GIANT downswing leads to retarded hand post

[NLHE lahooozaher]

Overall at the NL$100 I have had a 17k hand breakeven(counting the past 3 days) stretch now but it has had it's sharp ups and downs. But in the past three days or 3,927 hands I've dropped 7 buyins. Now this is cause for concern but as far as I'm concerned I'm playing fine losing to miracle 2 outers and inside straight draws that are all in before the river and they're always hitting the river, so really there's nothing I can do but try to ride it out. Typically I feel like the hand I'm about to post is a waste of time because I hate hearing people whine about losing to set over set but I do have a real question about it and I'm losing lots of confidence that this will actually turn around.

Party NL$100, 10handed, BB has $100.45, MP has $97 and I have them covered.
BB is 18/6 after 565 hands, MP is an unknown at the time.

I limp UTG w/33, a couple folds, MP player limps, folds to the blinds, sb folds, BB raises to $5, I call as does MP

Flop is 3c 4c Qs
BB bets $15, I raise to $40, MP raises to $65, BB pushes....
Usually I just say "I have a set and if somebody else has a set so be it." I usually never ever consider folding, should I in this hand? Or is it likely enough that the BB has AA and MP has a hand like KQcc?

Sorry in advance for the stupid question. Of course being results orientated MP had 44 and the BB had QQ.

[AHiltz]

The chances of someone having a set while you do on the flop is SLIM. Chances are they are on a club or straight draw, AQ, AA, or KK. You have a 30% chance to boat even if they catch the flush or straight.

I get my money in here.

[midas06]

MP having 44 is not as uncommon as you would think. He limp/called a raise pf. This usually is a small/medium PP. Note that Hero did the exact same pf.


Also, limping UTG is usually a bad thing.

[NLHE lahooozaher]

The chances of someone having a set while you do on the flop is SLIM.

I've heard it's one in 8k hands, but in my past 6k hands of this down swing I've had it 5 times. That hand, 22 to AA in an unraised pot, 99 to KK on a KK9 flop, 66 to TT on a 6Tx flop, and JJ to QQ on a JQx flop. So that was another motivation for posting this, I just seem to lose to it so much and I shouldn't be but when I do I lose alot.

I wish I had my read of MP then that I do now. Over 200 hands and he plays 3.99/.75, awful player.

[nutsinho]

One should rarely consider how unlikely an event it is in general but instead how likely it is given the information at hand. If MP pushes, we get our money in thinking BB has AA-KK and MP has AcQc. But with the minraise following your huge raise of a large bet, fold all day.

[finky]

I call, people raise at crazy times for crazy reasons. You will be shown more flush draws, overpailrs or TPTKs then higher sets. If you fold a set on the flop to an all-in, why are you playing low PPs in the first place?

Ride it out but keep an eye on your game, subtle things like emotion and expectation can creep in when your on a downswing, making it much harder to break. If the losses are giving you doubt or you feel any kind of pressure to win, you need a break. I've had serious downswings twice in my poker life, both bought on by a string of nasty beats. Both times went on longer than they should but they were both fixed by a break (only a few days). After that, tightening my play, starting hands and just sticking to the basics was all I needed to get back on track.

Another thing to remember is, given a large enough sample size, luck does even out. Next time you get set over set it could be a good thing.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

One should rarely consider how unlikely an event it is in general but instead how likely it is given the information at hand.

[relayer]

At one recent B&M session, I lost three times to set overs...very frustrating.

[Fnord]

This isn't a tough laydown.

[dr3wfish]

This isn't a tough laydown.

not a tough laydown? theres a crapload of action but I don't see how you laydown a set on an uncoordinated board (bar the flush draw). You see all sorts of crazy stuff at 100NL - get your money in and pay off the higher set without thinking twice about it. nh sir.

[spino1i]

This isn't a tough laydown.

Uhm are you kidding me? Sorry but laying down a lower set to a higher one is harder than laying down kings to aces. And we all know how often that happens.

[nutsinho]

If you play kings right you will usually know when you're against aces.

[finky]

I don't see the controversy here, MP is just as likely to have 34s, statistically and given the action, 56c, A5c and A2c and even KQ/AQ are also possibilities. The button could have AA/KK/AKc as well as QQ.

More importantly look at the pot odds, assuming MP calls the push, its $60 to win $240 or 4:1. Even if a higher set is out there 70% of the time (A very pessimistic prediction) it is still +EV to call.