Hand vs Ultimate George

[Fnord]

GAMB00LPoker&SportsBook.com 100NL

I know who George is, he things I'm a kinda LAggy obnoxious fish.

A kinda bad players limps from EP
George limps from EMPish
A third fish comes along
I look down at T9 offs00t on the button and join the party.
SB completes, BB checks and we're off to the frop.

$6 in the pot.

T 9 4
SB checks, BB bets $2, EP calls, George raises to $10, folded to me and I raise to $30...

How'd I do? What's my plan for the rest of the hand?

[aislephive]

The only thing you can be worried about is a set, and with top two pair I'll pay the occasional set off.

[Fnord]

The only thing you can be worried about is a set, and with top two pair I'll pay the occasional set off.

I'd like to think I have enough information here to get away from a set sometimes...

[Miffed22001]

QJ 78 set

Ill take my odds against two of these the other is ugly and ill pay it most times
I make the raise then bet the turn hard if it doesnt complete a straight draw (in case he has that) I dont know how i'd play it if the straight draw completes. Other than that if he pushes the turn over our bet i think i have to call

as an after thought could he limp a big pair? JJ/QQ and like this flop?

I think he has QJ and is building the pot

[r8ed]

I think if he has a set, he's probably reraising you. If he has QJ or 87, then he calls (or folds). He'll probably fold anything else unless he has JJ - in which case he'll probably call (may reraise). If anything scary to him comes on the turn he's pushing a set. If he hits the high str8, he's betting 1/2 pot. If he hits the low str8, he's betting full pot. Otherwise he's betting 1/3 - 2/3 pot or checking a missed turn if it helps nobody else.

That's my guess.

[UG]

as an after thought could he limp a big pair? JJ/QQ and like this flop?

Bingo-Bango. I limped JJ from EP. JJ no good, Ultimate George folds.

This particular table had a bunch of calling stations at it, if I recall correctly. Instead of raising with JJ and then seeing a board with A/K/Q on it, I chose to limp it for set value. To my surprise a 10-high flop came about. The semi-mini-raise from BB states that he doesn't have a big hand or is drawing, along with the call from UTG. My raise announces with authority that I really like my hand and am going to make others pay to draw to a better hand.

Fnord's bet here threw me off a little bit. I had to really sit back and think for a minute before folding. With me showing so much strength there was absolutely no way he was betting that hard with TPTK. He let me know that he wasn't messing around. I figured him for a set or two-pair and folded (and rightfully so).

Good hand, Fnord. Now I wish I could remember your SN/avatar so I'd know who you were when you sat down at my table...

[Fnord]

I figured him for a set or two-pair and folded (and rightfully so).

My range here is wider than T9/TT/99/44

That being said, I should have raised pre-flop and stacked you.

[UG]

I figured him for a set or two-pair and folded (and rightfully so).

My range here is wider than T9/TT/99/44

That being said, I should have raised pre-flop and stacked you.

I know that your range is higher in that position...but with how the betting went down it was obvious (at least to me) that JJ was no good here. Not too many people are going to throw a stone-cold bluff out there with two semi-min-raisers and then a full pot sized bet. Just doesn't happen, at least not at NL100 where we play.

Now...If you were to have min-raised on the flop, or say, made it $20 to go...I probably would have punched back (I wouldn't have dropped the hammer, but I would have made it at lest $40 to go). From there you definitely could have stacked me depending on how you played it.

I'm glad you didn't stack me, though.

[Fnord]

Fnord's bet here threw me off a little bit. I had to really sit back and think for a minute before folding. With me showing so much strength there was absolutely no way he was betting that hard with TPTK. He let me know that he wasn't messing around.

My bet did exactly what I wanted it to do. I asked you if you wanted to play for stacks (since you KNOW this isn't a $20 decision) without committing myself to the hand.

Not too many people are going to throw a stone-cold bluff out there with two semi-min-raisers and then a full pot sized bet.

I wouldn't stone-cold bluff here either.

I'm glad you didn't stack me, though.

Yeah, looking back we both played this hand the way we were gonna play it. If you play for stacks here, I'm in pretty bad shape.

[arkana]

I don't like the flop raise Fnord, a preflop raise is also a bad idea IMO since there are a lot of calling stations (read little fold equity).

[Fnord]

I don't like the flop raise Fnord

I hated calling (dumb and dumber might come along for a reasonable price) and my hand is too good to fold. I know the player well enough to know how he's going to respond when tested for his stack and if I do this often enough someone might make a terrible mistake later.

a preflop raise is also a bad idea IMO since there are a lot of calling stations (read little fold equity).

I was kidding.

BTW, George said calling stations. I think that read is rather extreme. They were indeed loose/passive and call too much, but certainly not calling stations.

[arkana]

I hated calling (dumb and dumber might come along for a reasonable price) and my hand is too good to fold.

Calling is more risky but more +EV than raising provided you play the turn and river well IMO.

They were indeed loose/passive and call too much, but certainly not calling stations.

Do they call such big raises on the flop with tpwk, middle pair, straight draws? (Even though they are getting almost 3:1 most bad players just see the size of the bet, not the size of the bet relative to the pot)

[Fnord]

Calling is more risky but more +EV than raising provided you play the turn and river well IMO.

My best guess at George's range here:
ATs/KTs/QJs/QTs/JTs/T9s/JJ/TT/99/44

159,390 games 0.040 secs 3,984,750 games/sec

Board: Ts 9c 4h
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.2052 % 60.12% 00.09% { T9o }
Hand 2: 39.7948 % 39.71% 00.09% { JJ-99, 44, ATs, KTs, QTs+, JTs }


A broadway card on the turn would really suck.

Do they call such big raises on the flop with tpwk, middle pair, straight draws? (Even though they are getting almost 3:1 most bad players just see the size of the bet, not the size of the bet relative to the pot)

If they come in multi-way my SWAG is at least one of them calls the $8 and isn't making a mistake by calling the bet.

Finally:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

41,580 games 0.010 secs 4,158,000 games/sec

Board: Ts 9c 4h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 69.6970 % 69.70% 00.00% { T9o }
Hand 2: 30.3030 % 30.30% 00.00% { JJ }

George is folding away a lot of equity here. He's in a pretty No Limit sort of tough spot in that he doesn't know what all of his outs are and I just put him to a tough decision where I really wouldn't mind him making a marginally correct fold.

[arkana]

My best guess at Georges's range here:
ATs/KTs/QJs/QTs/JTs/JJ/TT/99/44

Ultimate George raises to $10, Fnord reraises to $30
ATs, KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, JJ: Ultimate George folds
JJ,TT,99,44: Ultimate George raises or calls

Do you see my point?

A broadway card on the turn would really suck.

If a broadway comes it doesn't necessarily hit him, you have position dont be so afraid of playing some poker!

[Fnord]

Ultimate George raises to $10, Fnord reraises to $30
ATs, KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, JJ: Ultimate George folds (he sometimes makes a mistake and calls here.)
TT,99,44: Ultimate George raises (I fold my 4 outer) or calls (check behind on turn for 2 shots at stacking him boat over boat)

A broadway card on the turn would really suck.

If a broadway comes it doesn't necessarily hit him, you have position dont be so afraid of playing some poker!

Nope, but kills my action if I'm still ahead.

[Demiparadigm]

I am more than capable of calling with TT here while typing something like "pot odds" in the chat box.

However, the chance of me limping TT preflop is pretty slim.

[Fnord]

I am more than capable of calling with TT here while typing something like "pot odds" in the chat box.

You're forgetting that I know he doesn't know me. Against an unknown in a fishy game where the regulars stack-off with pairs every other orbit we all 4-bet here a lot when we can destroy a pair.

[arkana]

I am more than capable of calling with TT here while typing something like "pot odds" in the chat box.

You're forgetting that I know he doesn't know me. Against an unknown in a fishy game where the regulars stack-off with pairs every other orbit we all 4-bet here a lot.

Ok I missed the part where you said he didn't know it was you, but unless guys on this site regularly 3-bet with top pair or less i still think calling is best. You know George isn't going to give you action on that raise with hands that you have beat and its very unlikely that he is on an open ended straight draw with such a big flop raise (especially with so many players still in the hand) and there isn't a flush draw, so if he doesn't have you beat with a set he is drawing to 6 outs at most I think.

[Rondavu]

I think the only mistake was the reraise amount. In this spot I min-reraise George to $20. This effectively makes him consider he's against AT while chasing out the fish draws.

I really don't like asking good players to play for stacks too soon when you're VERY sure you're ahead. It tips them off and allows them to get away. To me it's a leak. Smarter opponents need to be eased in. You can't disrespect an opponents intelligence if you know it to be good. This can cost you money. Now granted I don't give many players this kind of respect, but you knew it was George. The guy is killing the game. You knew you were probably ahead. Did you not think he would figure it out as well with a raise to $30 in back of him? If you're going to play for stacks with T9 anyway, then against a good intelligent player I would rather leave a doubt. You can't destack a good opponent hard and fast. You have to be more gentle.

By raising to $20 you chase out the draws and keep the smart player confident enough to continue in a situation where you're not afraid to show down at the end. That's my line.

[r8ed]

I think the only mistake was the reraise amount. In this spot I min-reraise George to $20. This effectively makes him consider he's against AT while chasing out the fish draws.

I really don't like asking good players to play for stacks too soon when you're VERY sure you're ahead. It tips them off and allows them to get away. To me it's a leak. Smarter opponents need to be eased in. You can't disrespect an opponents intelligence if you know it to be good. This can cost you money. Now granted I don't give many players this kind of respect, but you knew it was George. The guy is killing the game. You knew you were probably ahead. Did you not think he would figure it out as well with a raise to $30 in back of him? If you're going to play for stacks with T9 anyway, then against a good intelligent player I would rather leave a doubt. You can't destack a good opponent hard and fast. You have to be more gentle.

By raising to $20 you chase out the draws and keep the smart player confident enough to continue in a situation where you're not afraid to show down at the end. That's my line.

I'm not sure if Fnord necessarily WANTS a call here based on his assessment. His second pair could easily be counterfeited to a higher turn or river card if George's hand is in the range listed. Straight still exists and George has shown he's willing to play a set slower if he sees a big payday if he hits a boat. He's putting a major decision on George by raising that high.

[Rondavu]

I'm not sure if Fnord necessarily WANTS a call here based on his assessment. His second pair could easily be counterfeited to a higher turn or river card if George's hand is in the range listed. Straight still exists and George has shown he's willing to play a set slower if he sees a big payday if he hits a boat. He's putting a major decision on George by raising that high.

I understand what you're saying, and I agree that Fnord didn't mind a fold as he stated earlier, but in this situation I want a call. There's too good a chance my hand holds firm through showdown. Anything less than top two I take a different approach. George raised to $10 from $2. Is it likely he's on a straight draw? No it isn't. Therefore you have to feel you're against very few outs to beat top two.

Also, the thing about counterfeiting board pair outs, is that you can never be sure they're good outs when you hit them with a high pocket. If the board paired, Fnord could have pushed and got a fold against a better hand anyway.

[Silly String]

Even though they are getting almost 3:1 most bad players just see the size of the bet, not the size of the bet relative to the pot

Quoted for Truth

[Rondavu]

Quoted for Truth

Quoted for size

[dalecooper]

Quoted for Truth

Quoted for size

Quoted for redundancy.

(good thread, guys.)

[Fnord]

*Wonders if people are playing against JJ or George's range here*
*Wonders if people are considering that good players like George need to be shown a wide range of hands that all the look about the same up until he's the one pot-struck*
*Wonders how many people really want to play for stacks after a tight player limps from EP then bets strong*

[dalecooper]

Nope, I'm with you, Fnord. I like a healthy re-raise on that flop.

[UG]

*Wonders if people are playing against JJ or George's range here*
*Wonders if people are considering that good players like George need to be shown a wide range of hands that all the look about the same up until he's the one pot-struck*
*Wonders how many people really want to play for stacks after a tight player limps from EP then bets strong*

I agree with all three points.

With the known information you played this hand great. If I call, raise, or push on your big raise you know your two-pair could be in deep doo-doo (without help) at showdown. Especially because you're playing against me, you (I hope) know that I'm not complete donk. Anyway, you effectively stated then asked the question, "I got something real nice, how much you got?" I answered with, "Ehh, it's not THAT nice. You can have the pot."

Since I only had an overpair there was no way I could think it was good (without improvement) in this situation, so it was a clear fold for me. But that's me.

Fnord, if you were up against a random player would you have played this hand the exact same way? What if this random player 1) pushed, 2) raised to $50, or 3) cold-called (knowing he'd be ou of position the rest of the hand).

How would you have gone about the hand then?

[arkana]

Fnord on a rainbow board like this with a good player who limped in EP it is a WA/WB situation and I know you know what to do in situations like these. Raising isnt wrong but it sure isnt optimal. If you didnt have position, the board was more coordinated or the opponent will call with weaker hands then you can raise but that is not the case.

[Pelion]

it is a WA/WB situation

a what?

[arkana]

You are either way ahead or way behind (either you have two pair vs overpair\top pair or you have two pair vs set). This hand is probably not the best example but i think the general principle holds.

[johnny_fish]

Raising isnt wrong but it sure isnt optimal.

Calling is? I don't see why.

[arkana]

Because Ultimate George will fold everything that Fnord is beating to that raise. Calling and raising the turn wins you more against AT,KT,JJ etc and loses the same against a set.

[Rondavu]

*Wonders how many people really want to play for stacks after a tight player limps from EP then bets strong*

Are you really afraid of a set here? You have top two pair, and sets usually delay the punch on a relatively harmless board like this. I just can't see how you feel your hand may be bad against anybody (including george) in this spot. I mean if you sense a strangely played set then raise to $30 by all means, but it just looks scared to me. Personally, I thank the poker gods for giving me a too quickly played, non set read on the flop out of george. I rule out a set and play to destack with my percieved best hand unless he punches all in after my enticing flop raise. Then I still might.

[UG]

Because Ultimate George will fold everything that Fnord is beating to that raise. Calling and raising the turn wins you more against AT,KT,JJ etc and loses the same against a set.

The key point behind Fnord's raise is he finds out exactly where he stands EARLY rather than later in the hand. He gained valuable information with this bet. If I come over the top of him right here two-pair is probably no good and he can fold (or play for stacks, but I doubt he'd do that).

With this bet he also pushes the two other retards out of the hand that were (most likely) drawing to a straight, or some sort of better two-pair (if they draw out). If he only cold calls, well, now these two players have pot odds to call. If a J, Q, or K falls it could realistically create a straight for somebody (or, a higher two-pair). Now Fnord has to bet BIGGER to find out where he's at in the hand, thus pot-committing himself on later streets.

You need to step back and "listen" to what the bets are saying.

BB: "I like my hand, maybe I paired up or have a strong draw, I will bet half the pot. Raise $2."

UTG: "I like my hand too, I also paired up or have a strong draw to a straight. $2 isn't so bad, I call."

UltimateGeorge: "I have a *real* hand here, boys. I'm going to make you two dipshits make a bad decision if you decide to call me, PLUS I am going to get the button to fold because because of the strength that I have shown."

Fnord: "I have a VERY strong hand, Mr. UltimateGeorge. So strong, in fact, that I do not want somebody else to come along for the ride to draw to a better hand. If they play with us now then they have something ridiculously strong, I don't have to lose my entire stack here. Mr. Ultimate George, again, I have a VERY strong hand here. What do you think about that?"

BB: "Umm, my pair/draw is no good, I fold."

UTG: "Yup, I'm outta here too. Fold."

Ultimate George: "Uhh, holy shit. My hand isn't THAT strong, wow. I don't want to play for stacks here. Mr. Fnord, you win sir."

Arkana, your thoughts, IMO, are wrong (and I think it's because you know what I have). Pretend that you don't. If he calls in this situation maybe the two other dipshits get to draw (*with odds*) to something bigger. Maybe they don't. Either way, if a rag hits the board and our two dipshits check (or maybe they folded on the flop), I will most likely bet hard. How would Fnord feel about his hand then? He won't know what to feel because he would have gained absolutely no information from my hand on the flop! Having no information he would have to commit a LOT more on the turn (to "know where he's at"). So much more that he could possibly be pot committed, forcing him to play for stacks here. If I do have a set here, he busts out.

He's risking $30 here to find out "where he's at" so he doesn't have to risk more than that on later streets. He's also putting in money when he has the best of it (he thinks, and rightfully so).

A wise man named -rilla once said, "Two-pair does not give you a license to print money." He's protecting a very strong hand here, and hand that can be pretty darn vulnerable, given what I could POSSIBLY have (he doesn't know I have an over pair). Two pair with two cards to come is a dangerous hand to let other people hang around against...

Make sense?

[dalecooper]

I may be wrong here, but I think Fnord's bet is more about protecting his hand than anything else. Top two pair is nice but against a guy sending out a large raise, and with that particular board (two high/middle cards, nine and ten) your equity edge is probably not that big. In limit it's all well and good to go to showdown every time you have an edge, but in no limit when you're just a 60-40 or 65-35 favorite, you don't really WANT people hanging around. I rarely slowplay two pair for this reason. If I get paid big, I want it to be because the other guy dumped a bunch of chips in on the flop when he shouldn't have, not because I slowplayed and my hand held up. Like Fnord said, basically any overcard would suck on that flop, based on opponent's range of hands. If you knew for sure he had an overpair, you would have a better argument for slowplaying a bit, but you still have to be cognizant of the five out draw (and probably eight after the turn, assuming it doesn't pair the board).

[arkana]

Fundemental Theorom of Poker:

Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.

Fnord basically turned his cards face up (the important thing is he knew the opponent, vs your avg player this is most likely a raise since they will give you action with weaker hands).

All the arguments against calling boils down to protecting a vulnerable hand. Two pair vs a pair and overcard or an overpair is not that vulnerable... If you are gonna fold everytime a scare card hits the board then go ahead and raise, but if you feel you are capable of playing some poker on the turn and river then a call is better.

EDIT: depending on how likely it is that someone else will call too a raise might be better, i dont know this game but my feeling is you wont see another call that often.

[Demiparadigm]

The difference with this hand that separates it from the fundamental theorem of poker, is it multiway aspect.
If Fnord calls, and lets the other 2 players in with draws, they are making a correct call based on pot odds.
When he raises, he forces them to fold or make an incorrect call.
In a multiway pot, it is often better to get your opponents to make an easy fold than a marginal call... and hope they maybe make a bad call in the process.

[UG]

The difference with this hand that separates it from the fundamental theorem of poker, is it multiway aspect.
If Fnord calls, and lets the other 2 players in with draws, they are making a correct call based on pot odds.
When he raises, he forces them to fold or make an incorrect call.
In a multiway pot, it is often better to get your opponents to make an easy fold than a marginal call... and hope they maybe make a bad call in the process.

Plus, it's against me. That's got to count for something (and I'm being serious here). I'm not your typical donk super-donk that's usually found in this game. Not saying it's impossible for me to make a mistake by any means, but it's less likely than your average player at this table and at these stakes.

[Fnord]

Giving correct odds to suck-out is a worse FToP mistake than putting someone to a correct fold in a non-trival pot (the action in front built just enough of a pot to be worth winning.) When you bet someone off a hand in NLHE you gain Sklansky $$$ for all the equity you bet them off of. Also, I'm a firm believer in fast play and making raises that don't pot-commit me but put my opponents into spots where they feel pot committed.

By playing top two like this I'm covering for the times I make the same move with both weaker and stronger holdings. If I slap you around enough, you're gonna look me up and I'm going to try to manipulate my gear shifting such that you when you do play for stacks I will most likely have the best of it.

Like Fnord said, basically any overcard would suck on that flop, based on opponent's range of hands.

Not so much because I might have gotten sucked out on. It also kills my action from worse hands like JJ which will run scared if I'm still showing strength after an A-Q turns.

You are either way ahead or way behind (either you have two pair vs overpair\top pair or you have two pair vs set). This hand is probably not the best example but i think the general principle holds.

Way ahead/behind applies when it's heads-up and you put your opponent on 3 or fewer outs if you're ahead in the hand.

For example:
AA on a J55 rainbow board.

[arkana]

You arent giving the third guy correct odds to suck out with, 3:1 means he needs 11 outs to get correct odds to hit on the turn. What hand has 11 outs on that board? Getting a second caller may decrease your odds of winning the hand but it also increases the pots the times that you do win.

HU this is definitely a call because a raise only gets action from hands that beat you. Fnord where does the magical 3 outs number come from? I admit its probably not the best example of WA/WB but I was trying to make the point that in this situation you will either be up against a set which has you in real bad shape or against a hand that you are ahead of that only has 6 outs at most. Sure he will hit one of his 6 outs about 12% of the time on the turn, but the other 88% of the time you can win more money from him on the turn. Calling and raising the turn wins you more from the hands that you are ahead of and loses the same against hands that have you beat. Opponents who always raise good hands on a board like that are very predictable.

If George gives up with JJ everytime a A-Q comes on the turn then you should definitely be calling the flop against him a lot more, I doubt that this is the case though.

[arkana]

By playing top two like this I'm covering for the times I make the same move with both weaker and stronger holdings. If I slap you around enough, you're gonna look me up and I'm going to try to manipulate my gear shifting such that you when you do play for stacks I will most likely have the best of it.

Fair enough, but you never stated that you raise here with a wide range.

EDIT: Ok sorry you actually did, i forgot that you said this:

I know the player well enough to know how he's going to respond when tested for his stack and if I do this often enough someone might make a terrible mistake later.

But if we take this hand on its own and assume UG doesnt have a history with you before this hand calling will maximise your EV in this hand.

[Rondavu]

By playing top two like this I'm covering for the times I make the same move with both weaker and stronger holdings. If I slap you around enough, you're gonna look me up and I'm going to try to manipulate my gear shifting such that you when you do play for stacks I will most likely have the best of it.

I'm actually a huge fan of this thought process. If you want to give up some value in an individual hand to garnish an overall trend towards the tilt game, then I'm ok with that. I just felt like you could have destacked George here, and your tilt method isn't likely to work on a player of his calaber in the long run anyway. I may be more inclined to lean towards deep for the sake of deep trend against someone I can tilt.

[Fnord]

I just felt like you could have destacked George here

What range do you put George on? Do you want to play for stacks against that range in an unraised pot? Remember, he's playing JJ-22 for a limp...

[Rondavu]

I just felt like you could have destacked George here

What range do you put George on? Do you want to play for stacks against that range in an unraised pot? Remember, he's playing JJ-22 for a limp...

The range I put an unknown player on with this action is...

AA KK QQ JJ AT KT QT 94 T4. The highest pockets are unlikely but possible. I disregard TT 99 44 based on action that moves too quick. I might put this player on it later if they prove capable of acting this way with the hands that beat me.

I'm gonna be completely honest. I put him on JJ before he said he had it. The reason being I read a post he made about talking to ilikeaces, and how aces told him to limp 22-JJ for set value. I read that a while ago. It was the most logical hand he could have in my mind given the preflop and postflop action with my read. I am definately biased in the fact that I knew beforehand what he was capable of limping.

Let's assume for the sake of discussion however that I didn't have that read. In that case I would put him on a good ten that knows the early bettor to be weak, and feels his AT or KT is best. He raised from $2 to $10. What that tells me is he feels he has the best hand now, but he'd rather not see 4th and 5th. That screams ten nice kicker in my mind. I don't feel a set plays this way on that board. I have to feel way ahead with top two here. I try to destack and if the board ends up slamming me than so be it against a hand with minimal outs.

The weird thing about this hand is it would be exactly correct to go deep quick on that board against most players because your opponent is at a confidence peak with top pair tens good kicker on the flop in most cases.

[Rondavu]

Arkana, you can't smooth call in that spot. It's just out of the question. You can't price in draws when you have a confident enough opponent to built a pot with who is defining their hand with you. At that point it becomes VERY important to get the chasers evicted.

[Fnord]

The range I put an unknown player on with this action is...

He's not unknown.

I disregard TT 99 44 based on action that moves too quick.

Huh?!? He's a strong enough player to play a set really fast here.

I'm gonna be completely honest. I put him on JJ before he said he had it. The reason being I read a post he made about talking to ilikeaces, and how aces told him to limp 22-JJ for set value

How would you expect him to play a set?

I don't feel a set plays this way on that board.

I wonder how often my opponents say stuff like this. "He can't have XX because he's played the entire hand strong and taken down the last Y pots he's played via c-bets." "No way he can expect me to call here."

[Rondavu]

Some players play sets this way, and maybe you do to, but you should know more than anybody that this is a game of odds and likelyhoods. If someone hasn't shown a fast trend in previous action, you should assume a typically played set. If I was playing against you, and I saw a regular trend of deep betting, I would be more inclined to believe a quickly played set. Most don't take this line however.

[Rondavu]

I don't feel a set plays this way on that board.

I wonder how often my opponents say stuff like this. "He can't have XX because he's played the entire hand strong and taken down the last Y pots he's played via c-bets." "No way he can expect me to call here."

Well I don't know how well this opponent is crafting his reads, but I trust mine until it fails, and then I make a new one. You have to understand you're an exceptionally deceptive player.