Passive K-K play with deep stacks.

[dsaxton]

No read, opinions on this hand?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($45.60)
MP ($489.30)
CO ($70.15)
Hero ($406.45)
SB ($63.65)
BB ($84.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K.
UTG raises to $4, MP raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, 2 folds, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($39) 5, 4, T (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets $25, Hero calls $25, UTG folds.

Turn: ($89) 8 (2 players)
MP bets $25, Hero calls $25.

River: ($139) 6 (2 players)
MP bets $25, Hero calls $25.

Final Pot: $189

[zenbitz]

Raise the river. Turn bet same as flop bet = weak. River bet same as turn same as flop... that's so weak it might be the nuts. That would require a MP re-raise with 79 or any 7.

I would probably raise the turn on reflex but I think calling here is better, if he has AK you will get the money on the next street, and maybe more if he calls a raise.

How much to raise... there is a real chance here that AA is afraid of the straight. With deep stacks, bump it maybe $100?
He might call with AT/JJ/QQ. He might fold AA... he probably can't afford to re-raise with anything less than a set.

Hmm... if he calls your raise with a worse hand... he certainly calls you with AA/Set. I think AA is pretty likely, but no read makes this a hard hand to play.

Maybe your line is safest.

[Miffed22001]

not want to play for stacks?
Those stacks are pretty deep...
Id be afraid of raising the turn and scaring him away so i raise the river instead (unless hes playing this like a wuss)

[dsaxton]

Raise the river. Turn bet same as flop bet = weak. River bet same as turn same as flop... that's so weak it might be the nuts. That would require a MP re-raise with 79 or any 7.

I would probably raise the turn on reflex but I think calling here is better, if he has AK you will get the money on the next street, and maybe more if he calls a raise.

How much to raise... there is a real chance here that AA is afraid of the straight. With deep stacks, bump it maybe $100?
He might call with AT/JJ/QQ. He might fold AA... he probably can't afford to re-raise with anything less than a set.

Hmm... if he calls your raise with a worse hand... he certainly calls you with AA/Set. I think AA is pretty likely, but no read makes this a hard hand to play.

Maybe your line is safest.

By the turn I'm basically certain I have the best hand, but I see no value in raising and getting him to fold J-J, Q-Q or overcards. Better, I think, is to underrepresent my hand and lead him to believe his lesser overpair is good, so that I can then call him down for value.

I think raising the river is bad poker. I essentially know I have the best hand, but he will rarely call with a worse hand, and in the rare circumstance where he has two pair or a set, he might make a crying call, and I lose more chips unnecessarily.

[dsaxton]

not want to play for stacks?
Those stacks are pretty deep...
Id be afraid of raising the turn and scaring him away so i raise the river instead (unless hes playing this like a wuss)

How could I possibly win his stack with a pair of kings? If I were to manage to get all-in preflop here, I'd be dead.

Why would you raise on the river?

My thinking behind playing this hand passively was to win the maximum when I'm ahead, and lose the minimum when I'm behind. Since our stacks were so deep, the maximum I could lose was pretty significant. My play was in part a slow-play, but also a way of limiting potential losses.

[gabe]

..to make money

he doesnt have two pair and doesn't have TT enough to make calling the best play.

[dalecooper]

Why would you raise on the river?

Well - you probably get a crying call from JJ/QQ if it's a small raise (like a min-raise). You have a small chance of inducing a fold from AA, but I think it's small enough to discount (assuming you're just raising $25). If he has a set or two pair he'll probably call but not raise. Based on the way he played the hand though, a set or two pair seems like an outside chance.

I look at it like this: his most likely hands are JJ, QQ, or AA. If you knew for sure he had one of those three, and that any one was equally as likely as any other, this is just a value raise, because all three are probably going to give you a crying call and not re-raise. Two times out of three you win an extra $25; one time out of three you lose $25. You can adjust those percentages for less probable hands that are ahead of you & would probably call if you want, but I think a small raise there is not horrible.

[gabe]

i dont like any of the streets. with deep stacks i'm trying to get as much money as i can in preflop. if i don't raise preflop, i'm raising the flop, or at the latest the turn.

[dsaxton]

..to make money

he doesnt have two pair and doesn't have TT enough to make calling the best play.

With a four card straight on the board, it makes absolutely no sense to raise on the river with a pair of kings, expecting him to somehow call with a worse hand.

In general, raising on the river with one pair is at best an extremely borderline play in terms of profitability.

[gabe]

In general, raising on the river with one pair is at best an extremely borderline play in terms of profitability.

i wasn't saying you should play it as you did, then raise river, i was just giving a reason for raising the river.

with that said, you should have raised preflop and flop and turn if you like money.

[zenbitz]

I think the best line for this hand comes down to what "No reads" means. Against a passive donk, raise pf, raise flop, raise turn, check/call river. Against a weak/tighty Tagg or lagg that can lay down call/call/call might be best.


By running a line of call/call/call - you are assuming villain is a decent player or air-bluffing donk. So if the player IS decent, can you try to extract a little more on the river, or would everyone only call with AA minimum?

Maybe this is moot - would a decent player bet that weakly on this board without a monster? I mean, if he has AA turn bet is super weak. River bet is "whatever" since he's clearly afraid of a 7.

Conclusion: He's not a good player, or he's trapping. Dsaxon's line is good because you don't don't have that read until after the hand! Assuming he's a passive donk and betting the crap out of this hand pre-flop and flop works too... if that is the image you want to set up in the future.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

..to make money

he doesnt have two pair and doesn't have TT enough to make calling the best play.

With a four card straight on the board, it makes absolutely no sense to raise on the river with a pair of kings, expecting him to somehow call with a worse hand.

In general, raising on the river with one pair is at best an extremely borderline play in terms of profitability.

I disagree. Raising makes perfect sense as long as the range of hands you put him on doesn't include a 7. Seeing the way the hand played out, I don't think it's very likely. Personally, I think you're scared of monsters under the bed.

Consider the way he would probably play the hands you're afraid of...

Straight? Again, him having a 7 doesn't make much sense to me.

Set? After your cold call on the flop, I'd think an aware opponent would bet more on the turn to protect against the flush/straight. Even if he didn't, after your willingness to call his bet cold again on the turn, I'd think he'd try to get more value out of it on the river, especially with the flush not coming.

Two pair? Do you see him raising UTG with any combination of those board cards? This is more read dependent than anything, but since you had none, it's highly debatable. I'd be more inclined to think not, but it's certainly possible.

Personally I think you played the hand weakly. Possible is not the same thing as probable. You played the hand passively because of the possible hands you might be up against. Against the probable hands I think you're up against though, I'd be putting in a raise at some point.

By the turn I'm basically certain I have the best hand, but I see no value in raising and getting him to fold J-J, Q-Q or overcards. Better, I think, is to underrepresent my hand and lead him to believe his lesser overpair is good, so that I can then call him down for value.

I think raising the river is bad poker. I essentially know I have the best hand, but he will rarely call with a worse hand, and in the rare circumstance where he has two pair or a set, he might make a crying call, and I lose more chips unnecessarily.

If you think you're up against an over pair then I like the call on the turn, but if that's your thought process then I think you need to put in a small value raise on the end. You said yourself that you think it's not likely that he doesn't have two pair or a set. Again, if you feel that then I think a small value raise would be correct.

I don't see him firing a third time with just over cards when the pot is now much larger and you already called him twice. I think the most probable hands of A,10; K,10, JJ; QQ ; 99, etc. call a smallish raise here more often than not making it the correct thing to do. Two pair likely won't 3-bet the river if you cold-called, cold-called and then raised on the river, so I don't think you need to be worried about that.


Aside from your thinking, with the range of hands I put him on, I'm raising the turn. If he's betting a flush draw or has a pair then I want to protect my hand. If he has overs, I don't want to give him the chance to catch an A. The same sized bet on the turn makes me think that he thinks he has a mediocre hand, albeit one that he thinks is the best. I interpret it as a perceived value bet on his part as much as it is a blocking bet. The bets are large enough to get value for a hand he thinks is probably good and also large enough to freeze a possible better hand like your KK. The bets aren't huge though so he's also minimizing his loses if he's wrong.

I dunno... I understand your thinking in general, but I think it's a little weak in this particular situation. I don't think it's necessarily poorly played either, just perhaps a little too passive.

[dalecooper]

With a four card straight on the board, it makes absolutely no sense to raise on the river with a pair of kings, expecting him to somehow call with a worse hand.

You're looking at the board a little too specifically I think. There are two important elements to look at here:

1. He re-raised pre-flop. Even though the initial raise was weak, this gives you some information about his probable holdings - namely that he probably doesn't have a seven, and there's a good chance he has a big pair, tens or better. His subsequent betting reduces the chance of him having AK/AQ quite a bit, as well as TT. Since you have KK, the three obvious candidate hands for him to have are JJ, QQ, or AA, with a few dark horses in the mix as well.

2. You called two raises cold pre-flop. A thinking player (if he is one) understands this to mean that you have a good hand, more than likely some pocket pair. To him that means the chances of *you* having a seven are not that high, unless you have 77. That's important because this is what reasonable players think about when making a crying call. He sees the four card straight, but he also sees tremendous pot odds, his big pair (if that's what he has) which is an overpair to the board, and he makes a call where he thinks there's at least a 50/50 chance he's going to lose. But not a 75 or 100% chance. That's key.

...So why raise the river? Easy: a min-raise on the river induces a crying call a lot of the time from two specific hands worse than yours, JJ and QQ. AA also makes a call and then you lose the extra bet. If he has 99 he probably folds, in which case you were winning the hand anyway so it doesn't matter that you raised. His line doesn't make a lot of sense for many other hands, such as any hand that would make a set or two pair - I wouldn't discount them entirely, but I don't think they're likely enough to significantly alter your decision.

In general, raising on the river with one pair is at best an extremely borderline play in terms of profitability.

Yes, but I don't think this is a "general" type of situation. In fact not that many poker hands are that general. If you're going to play it this passively to the river, I don't necessarily agree, but i can see why. However, there is definitely a good argument for a value raise on the end. It may be more marginal than I am making it out to be, but it's not clearly a bad poker decision, either.

Look at it from the other side: let's say you were the villain on this hand, and your range of hands is JJ, QQ, or AA. The pot on the river has swollen to $186 and it's $25 to you to call, with this exact board. You have no read on the other guy except that he's been calling all the way down and now min-raised you. Pot's laying you 7.5:1 to call with your overpair. Do you think the donk factor and weird play factor are high enough to be worth a crying call? I would argue yes, and I'd also argue that most NL players make that call with JJ+ most of the time.

[jailhousejoe]

How often do people at these stakes min-raise UTG? Is it not possible that MP has seen weakness and re-raised with a wider range of hands than AK,KK,QQ,JJ? Im thinking he might just have an opener here. Silly thought? With that in mind, I would normally re-raise pre-flop here, but I can see why it might advertise your hand. Having not done this though and having dodged both aces and spades on the flop and turn I am definately raising the turn.

[dalecooper]

How often do people at these stakes min-raise UTG? Is it not possible that MP has seen weakness and re-raised with a wider range of hands than AK,KK,QQ,JJ? Im thinking he might just have an opener here. Silly thought?

Nope, but there's two things that make it somewhat less likely that he just has an opening hand: 1. he bet all the way down, all three streets - that line makes no sense for anything but a made hand, unless he's a total donk. 2. his re-raise before the flop was to 6xBB, 3x the initial bet amount. That does indicate strength. I don't know if he feels the need to re-raise quite so much with a weaker opener like AK/AQ/AJ. I'm not saying he wouldn't, but in my experience those kind of hands will very often just bump it to a real raise - like $8 or maybe $10.

[dsaxton]

As I said, I wasn't afraid of being beat on the latter streets, I simply thought that I might be able to maximize by playing my hand slightly passively against a likely smaller overpair (perhaps this is wrong, but it was my idea at the time when the hand was played). If I raise the turn or river, I'm representing something stronger than what I'm actually holding (as he has represented an overpair throughout the hand, my raise would be an indication I can beat an overpair to any remotely thinking player), and making it too difficult for him to pay me off with his inferior hand. Since I had no read on this player, I decided to assume that he was intelligent and would be capable of carrying out this line of reasoning and fold his overpair if I were to raise the turn or river. However, if he checked to me on the river, I was planning on making a substantial bet, as the possibility now exists in his mind that I missed a draw and am attempting to buy the pot. A bet here seems very uncredible, and so I think there is more value in a situation like this.

The way the hand was played, it looks like I'm afraid of being beat. I'm not. Early in the hand I was concerned he may've had A-A, and wanted to keep the pot size from getting out of control, but by the turn I was almost certain this wasn't the case, but I decided to simply call him down for value, as I thought raising by this point would overrepresent my hand. By just calling, I was allowing him to keep the lead and full confidence in his hand when I knew I was ahead, so that he would do the betting for me in a situation where there was no longer much value in raising.

I think that in situations where my opponent has shown a reasonable amount of strength, and I'm responding by coming over the top with a hand which is very likely the best (especially if it is a hand that is likely either dominating my opponents, or is dominated by my opponents), but not likely the best if I get a lot of action, I think a passive approach is not a bad idea. If I were to reraise this preflop, I would basically be flipping over K-K or A-A, and he would be cautious in proceeding without A-A. By just calling, I'm telling him not to be cautious with 10-10, J-J or Q-Q, but also potentially avoiding a big confrontation if he has A-A. Basically, I was either going to win a small-medium sized pot by playing my hand fast, or potentially lose a big one when he has A-A. That is the idea behind my preflop and flop plays, but by the turn the dynamic changes to where I'm simply calling him down for value with what I know to be the best hand, but one which probably wouldn't be good if he were to call my raises.

[SmackinYaUp]

By cold calling a raise and re-raise preflop when stuck between the bettors, you're going to naturally put TT-QQ on edge. You may not be flipping your cards over, but they are gonna keep an eye on your ass.

I understand your thinking here but I think a reraise would be best to get more money in the pot. Your big stack gives you room to maneuver (and fold) as necessary, so don't be afraid to make him pay to outflop you. If he puts you allin preflop then its up to you to decide whether to continue or not. Plus there's one too many opponents in the pot.

As you played it, I'd probably stick a min-raise in there either on the turn or river with the intention of folding to a reraise. You're gonna be giving great odds for a crying call from a weak hand. You're also gonna be giving great odds for any draws out there, but its better than checking.

[bdawg56kg]

I like the way dsaxton played the hand. A river minraise would be okay I think though, as villian almost certainly has to call with QQ/JJ here and if you get raised you know you are beat for sure, but I don't mind calling either. I think once you call the flop bet, you are commited to playing the hand passively to showdown, but why not raise the flop? I think raising to $70-80 would be a good play. Asssuming villian knows your not a total rock, your range for raising has to be somewhat wide, and not just limited to KK/AA/sets. From there you could see how villian reacts to the raise and take a line dependent on what you think will extract the most from a weaker overpair, maybe something like check behind on turn and hammer river, or bet 2/3 pot on turn and check behind on the river.

[Pingviini]

Given the action on all streets I wouldnt be surprised if he had AK or JJ. I disagree with gabe about re-raising PF unless hero has been doing that with a some hands PF. No reason to lose value post flop here..
his turn and river bets were so weak however that I am trying to get some more money in. min-raising seems like a viable option on turn, if we see river and he checks I am making a small value bet here.

[gabe]

yea preflop isn't an issue, but gotta raise sometime !

[biondino]

One thing I don't think has been mentioned - if you raise on the river and he folds, he doesn't get to see what cards you played. Some might see this as an additional plus point in favour of the raise?