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 Week 13 Plays
As we roll around to Week 13, we have several key divisional matchups that should play out very well on television. Unless you have a strong lean one way or the other, I would recommend not dropping the hammer any of these games as I think that some of them are a little too volatile for my taste.
Case in point:
Dallas @ New York (Giants):
My gut thinks that Dallas is the better team, but anything can happen in an interdivisional rivalry game that has HUGE playoff implications, especially when the team that I favor is on the road. Be careful with this one. That being said, if I were to bet this game, I would bet
DAL +3
0 units
Dallas , if they ever lose, tends to lose tight games, so with the +3, you may be safe enough that if Dallas loses by a field goal, you get a push. I think that they may win this one outright, however. It all depends on Bledsoe, though, and I'm not entirely comfortable putting my money on him.
Atlanta @ Carolina:
Carolina has been doing well lately, with the exception of the ass-kicking that the bears gave them a few weeks ago. Atlanta's defense has been playing an average game at best; their only good game so far has been against Detroit, which isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse. Their big weakness is the run, something which the Panthers like to lean on a little more than their passing game. I think that the Panther's running back stable will be able to rip them to shreds. People have become enamoured with Atlanta again as of late, bringing the line in their favor. Right now, you can get Carolina -3 at some very good odds. If you feel daring, you may even think about waiting and hoping the line drops to -2.5. I'm looking to move on this game, taking the best odds that I can find:
Carolina -3
1 unit
Cincinatti @ Pittsburgh:
Now, here may be one of the marquee matchups of the week. Too bad I won't be able to actually watch it, but I'll defnitely be keeping tabs on it. The public is jumping off of Pittsburgh's band wagon in droves, while simulataneously jumping on Cincinatti's.
Last week, Cincy absolutely DESTROYED a Ravens team that hasn't been all too impressive this year. Before that, they got in a shootout with Indy (is that the smartest thing in the world to do?) On the flip side, Pittsburgh lost at Baltimore in an overtime game, without their starting QB, and then proceeded to lose at Indy in more of a grind 'em out kind of game. The line started out at -4 and has now moved to -3.
Cowher, no doubt, is PISSED at the way his offense executed on MNF, and will be riding their asses hard. Come Sunday, they will play a physical, hard-nosed game: just their cup of tea. The Bengal's defensive weakness is the run, something that Pittsburgh just happens to excel at. The Steelers defense held Manning and Co. in check, or at least as close to in-check as is really possible against a rolling Indianapolis offense that works very similarly to the Bengals offense. Couple that with the fact that Pittsburgh is at home, and I think that the D in Pittsburgh will be able to win this game handily. However, as I said before, this is an important divisional rivalry with playoff implications, so this game's results may be volatile. As such, I'm not going heavily on this game, like I want to.
Pittsburgh -3
1 unit..............maybe 2 if I'm feeling frisky.
That does it for the scary divisional matchups. Now, here are the games that I like for the week without any big playoff implications.
Minnesota @ Detroit:
Detroit just fired their head coach; when was the last time a new head coach only needed 1 week to put some cohesiveness in his team? Couple that with the volatile chemistry now brewing in the Lions locker room with Dré Bly blasting Joey Harrington, and this points to an ill-prepared Lions team. Minnesota isn't spectacular, but they're surely better than Detroit. The public has been moving the line towards Detroit for some reason or other, bringing it to -2. I'm looking to move on this game, as soon matchbook moves their line. If they don't, I'll look to Olympic and bet there at the normal juice.
Minnesota -2
2 units
Buffalo @ Miami:
Now, I haven't done too much research into this yet, but I cannot begin to comprehend how Miami is a 4 point favorite against a Buffalo team that nearly made the playoffs last year. Sure, they beat up on the Raiders a bit, but to be honest, who hasn't? Hell, the Texans beat them earlier (though in the preseason), even though the Texans pulled their starters after the first drive and the Raiders kept theirs in all the way to the half. Miami is just not that good of a team. On the other side, I don't think that Buffalo is that bad of a team. Sure, their defense is performing very poorly compared to year's past, but really that's only on the run aspect of defense. Their offense should be able to at least keep pace with the measly Dolphins. They may not win this game, but these look like two evenly matched teams to me; the spread should be -.5 one way or the other, not -4. I'll take Buffalo with points when the odds are right:
Buffalo -4
1 unit
A teaser is a very helpful tool when betting a heavy favorite. This is where I'm putting my money into this week:
3 team, 9 point teaser (-110)
Indianapolis -6
New England -1
San Diego -2
11 units to win 10
Now, I know that the NFL tends to be volatile, but I don't really see Indy winning by less than a touchdown to the Titans. I mean come on now...this will end up being like the Colts/Texans game at Indy, minus the two fumbles on punt returns by the Colts.
New England should be pissed after their poor showing last week in KC; couple that with the fact that they are playing a JETS team that seems to have just lost the will to live and I really don't see how the Jets can hang here. Oh...and then throw in the fact that they're playing at NE.
The scary game here, I think will be the San Diego matchup. They're playing at home, which is good, because Drew Brees just seems to catch fire when playing at home. The downside is that defense of theirs: I keep remembering when they made Brooks Bollinger, the Jets third string QB, look like freaking John Elway, giving up a 20+ point lead in the fourth quarter to nearly lose the game. The Raiders offense is based on the pass, something which San Diego has had trouble defending this year: hopefully, they'll be able to bottle up that Raiders passing offense, because if they do, this game should be won handily. I think San Diego can win, but I'll be sweating it a bit.
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Anyway, that's what I think about this week's card: have fun
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Originally Posted by ensign_lee
