Another QQ hand

[Lukie]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB ($17.45)
BB ($69.60)
UTG ($85.60)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($95)
MP2 ($98.50)
Hero ($201.95)
Button ($34.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4, Button calls $4, 2 folds, UTG+1 raises to $15, Hero calls $11, Button folds.

Flop: ($35.50) 6, 2, 4 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $25

............ my line?

[Fnord]

What'cha know about him?

27,720 games 0.031 secs 894,193 games/sec

Board: 6c 2s 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.5314 % 45.73% 00.80% { QdQs }
Hand 2: 53.4686 % 52.67% 00.80% { KK+, AKs, AKo }

[Fnord]

I like this QQ hand better

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB =(Lukie) ($100)
UTG ($94.60)
MP ($100.35)
Fnord ($102.60)
Button ($29.70)
SB ($139)

Preflop: Fnord is CO with 9, 9.
1 fold, MP calls $1, Fnord raises to $4, 2 folds, BB (Lukie) raises to $15, MP folds, Fnord calls $11.

Flop: ($31.50) 9, 6, 3 (2 players)
Lukie bets $18, Fnord calls $18.

Turn: ($67.50) J (2 players)
Lukie checks, Fnord bets $20, Lukie raises to $67, Fnord calls $47.

River: ($201.50) 4 (2 players)

Final Pot: $201.50

Results in white below:
Lukie has Qs Qd (one pair, queens).
Fnord has 9c 9s (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: Fnord wins $201.50.

[Lukie]

What'cha know about him?

27,720 games 0.031 secs 894,193 games/sec

Board: 6c 2s 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.5314 % 45.73% 00.80% { QdQs }
Hand 2: 53.4686 % 52.67% 00.80% { KK+, AKs, AKo }

He didn't get involved in many pots, havn't seen too many big bets from him. I was pretty confident he had KK/AA. Most opponents I play with aren't capable of playing like this with AK, but I could be wrong here of course.

I mucked on the flop. In this case, wouldn't it just be better to fold to the 2-bet preflop? I think too much of my stack is going in for it to be +EV to flop a set. *AHEM*.. reminds me of another hand..............

which was brutal by the way . Here's my thinking in the 999 > QQ hand. I just sat down at two tables you are playing. I've made posts in the past that refered to my horrible table image, and you do the same about playing laggy (late position), having a bad image, etc. You raise my BB on one table, I fold. You raise my BB on this table, and I jack it up pretty big preflop. You hold 99 and you have to think it's a resteal or I'm holding some shit. Flop comes rags and you HAVE to put me on overcards and it looks like I'm throwing out a normal (but expensive) c-bet. Turn comes another rag (for the situation), and it just looks like I'm checking, giving up the hand, and you throw out a steal. I come over the top for the rest of my stack and you call. At that point I knew I was beat, thinking KK/AA or maybe a set. NH sir.

It's all good though, today I destacked that fool at your table with your same pocket 9's at NL200 6 max...

[IowaSkinsFan]

You guys seem set on AA, KK, AKs, but I wouldn't be quick to assume that. It looks to me like JJ or TT. I know he limped raised from UTG+1 but other than that he raises you about 4x your raise preflop, then really makes a protecting flop bet. It smells to me like a low overpair like JJ or TT. I think it's reasonably for him to think he is ahead. You raised standard from mp and did not reraise him. On the flop you could easily put him on a very strong hand and you did. So a strong bet will probably get a fold. There's no reason he'd put you on QQ. And maybe he limp raises JJ and TT so he gets more respect with AA/KK.
Is there some flaw in this reasoning?