Price check on this river

[Fnord]

Opponent is way too loose, but kinda aggro (46/20 PF.) He also tends to tip hands with bet sizes.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB ($39)
BB ($102.20)
UTG ($75.80)
UTG+1 ($69.15)
MP1 ($99)
MP2 ($98.50)
MP3 ($160.65)
CO ($55.35)
Fnord ($185.25)

Preflop: Fnord is Button with A, T.
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, 1 fold, Fnord calls $1, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($6) 5, Q, T (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets $2, Fnord calls $2, SB folds, BB calls $2, MP1 calls $2, MP2 folds.

Turn: ($14) A (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets $5, Fnord raises to $15, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP3 calls $10.

River: ($44) A (2 players)
MP3 checks, Fnord bets $??

Note: There is about $140 behind.

[ChrisBCritter]

I would think that a Push wouldn't get called here, but a "Steal" bet might get a re-raise steal attempt. So $60 should be the right amount here.

A $30 value bet will be percieved as strength, and he'll likely fold, any more than $60, and he'll think he doesn't have fold equity on a push.

[mxiu]

I really don't think he'll call anything. You could bet $10 here and I think he'd fold. I'd say overbet the pot and hope he's stubborn and thinks it's a steal. $60 sounds about right.

[Silly String]

I really don't think he'll call anything. You could bet $10 here and I think he'd fold. I'd say overbet the pot and hope he's stubborn and thinks it's a steal. $60 sounds about right.

I agree!! I bet $10 and hope he perceives the bet as too small to be a value bet and calls smelling a rat. I think you have a better chance of getting paid by the lotto commision here.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think the consensus here is make a bet which makes no sense...

[nutsinho]

$75

he has 55...

[siknd]

unusually large bet, because a lot of people will think second pair is good when the top card pairs. not sure why, but its true. he might have been prepared to muck KQ UNTIL the second ace comes.

[Fnord]

not sure why, but its true. he might have been prepared to muck KQ UNTIL the second ace comes.

This doesn't look like KQ to me.

[siknd]

well, it doesnt look like a set to me either. those flop/ turn bets could be defensive spade draws, in which case its moot. he woulda come over the top on the turn with the KJ open ender. i think would decide on the size of my bet AS IF he had queens and aces.

[Fnord]

i think would decide on the size of my bet AS IF he had queens and aces.

What range do you put him on?

I'm thinking....

2 spades
Tx
Qx (weak kicker, although I would expect a bigger flop bet.)
55

Does Ax fit the action at all?

I wasn't so much putting him on a hand, as a feeling he was drawing or weak and wanted to show something down based on his play up until the river.

[nutsinho]

exactly, 2 spades fold to anything, Tx folds to anything, Q folds to anything more than $10, 55 will call a huge bet because he thinks its most likely that you have KJ based on the action...
If he's gonna play for stacks with 55 then you can just bet 10 bucks.
If he can put you on possibly having A5 spades (when he has other two fives)/AT and decide not to raise and play for stacks here then I'm more inclined to bet a fuckton

[Fnord]

Q folds to anything more than $10

I think Qx is good for at least $15 here.

55 will call a huge bet

...but will 55 raise a smaller bet and call my push?

[siknd]

because its the aces that are paird i dont reraise with the small boat. but 55 would call you all in.

[Fnord]

i dont reraise with the small boat.

You != Him

[siknd]

im saying if you think he has 55, then put it all in because he will likely only flat call with a boat filled over, esp by aces.

[nutsinho]

55 will call a huge bet

...but will 55 raise a smaller bet and call my push?[/quote]

This is the consideration the second part of my post was meant to address...

[Fnord]

I've pretty much said my peace. I'll see if I can provoke an answer from another AAA poster or two before I give results.

I think this is a very interesting and fundamental NLHE river problem that gives both the value bet and push for the low % big pay-off crowd some ammo.

[IowaSkinsFan]

You know, it really looks like some sort of two pair from the flop and turn play. Now i think you should just Value bet it $10-20, he might make a call just because he's annoyed.

[siknd]

this really is a key skill in NLHE. its not good enough to win the pot of course, but to KNOW the value of your opponents hand in order to maximize value every time. the correct bet could be anywhere from 1/4 pot to all in, to folding because hes had you dominated with AQ the whole time.

there is nothing worse, AND nothing that often goes undetected more often, than underbetting your hand.

[jmontis]

yea I think you'll have to give him odds to call, since you raised the turn.

$10 is probably the lowest i'd go, and $25 is the highest

[ChrisBCritter]

Very interesting discussion.

The correct bet lies in the discovery of what our opponent holds.

Limp PF: 55,TT, A5s, XX Many hands fit here.

Flop: Leads out for 1/3 pot. Looks like he's pricing his draw. 55 or TT should be betting harder to chase out KJ... So should TP...

Turn: Leads out again for 1/3 pot, then CALLS the re-raise. Pricing his draw again? Nut flush draw hits the Ace or Two pair. 55, TT again should've bet out stronger, to figure if they were against the made straight, and can make a good laydown...

River: Flush draw doesn't complete, but nut flush draw has trip As, or a smaller "hidden" boat with A5. So he CHECKS. This is the first street He doesn't lead out on, knowing he'll get raised if he doesn't bet strong. If he doesn't have an A, I'm not getting paid...

Summary: 55 or TT are unlikely to have played this passively. AQ is the only hand to be scared of, and it doesn't fit the puzzle here. I put Opp on AX, possibly (hopefully) but not likely A5. Missed his flush draw, but made a "monster" on the river. So, based on that read, what is the correct bet? Pot is $44 at the river...
$10 is so low as to be ridiculous that he might suspect a trap...and only call
$30-45 might also be percieved as another Ace value betting, and might not be raised, unless opp has the under-boat.
$55-75 looks like someone who was also drawing and missed and is trying to steal the pot now.
$100-$PUSH will likely not get called by AX, and only sometimes by A5s

I think I overanalyzed the hand and probably missed something. I'll stick with my original thought though and say $60 is the best bet for value here, and possibly the only way to get all the money in with 2nd nuts...

[Fnord]

Chris,

I appreciate the effort that went into your post, however you're making a common and fatal flaw of imposing your/our own views on how this game should be played into your analysis instead of really getting into this guy's head. Start with his 46% VP$IP 20% PFR split...

[ChrisBCritter]

Chris,

I appreciate the effort that went into your post, however you're making a common and fatal flaw of imposing your/our own views on how this game should be played into your analysis instead of really getting into this guy's head. Start with his 46% VP$IP 20% PFR split...

And that's why I've stopped playing for the last week or so. Usually I'm not so bad, and can play off of my reads, but lately, I've definitely been superimposing myself as the other player too much and getting myself into bad-beat situations. Apparently my week off hasn't helped my situation yet..

Ok, so basically, I'm giving this guy too much credit. He's pretty LAGG so his limping range is pretty big, even to include AQ, QQ?? as dangerous trapping hands.

So a 1/3 bet on the flop probably does NOT indicate a draw for this guy. This is a value bet from someone who would attack with a draw. He's possibly slow-playing a big hand, AQ, QQ, QT,TT,55, Q5? T5? and wants to build the pot, not caring about the danger.

Then he does it again on the turn, betting low, hoping for someone to raise him so he can call and trap.

The check on the river solidifies that possibility of a big hand trapping. He's looking for a bet that he can CR AI.

So, realistic hands that he's now on are AQ, QQ, QT, TT, 55. If he wanted to trap with QT, he's probably not very happy now, and likely would've lead out again here. So the more I look at it the more it looks like someone who got his set on the flop, and wants to trap someone. QQ,TT,55. He "knows" that you got your Ace on the turn, so he wants you to bet into him here. So, a "standard" $35 bet on the river makes more sense to me now, as he is definitely setting up for a checkraise. After that all the money goes in pretty quickly I would say.

This is a different analysis from my last one, but it still doesn't feel completely "correct" to me. I feel like I'm missing the cherry on top of the sundae here...

[Fnord]

If somone is playing about half their hands and raising 20%, what kind of hands must they be raising? Hence, what kind of hands are they likely limping?

I think you'll end up pretty much with the range I've posted, with big question marks on his limp vs raise play on A5s and 55. Although given the bulk of trash this guy limps, those holdings quickly get lost in the sea of hopeless hands.

The other mistake is misreading bet sizes. We think in terms of pot sizes and correct bets being something like 1/2, 2/3, full pot. Many other players just don't think this way. The one dimensional value of "aggression" is problematic enough in a limit game. It's even more lacking when we throw bet sizes into the mix.

So we're left with, this guy raises good hands, some not-so-good hands, limps lots of trash and likes to bet often. Stop putting this tool on a fucking set already!

[ChrisBCritter]

So I'm still giving him too much credit you say? Not smart enough to trap with a big hand like that?? Hmmm. We're really digging in on this one.

I'll give it one more shot, then I gotta do some actual work...

Ok, Let's say that our Opp is as transparent as possible. Limp from MP means that he doesn't likely have a PP and definitely not AQ. Got it. probably a hand with some paint in it.

2 spades Flop of QT5. Really weak bet of $2 says that he has at least a T or a 5, possibly a Q with a nothing kicker... Probably doesn't know how to bet a draw here...

Turn of an A. He didn't hit this, but he hopes his Q is still good $5! "Hey, why'd he raise me? Must be a bluff, I think my Q is still good, I call." Tx or 5x probably folds here.

River A. " Wow, my Q doesn't look very good anymore, what if he has a third A?? I'll check."

So the answer is $15 which you gave us earlier. Just enough that Mr. Qx thinks he has to call with his underpair.

I just couldn't simplify this hand that much before, as I always give the fish too much credit for actually having a plan in some situations. At this rate, I'll be sticking to the low limits for a long time until I learn this. Am I even in the right ballpark here? I don't know of another direction this hand could possibly go!

[Fnord]

So I'm still giving him too much credit you say? Not smart enough to trap with a big hand like that?? Hmmm. We're really digging in on this one.

There is what is possible and what is likely... It's POSSIBLE he thinks he's trapping here with god-knows-what....

Ok, Let's say that our Opp is as transparent as possible. Limp from MP means that he doesn't likely have a PP and definitely not AQ. Got it. probably a hand with some paint in it.

or suited/connected-like trash

2 spades Flop of QT5. Really weak bet of $2 says that he has at least a T or a 5, possibly a Q with a nothing kicker... Probably doesn't know how to bet a draw here...

His MO is betting, a lot of betting. Why would he check something like a draw?

Turn of an A. He didn't hit this, but he hopes his Q is still good $5! "Hey, why'd he raise me? Must be a bluff, I think my Q is still good, I call." Tx or 5x probably folds here.

It's worth noting that $5 is bigger than his $2 flop bet, there might be something to that...

[Fnord]

Alright, I'll spill the beans....

My first thought was I couldn't go too wrong pushing the 2nd nut into a pretty terrible player. Then I did some hand reading, figuring that I'd bet something aggressive, but callable by Qx, Tx and expect to get raised if he had a boat or maybe even a straight or air. I figured pushing was just too likely to throw away a perfectly good call from a weak hand or even inspire a good laydown.

I bet $20, he called with A 4

[ChrisBCritter]

His MO is betting, a lot of betting. Why would he check something like a draw?

So are we coming full circle here? Back to two spades or KJ? But wouldn't he have Raised PF with Axs or KJ? Mostly. So how about A5o, or Q5o? Am I getting warmer?

It's worth noting that $5 is bigger than his $2 flop bet, there might be something to that...

LOL. Your hints are becoming more and more obvious (I hope). So the A "Helped" him. It didn't "scare" him so he bet "bigger" when he paired his A. He's still betting really small though (irregardless of pot size). So he should have the other A at this point... but probably not on the flush draw... Can we go with A5o at this point? or Axo? He likes to bet... does he bet with air on the flop to take a pot? possibly.

Ok, my brain is fried for now. I've gotta be thinking way too deeply into this hand, or just in the wrong direction. I'll come back to it tomorrow. Maybe the obviousness will smack me in the head...

[ChrisBCritter]

Alright, I'll spill the beans....

My first thought was I couldn't go too wrong pushing the 2nd nut into a pretty terrible player. Then I did some hand reading, figuring that I'd bet something aggressive, but callable by Qx, Tx and expect to get raised if he had a boat or maybe even a straight or air. I figured pushing was just too likely to throw away a perfectly good call from a weak hand or even inspire a good laydown.

I bet $20, he called with A 4

Ok, I guess I don't have to sleep on it now! At least I got it! Axo in my last post!!!

Don't you think he might've called more than that??

[Lukie]

I can't ever see myself putting anything less than a $25 chip in the pot here...

[mxiu]

Alright, I'll spill the beans....

My first thought was I couldn't go too wrong pushing the 2nd nut into a pretty terrible player. Then I did some hand reading, figuring that I'd bet something aggressive, but callable by Qx, Tx and expect to get raised if he had a boat or maybe even a straight or air. I figured pushing was just too likely to throw away a perfectly good call from a weak hand or even inspire a good laydown.

I bet $20, he called with A 4

I would bet on the fact that he'll call you down even if you go all-in here.