Basic reads 101

[michael1123]

#Game No : 3129735476
***** Hand History for Game 3129735476 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $1000 Buy-in + $65 Entry Fee Trny:17906874 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Friday, December 02, 01:01:24 EDT 2005
Table Step 5 #1068697 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: ezrau ( $2245 )
Seat 2: SassyPants34 ( $850 )
Seat 3: billandsarah ( $795 )
Seat 5: splittle ( $1540 )
Seat 6: AAirline ( $865 )
Seat 7: michael1123 ( $690 )
Seat 9: bobringer ( $1340 )
Seat 10: SirNicolas ( $1675 )
Trny:17906874 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to michael1123 [ Ts Js ]
bobringer raises [100]. (50 more, to a 100 total - a minraise)
SirNicolas folds.
ezrau folds.
SassyPants34 folds.
billandsarah folds.
splittle folds.
AAirline folds.
michael1123 calls [50].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Td, Jd, Qc ]
michael1123 checks.
bobringer checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
michael1123 checks.
bobringer checks.
** Dealing River ** [ 5s ]
michael1123 bets [100].
bobringer raises [300]. (200 more)

I have no prior read on this guy, which in this game probably means he's tight passive.

What do you put him on?

Think about this (and reply with your answer if you want) before reading other replies to do a basic test of your standard reading ability (reads that don't require prior experience with your opponent).

{This post has been removed}

[michael1123]

Just to make it clear, the point of this isn't deciding whether I should call or not. The point is to try and put him on a hand.

Here I got a strong read for a specific holding he had, and then acted based on that.

[Andy Holt]

This guy probably won his way into Step 5 and is playing just to make 4th. With that in mind, he doesn't feel safe knowing that everyone at this table can outplay him. The UTG minraise suggests scared money, why not a 3x raise?

He might have been trying a quick survey of the table with a semi-decent hand like AQ, and if reraised he would fold gingerly. He minraises almost expecting a reraise, so he's not fearless (which suggests AA, KK, QQ or possibly AK). AA or KK, he would raise more I think, because he's playing with scared money and doesn't want any postflop action where he might have to fold out of a big pot.

We can't rule out AK, but I really think he's holding AQ or AJ and thinks your river bet is an attempt to buy HIS rightfully earned pot. So he raises after no prior postflop action. I think either he was too nervous to bet his set or straight, or too nervous to raise more preflop with AQ or AJ or another similar hand. With this guy being tight-passive, I would lean more on the AQ side simply because he would want to take the pot right away on the flop and be done with it had he made his hand. After all, you could be drawing to a FLUSH!!!

Anyway, that's my jumbled 3:30 AM thought process.

He has AQ.

[ChrisBCritter]

I'll take a shot. Single hand reads are not my speciality, but let's try it out.

Min raise 8-handed tells me probably no pocket pair, but could be a lame attempt at blind stealing with Axs. At this point I could see him even doing this with AK, BUT....

Flop Check-behind with a 2-suited board says that he doesn't have AK for the straight (unless he has the Flush draw also...doubtful), he would've HAD to bet out here. So would AQo, KQo.

Turn Check-behind on that scary 9. Hmm, I think that the normal person with Kx here would bet out, So I don't put him there at all.

River. 100 into a 250 pot, villian raises to pot(basically). He viewed your bet as a weak steal attempt, and he has mid-pair on this relatively scary board. He must feel that you don't have a straight or a queen, and might've hung on with the flush draw which missed. So either A X or AJo are my guesses.

My final answer is AJo. Call.

[Pingviini]

Either slowplayed AK or more likely a mid high pair like 77. well, even Axs with a busted flush draw is a possiblity and give your actions here he has to put you on a bluff.. Given _your_ actions here I will definitely call.

[Fnord]

88/AK but I really think 88. The min-raise was an attempt to freeze up anyone thinking of opening the pot light and blow him off seeing a flop.

Fold

[dalai007]

Why not Ill give this a shot. Not having read any other replies: My read is ep min raise = wants action. High pp. Checks to the river then raises with that board I put him on KK.

[Gareth]

my guess is Mid Pocket Pair - looks like it could be 88.

[konahead]

Well, he's either afraid to bet that flop or not afraid of the flop, probably the latter. I'd say he has AK diamonds and figures he'll only get paid if he lets you bet first.

AK diamonds is my final answer.

[PO$$E$$ED]

AK, maybe KK

[michael1123]

Fnord's a limit player and he can read NL this well. I want to have his babies. ... Ahem ...

Ok, in a way this is a bit of a cop out, as I actually didn't see his hand because I folded. But before folding I was a bit confused by the action, and then after thinking it over again it clicked with me and I was very confident in my read of what he had.

Just from the preflop action, we can maybe rule out AJ and DEFINITELY Ax with a flush draw. Guys like this typically don't minraise hands like that UTG. Second, multiple people have mentioned that maybe he had a busted flush draw, and I just don't get the reasoning. He checked the flop and turn without betting his draw, and then after missing it he reraises with 4 to a straight on the board? That'd be pretty crazy ... Since he never bet or even called a bet post flop, it doesn't make sense to assume he had a draw.

I think we can also rule out AQ pretty quickly. Why wouldn't AQ bet that flop? Tight passive players, especially scared ones, are not going to slowplay TPTK on a draw heavy board. And then again, why check the flop but raise the river? Its either call (hoping its a bluff) or fold to the river bet. Same action with a set, there's no better hand you're bluffing out and no worse hand that's calling your raise.

Ok, now I'll go through my thought process on the hand. Minraise UTG, I'm thinking a big hand but I have implied odds and call. I assume I probably have the best hand on the flop and will happily check raise all in with my stack, but he checks.

The turn obviously scares me, and there's no need to bet here as I'll only get called by a better hand. I check and he checks behind me. At the river I'm thinking I probably have the best hand, and I still think its possible he has AA (although the flop check would be weird), or maybe another pair, so I make a small bet that I think he could think was a bluff and call, but he raises? Hmm? Instantly I'm thinking he must have a straight to raise here (there are a hell of a lot better places to bluff, and I'd probably play a K and an 8 the same way), but what was with all the checking?

You'd have to think that he'd bet KQ or KK on the flop, although these were possible. 88 makes sense at the flop and turn, but why raise the river? I'm only calling with a K or an 8, so its a losing raise. Plus, this guy is probably playing very cautious, and he doesn't want to pay off a K with an 8 with more chips when he could've just called.

Then it clicks. AK! He's slowplaying on the flop, and even cautious high buyin players are not so terrified of a possible flush draw with the nuts that they feel like they have to bet. With my short stack, he just wants the best chance to get my chips in on the hand. The turn looks good for him, but with my second check he's probably pretty sure that I have neither a straight or a flush daw. Betting will just scare me out. On the river he finally gets a bet from me, and then of course raises with the nuts.

This is the only possible hand that makes complete sense, given this players play style, and this is how I get a lot of strong reads. I honestly would've comfortably folded an 8 here, even to the small raise (and especially since me having an 8 makes 88 less likely). With a K, I have to call (not raise) and hope its a split, but I could be relatively certain that he had at least a K.

After posting the hand and thinking about it a bit more, I also thought that AK of diamonds made even more sense. But unlike reads like the AK read, I've never actually tried to put a player on specific cards of a specific suit (just either specific cards or a general flush draw), so I really don't have confidence in being able to read it that in depth. Plus, I still think that AKo makes far more sense than any other hand.

So yeah ... I don't have a true answer for you guys. But personally, I feel that anyone that thought that AK was very likely was definitely reading the hand well. People that thought I was ahead should probably think about it a bit more carefully before making calls like that against tight passive players.

Good attempt by all. Thinking through hands like this is vital to getting to the next level of NL holdem ability.

[Fnord]

You'd have to think that he'd bet KQ or KK on the flop, although these were possible. 88 makes sense at the flop and turn, but why raise the river? I'm only calling with a K or an 8, so its a losing raise. Plus, this guy is probably playing very cautious, and he doesn't want to pay off a K with an 8 with more chips when he could've just called.

Given the action he thinks an 8 is good and you're under-estimating how often that bet gets called at the lower levels (a lot.) Just look at all the responses by FTR members (figure top 25%ish of players) who said call. I just think you're not accustomed to being called (and re-raised in desperation) by bluff-catcher & hopeless hands as is the case down a few levels from where you're playing.

[michael1123]

I'm very use to guys calling, trying to catch bluffs. That's typical in high buyin games, just at much smarter times, and that's the reason I value bet the river, because it looked like a bluff that could possibly be picked off by calling.

However, even in $100 SNGs, guys aren't raising bets like these with an 8. In limit, this type of raise may make sense (especially to a fish who doesn't care much since worst case scenario they're only losing 2 big bets by raising and then being reraised) . It doesn't in NL, when that reraise can cost you the pot or your stack if they come right back over the top of you. Its standard NL play at any semi-high buyin game to just call with an 8 here, and these step winners basically play by the book, word for word.

[dsaxton]

You could also probably reason from the river raise that he has at least a king, and then you can consider what hands containing a K a typical player would raise preflop in first position, but opt not to bet on the flop. K-Q, K-K and A-K are really the only hands that meet the first criterion, and K-Q and K-K are unlikely, since almost any typical player would bet the flop with these hands, but many may choose to slow-play A-K after flopping the nut straight.

[michael1123]

Yeah ... that's basically what I did. However, its a tad more complex than that, as while the river raise alone looks like a K, if I thought through the possible Ks and wasn't able to come up with one that made sense, I'd have to assume that there was a very good chance that this was a bluff and therefore I'd have pot odds to call. Since the river raise surprised me, it sent me into this line of thought and eventually led me to making this thread. If for some reason AK was impossible in this spot, I would've called, as no other hand made enough sense. If a good / tight player makes a play that makes absolutely no sense, its typically an ill-advised bluff.

There's one key thing I realized I forgot to mention when looking over this thread again. It probably was the biggest thing that the people who said I should call were missing. He minraised from UTG and I called in the BB. These preflop positions are vital things to consider post flop, and not just considering what he'd minraise UTG.

The part that people are missing is that I only had to call a minraise in the BB, so my possible range of hands is very wide, and he knows this. If he had 88 or any other under pair, after raising UTG, why on earth would he check this flop? This is a scary flop after a scary raise from a scary position (and a completely non-scary BB pot odds call). There's no better time to continuation bet.

Immediately when he checks behind me I was putting him on either AA or a set because of the lack of a continuation bet (I hadn't considered AK yet) . AA seemed more likely based on the preflop action, and both seemed a bit weird to be checking on the draw heavy flop, but again I just called a minraise on the BB so there's no reason to think that I have high cards that hit the flop or made a good draw. The turn check is pretty standard with these hands. This is why the river raise surprised me. He wouldn't raise with AA or a set here, its an obvious place to call.

Literally, its what I think he thinks I think he has. I know it sounds ridiculous, but there's actual truth in that. He knows I'm putting him on a big hand after raising UTG and he has no reason to assume that I have a good hand preflop. The flop is big and he doesn't bet. That doesn't make sense if he has a weak hand, as long as he's able to think on the level of considering what I'm putting him on (he thinks I think), and that's pretty standard for high buyin game players.

Not as interesting or as important, I also noticed that AK of clubs is just as likely as AK of diamonds, as the flop check doesn't indicate that he probably had a flush draw as well, but the turn check does (a bit weird time to slowplay without it - but again understandable with AKo if he's putting me on absolutely nothing).

Sorry for the bump, just thought I should add this new stuff to the thread. Food for thought.

[littlewashu]

i got this pegged as having unpaired high cards the checks in this hand scream that and the fact that he raised on the river should
confirm it. You might have been better off jamming the pot after the flop tho

[michael1123]

Haha, its a QJT flop. There are no "unpaired high cards" possible, unless you count the nut straight as that.

[johnny_fish]

Interesting thread. I assume that raising with an 8/set/TP doesn't happen at your level, so it's at least a K. KQ/KK would definitely bet the flop, so AK is most probable. Although it's always possible that he read you like a book and/or thought you couldn't call this with your small stack and it was a bluff with 77/66 Notice he could still fold to a reraise AI with this 300-raise..

Would you bet the flop if you had a bigger stack (>1000-1500)?.