Deal or No Deal:

[sykotik489]

I think I have a new favorite game show. It's math based (specifically odds) and instinct/gut based as well.

Great stuff earlier

Chick was down to 4 cases, 3 on the board 1 in her possession.

1 case had 1 million in it the others 5k or less.

They offered her 201,000 to quit. What would you do?

By my estimation you have about a 72% chance of getting a bigger offer next time. Three out of 4 times you will not have the 1M in your case, so you have a 66% chance of opening a case that has a low amount in it, therefore raising your "offer". 1 time out of 4 you have a 100% chance of raising your offer, since you already have the million in your case.

66*66*66*100 should be around 72% correct?

[Pelion]

Its a dumb show. EV wise it is ALWAYS correct to play to the end because you are always being offered lower than your expectation value. If you consider utility aswell then it is sometimes correct to accept offers lower than your expectation value but that just depends on how much you need the money... and how much of it you need.
If 200k will change your life then take it because you will be sick if you dont and you go home with 50p.
If you are already a billionaire then play to the end regardless.

[tom]

I definately was doing some random surfing and started watching it and thought it was quality stuff too.

I would love to gamble for it but if I had the choice I'd take the money at that point.

[sykotik489]

Actually I'm pretty sure they offer you an amount that is precisely designed to make it moot mathematically. Unless you take the odds of raising the offer on your next turn. If you are just going by whats in your case then it's always going to be a fairly even proposition. But if you take into account your 70% chance of making an extra 100,000 then it might be more profitable over the long run to go just one more, your next offer would be around 330,000


What would be really interesting is if someone got to the end, with 500k and 1M still on the board. They would offer you 750k to walk. What would you do?

I take my shot, because I am going home happy with 500k.

[Iconoclastic]

The correct strategy in my opinion for the average person is to take the money whenever it goes over $150,000 or so. That's like several years of work for God's sake! It's a lot easier to earn money when you have money, and with a sound financial plan that 150k will turn into a million soon enough. And you can live lavishly in the mean time. The difference between 10k and 150k is much larger than the difference between 150k and 290k.

[FyrFytr998]

Same here. Was channel surfing and the wife and I were instantly hooked. I immediately made a remark to her that a good poker player would know the odds in every situation. And told her that I wasn't one of those good players, lol.

For me, I'm taking any offer above 150k dependent on how many big numbers are still left in the right side column.

I can't believe the bozo who turned down 250k the other day.

[midas06]

They always make it =EV.

[sykotik489]

I agree that they always make it =EV, but do you not think it may be worth the risk. To say...give up 201,000 for a 72% chance of getting at least 330k, which would have been the next offer if she didn't hit the case with the million in it?

This is a fucking awesome show to watch (we have it in Britain too).

It proves that people are retards.

[xBULLETTSx]

Give me 10K and Im gone.....lol

[Pelion]

They always make it =EV.

They usually offer a little less than the average. . . at least in the UK version

They always make it =EV.

They usually offer a little less than the average. . . at least in the UK version

Yeah, the banker always makes it slightly +EV to gamb00l.

[Fnord]

If 200k would have a big positive impact on your life and 5k wouldn't, it's a no-brainer to take the deal if it's anywhere near close.

However, if I could play this game a large number of times or sell a stake in my proposition, the quetion the OP brings up has more merit.

[Miffed22001]

no need to gambool when he offers u like 15k plus is there?
anything less and its an easy gambOOl!

[Anonymous]

To be honest I think the UK version is the best, simply because it has Noel Edmonds in it. Noel is my God!

Seriously though it can be great fun to watch, and I shall be live in January (hopefully)!

[Muxy]

only thing could make Deal or No Deal any better is Tony Danza