How much fold equity do I have here?

[bdawg56kg]

Villian in this hand is not a total donk, but not very good from what I observed. He's probably the type of guy that stacks off everytime with AA on a 259 rainbow board to a set. Okay, here's a previous hand that went down with this villian. I posted it in Lukie's thread, but I'll repost here.

Villian called my push with A K

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($161.45)
Hero ($99)
BB ($99)
UTG ($44.25)
UTG+1 ($73.55)
UTG+2 ($57.50)
MP1 ($116.55)
MP2 ($117.70)
MP3 ($119.70)
CO ($34.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T, T. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $1, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, MP3 raises to $5, 2 folds, Hero (poster) calls $4.50, 1 fold, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds.

Flop: ($13) T, J, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $8, MP3 raises to $16, Hero raises to $99, MP3 calls $78.

Turn: ($115) 7 (2 players)

River: ($115) 8 (2 players)

Final Pot: $198


Now different table, same villian. Preflop with Q9s I felt I had odds since it was likely the limpers would call, but it could be debated. How's my flop line? Do you think I have any fold equity at all with a push when he raises the flop like that? Sorry if this is more of a math question than anything. Looking back I think check/calling this flop would've been best. Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB ($98)
Hero ($111.30)
UTG ($58.55)
MP ($92.70)
CO ($92.60)
Button ($104.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, Q. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, CO raises to $3, Button calls $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, UTG folds, MP calls $2.

Flop: ($13.50) 9, J, K (4 players)
Hero bets $9, MP folds, CO raises to $25, Button folds, Hero ???

[arkana]

I dont think you have much folding equity on a board like that, a decent opponent has AA,KK,JJ,99,KJ,QT,K9,AK (given that he raised PF AA,KK,JJ,99,AK is more likely) there every time and hes not folding one of those hands (except maybe AK). You still have about 36% equity even against a set so its not horrible but I think you should only put your stack on the line here if you think you have decent folding equity. For example 7c8c on a 5c 8d Ac board where you have more folding equity against his range.

I dont like leading the flop here unless you want to get it all in. Fold to the raise or call if you think he will pay you off (but I dont really like calling either because if you miss the turn you will have to fold to a bet).

[pgil]

given that he called an AI w/ two overs and an inside straight draw, I don't think he's folding, especailly if he's got the K or AA, the latter of which seems more likely, especially if you compare his opener on the first hand posted with the bet he makes on this particular hand. the nice thing about that is, if he's on a pair of kings or AA, he doesnt have the flush draw, and if he's got the nut flush draw, you've got a pair already plus two of his clubs. you have no fold equity here, but after looking at the math (rough estimate) I don't know that you want a fold here.

[johnny_fish]

Push both. You can't fold or call. Lots of pot equity, a bit of fold equity. Very +EV.

[Lukie]

Push both. You can't fold or call. Lots of pot equity, a bit of fold equity. Very +EV.

I agree.

2nd hand I muck preflop, but on the flop I think bet/3-bet push is clearly the right play. 2p outs, trip outs, straight outs, flush outs...

[bdawg56kg]

Results: I made a crying push and he insta-called with red KT. I hit a club and took it down.

I dont like leading the flop here unless you want to get it all in. Fold to the raise or call if you think he will pay you off (but I dont really like calling either because if you miss the turn you will have to fold to a bet).

I agree wholeheartedly. I didn't really take the time to think it through enough on the flop though, and just wanted to get the money in fast, but I really question if my line is best here, knowing ahead of time that I was going to get called.

I think bet/3-bet push is clearly the right play

Hmm. I'm not so sure that my line is clearly the right play here. Isn't the massive fold equity combined with my opponent's willingness to laydown an overpair or TPTK (keep in mind that he just saw me use this line with a set) what makes my line so effective, much more-so than the fact that I have a sh*tload of outs? So if you know you will get called, you're essentially flipping a coin for 100BB's. Fnord, help me out here.

Also, it would be interesting to see the exact numbers on this one versus villian's likely hand range, and if it's clearly +EV, then maybe there's nothing to discuss here...