Fold Equity

[Rondavu]

Home game 4 handed SnG tournament. Starting Stacks 1000. I have high stack about 1600. My image is slightly LAG, but I haven't gone deep without something special yet. Blinds are at 25/50. Everyone limps and I raise to 150 with K9 suited on the button. Everyone calls. Pot 600. Flop comes out 562 rainbow. TAG, intelligent, rather weak tight SB with 800 chips left leads out for 300. Other two people fold and I push without any sign of hesitation. Thoughts?

[DaHorror]

I would say that there are two problems you face here:

(1) He only has 500 chips left and isn't all that likely to fold here unless he's really got nothing or a pretty weak hand and you really scare him.

(2) What do you put him on? Half a pot bet is confusing...is that a draw (78/74)? A weak overpair like 77-TT? A pair on the board (67/45)? Or is it the weak when strong trips play?
What types of hands has he lead out with before?

If he's TAG and weak-tight and he's leading out it's most likely a mid-ranged overpair - which he may be willing to ditch if you have convinced him with your (seems effective) move, a slowplayed (preflop) high overpair, or trips in which case you are screwed with few outs.

In general I like it. You either take down a nice pot as he folds, suckout and take a really nice pot and take down a player, or you lose a good chunk of your stack but further enhance your LAG image and get a read on that player for future hands.

[BankItDrew]

What is his facial expresion when he made the bet? Facial expressions tell all.

[Rondavu]

If he's TAG and weak-tight and he's leading out it's most likely a mid-ranged overpair - which he may be willing to ditch

Yahtzee. I was almost certain it was what he had. Having 500 chips left wasn't a factor, because it was enough to work with if he wanted to get away. Also, if he called me and I was right, I had two likely overcards and 650 left if I lost. If I won I would be at 3000 with one less player and a huge stack 3 handed with only 4000 in play. If he folds I have 2500 out of 4000 4 handed, which is nearly as powerful.

[Rondavu]

What is his facial expresion when he made the bet? Facial expressions tell all.

I didn't read a large amount of confidence from him. This definately factored into the move, and helped me put him on a mid pair.

[Rondavu]

RESULTS:

Player was noticeably distraught by my quick push. He said "Damn it, I feel like I'm ahead here" and grumbled a couple curses. He thought about it for a long minute and mucked 88. I showed him K9, and he tilted on second pair shortly thereafter. My leverage for the tournament peaked with so many chips and I took it down fairly quick.