large (2/3 pot or more) bet. This is the only circumstance where you might end up spending as much for a showdown as what you actually did.

Remember - just because you're raising at some point in the hand doesn't mean you're married to your cards, or have to dump in the rest of your chips if and when he raises you.

I still believe I should have folded the flop, because it was obvious I was behind.