Am I beat?

[IowaSkinsFan]

What to do... I just don't think there is any hand here that is not beating me, right?

Game #1133122309 - (blinds $0.05/$0.10) No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2005/12/04-21:26:25.3 (CST) Table "Cat Island" (real money) -- Seat 7 is the button Seat 1: dartcapt ($9.55 in chips) Seat 2: bkoenig73 ($3.90 in chips) Seat 3: HogChain ($8.49 in chips) Seat 4: shazz11 ($15.42 in chips) Seat 5: redgrape ($7.80 in chips) Seat 6: mctav ($4.00 in chips) Seat 7: Stalian1369 ($13.20 in chips) Seat 8: playerchad ($4.80 in chips) Seat 9: MIRuss ($3.70 in chips) Seat 10: suzi_qz ($18.62 in chips)
playerchad: Post Small Blind ($0.05)
MIRuss : Post Big Blind ($0.10)
mctav : Post ($0.10)
Dealing...
Dealt to redgrape [ Ks ]
Dealt to redgrape [ Ah ]
suzi_qz : Fold
dartcapt: Fold
bkoenig73: Fold
HogChain: Call ($0.10)
shazz11 : Fold
redgrape: Raise ($0.90)
mctav : Fold
Stalian1369: Fold
playerchad: Fold
MIRuss : Fold
HogChain: Call ($0.80)
*** FLOP *** : [ Kc 9d 7d ]
HogChain: Bet ($0.70)
redgrape: Raise ($2.60)
HogChain: Call ($1.90)
*** TURN *** : [ Kc 9d 7d ] [ Td ]
HogChain: Bet ($3) (and is all in)
redgrape said, "damnit..."
redgrape: Fold
HogChain: Winner -- doesn't show cards
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: $6.90 | Rake: $0.35
Board: [ Kc 9d 7d Td ]
dartcapt didn't bet (folded)
bkoenig73 didn't bet (folded)
HogChain bet $6.50, collected $9.90, net +$3.40
shazz11 didn't bet (folded)
redgrape lost $3.50 (folded) [ Ks Ah ] (a pair of kings) mctav lost $0.10 (folded)
Stalian1369 didn't bet (folded)
playerchad lost $0.05 (folded)
MIRuss lost $0.10 (folded)
suzi_qz didn't bet (folded)

[IowaSkinsFan]

bump

[DogOnMySide]

What do you put him on?
What does he think you have?

I think he thinks we DONT have a diamond.
I think he has one diamond, possibly the ace, maybe the K
I don't think J8 is much of a worry

I would call that, actually.

[Rondavu]

At these stakes it's tough to lay down TP, since it's so profitable to put your money in with. I actually put him on two pair in this spot. I think you're right to assess the board and believe you're beat or very close to it. You have good instincts. People play a lot of K9 KT K7. There's also a straight and a flush out there. I have to go with Dog on this one and think if he's working a made hand it's not made yet. He could very easily have the flush, but you don't often see this level of player semi bluff the draw that heavy on the flop.

You're probably getting the right price to play in this spot. The reason being that all the idiots price you in to pots at these stakes. Let me explain. In order for you to make the call here, you have to be ahead about 33% of the time. Since idiots are often behind when they get their money in, it stands to reason that you have a 1 in 3 shot to win this hand against other players in general that play here. If you were playing 100 or 200NL, I would say the number is closer to an 85-90% chance you're beat instead of the 66% you're facing here.

[IowaSkinsFan]

My logic:

I'm guessing he has trips here, since a lot of people at this level limp PP and hope for trips. Another possiblility is two pair, because he limped a suited connector and than just decided to call. Using this logic he could already have a straight or a flush.

If he has a K here, it's 50% it's a K of diamonds, and i would have to hope he has KQ, because with KJ he has a flush, inside straight, and two pair draw, which makes it only 63/37.

I just felt no matter what the hand he had here i was just beat or almost even money, and thats not good enough for me.

[IowaSkinsFan]

left out two pair like you mentioned

[siknd]

9x raise pf? id assume red queens or 999. its just not possible that he can have an unpaired hand here?!

id call since he ran out of money and the pots laying you about 3:1

[IowaSkinsFan]

Do you play $10 10 max, people just aren't that conservative... they'll call 90 cent raises with KQo or maybe sometimes J10s

[sejje]

I'm going to dissent and say you have to call here.

You might be beat, but KQ is very possible. I think if he made the flush, he plays it that way, but I don't think he plays the flush draw like that.

If you're beat, I think it's two pair.