Do I bet this river?

[Iwind]

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($10.10)
MP ($99.85)
Hero ($80.15)
SB ($47.60)
BB ($85.40)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T, T.
1 fold, MP raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds.

Flop: ($6.75) 5, T, 6 (2 players)
MP bets $4, Hero raises to $9, MP calls $5.

Turn: ($24.75) 4 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $13, MP calls $13.

River: ($50.75) 8 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $50.75

Results in white below:
MP has Kc Kd (one pair, kings).
Hero has Ts Td (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins $50.75.


This player had been playing tight and solid for the hour I had been at the table. I was pretty sure that he had an overpair here, probably one heart, but there was also the small chance that he had the flush with AK and was just slowplaying. So my question is, do I bet this river for value? I'm thinking if I bet the river too big he won't call with a worse hand, and if I bet the river too small he might sense weakness and decide to push, and then I am faced with a difficult decision, cause there is a chance he has AK of hearts after all.

[r8ed]

You have to put out a value bet when checked to on the river here. He played weak the whole way. If he reraises you huge then I guess you could possibly fold. But if he has a flush, he probably isn't going for a check raise at this point. He would bet out.

[bdawg56kg]

Yeah, I'm betting this river for value everytime. $20 sounds good. This is a really weird line for the nut flush to take.

[dsaxton]

Being afraid of the nuts here is bit paranoid. So many hands are associated with this betting line from your opponent, that you're only looking at a flush a small percentage of the time. You should definitely make a value bet and expect to get called by an overpair. If he raises, then obviously you can fold, but there's no sense in losing value from any of the hands that will call you.

[gabe]

if he checks the turn and the river, he doesnt have a flush

raise more on flush, bet more on turn, push river