PP with 1 overcard facing UTG c-bet

[Lukie]

NL100, full ring, $100 effective stacks. Villain is a solid tag and a consistent winner in the game. He is 18/6 over many hands. I ventured a guess that the PFR from the UTG position is probably in the range of 3% or so. Similar reads could be put on my own relatively uncreative game.

I'm dealt 99 in CO. UTG Villain makes it 4x, folds to me, call, rest fold. HU to flop. T63r. Villain leads 3/4 pot. Villain does not auto c-bet every flop, but does so more often then he could hit. My action, and plan for the rest of the hand? Does it change if the board is 2-tone?

Assuming AT, suited or unsuited, is not in villain's range, how does this situation differ then holding say, JJ? Does the hand play out differently, even though JJ and 99 basically play the same against villain's tight, uncreative high card/high pair range?

[Irisheyes]

My action, and plan for the rest of the hand?

Call and see how he plays the turn. If he bets there I think he can have it. If he doesn't have a made hand then basically he's drawing to 6 outs. 6x2 = 12%, so one in eight times he'll hit his overcards on the turn. I think this risk is worth it compared to the price of raising the flop.

This would be helped by a read on weather he'll bet the second barrel or not.
Also he thinking on enough levels to bet any turn A,K or Q regardless?

Does it change if the board is 2-tone?

It helps you because you can bluff a flush on the turn. Basically it strengthens the argument for calling his suspected c-bet. I don't think he has a flush draw enough for that to be a concern.

Assuming AT, suited or unsuited, is not in villain's range, how does this situation differ then holding say, JJ? Does the hand play out differently, even though JJ and 99 basically play the same against villain's tight, uncreative high card/high pair range?

Nah it doesn't make a difference really, but thats a solid read you have. How often is your read going to be that tight?

[Renton]

why not pop it up to 2.5 his c-bet? I found that this is a fairly cheap way to test his resolve. I think you pull the pot out from under him enough to make this worth it.

If you just call like Irish suggests, and the turn is another over, then you've learned nothing about his hand.

I think the proper way is to show extreme strength on the flop, while the pot is small enough to make it a cheap gesture.

[Pelion]

Assuming AT, suited or unsuited, is not in villain's range, how does this situation differ then holding say, JJ? Does the hand play out differently, even though JJ and 99 basically play the same against villain's tight, uncreative high card/high pair range?

He could have JJ, Its just one more hand that beats you. If he doesnt auto c-bet when does he cbet. Does he only cbet with say...AQ,AJ on a K high flop or is he happy to cbet with AK on a 247 flop?
If its the former then he must have a higher pair. If hes a solid player then i probably just fold it and wait until someone who sucks is in a hand with me or I actually have a hand. He isnt going to lose his stack with AK but you might lose alot if he has QQ

[bdawg56kg]

Given your read, I think a "weak" fold is in order here. What do you think his hand range is here? AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/AK/AKs/AQs would be typical IMO. You are behind to 5/8 of those hands. I realize that this is not necessarily accurate by any means, but at least it gives some basis to go on. Aside, do you think villian is tricky enough to be raising suited connectors or small PP's UTG?

Do you think he can be moved off a big pair? If so, then I probably call the c-bet and *maybe* try to make a play if another blank or ten or possibly an ace hits.

With JJ in this spot, it wouldn't make much of a difference, and I don't mind folding to the right opponent, although I probably call and see a turn, since according to my very rough analysis above, you are now about even money against his hand range.

[Irisheyes]

I'd say scratch TT from his range. And make it all AQ

So AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ

AA dealt 12 ways
KK 12
QQ 12
JJ 12
AK 16
AQ 16

36 hands are ahead, 32 we're ahead.

I didn't think it was that close I must say.

[Miffed22001]

we play it ike we play a set and see how much he likes his hand once he sees us showing strength. That tells us how good each hand is in each situation. It also allows us to be creative with stronger hands/air
The two hands you suggest are both potential 3 betting hands preflop aginst a taggy player anyway, especially JJ. I dont want to go too far with either hand should i not need to.

[Lukie]

Irish- all PP's have 6 possible ways of being dealt.

4 first cards x 3 second cards / 2 since order doesn't matter

[Vrax]

What is the range of UTG? Does he back off on turn with overcards? Does he bet the turn with made hand all the time?

If raising range og UTG is JJ+ and AK, your 99's are in bad shape, 35-65 equity. Top 3% of hands is exact that range. No more and no less.


Playing 99's without improvement requires more knowledge about opponent here. Without player-dependent reads I think it's not worth to stay in the hand. If opponent has looser raising standards then it can be worth to play some poker, but not against likely overpair.

Anyway, what about flat-call flop and bet the turn?

[Lukie]

I'd say scratch TT from his range. And make it all AQ

So AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ

AA dealt 12 ways
KK 12
QQ 12
JJ 12
AK 16
AQ 16

36 hands are ahead, 32 we're ahead.

I didn't think it was that close I must say.

Let's put a different spin on things here.

AA-JJ dealt 24 ways
AK-AQ dealt 32 ways. Say he bets these half the time unimproved. I think that is reasonable.

His range is 24 overpair, 16 overcards.

Also factor in that I have position, but that may be negated completely (perhaps even moreso) by being in a win a little, lose a lot type situation. Of course it's also completely possible that a raise can make villain fold the best hand.

As far as the original hand, I appreciate the advice that was given. It's just one of those grey areas in hold 'em that I think depend more on the villain then the cards. I'd say against somebody who was slightly looser, I'd advocate a raise, and against somebody who was a bit tighter, I think it would be a pretty clear fold. In these types of situations I'm not very high on the 'call and see what he does on the turn' type thinking. You just don't establish your hand or get information about his. It's easy to say that he'll keep firing with an overpair, or check/fold overcards (ASSuming he doesn't improve, and there are 12 of them that will scare the shit out of you). But it just doesn't work like that. In villain's shoes, I will make sure that I occasionally 2 barrell overcards here in the right situation, and c/c or c/r here with a set/overpair, either for pot control reasons or to build a huge pot.

In any case, I feel that to continue in the hand, the proper way to go about doing so would be to make a raise, in the same amount that you would do if you hit a set. If villain 3-bets it's an easy fold. If he calls then leads the turn, easy fold. If he checks to you, I think it's prudent to just check behind for pot control reasons and for the miracle 2 outer. But you have to realize that if he is a solid player and he calls a substantial raise OOP, you are almost certainly beat.

[Lukie]

What is the range of UTG? Does he back off on turn with overcards? Does he bet the turn with made hand all the time?

info that we'd love to have, but unfortunately do not.

If raising range og UTG is JJ+ and AK, your 99's are in bad shape, 35-65 equity. Top 3% of hands is exact that range. No more and no less.

yeah, throwing in AQ as well obviously increases his estimated utg pfr past 3%, but it makes for more interesting conversation. You make a good point though, if villain's range here is just JJ-AA, AK it's definately time to get out. Especially considering you have no implied odds vs overcards and pretty bad reverse implied odds against overpairs.

Playing 99's without improvement requires more knowledge about opponent here. Without player-dependent reads I think it's not worth to stay in the hand. If opponent has looser raising standards then it can be worth to play some poker, but not against likely overpair.

agreed 100%

Anyway, what about flat-call flop and bet the turn?

Not something I'd want to make a standard play in this situation, but I suppose. Plan if a blank falls and you are looking down a strong second barrell, fold? What about if a high card hits and it's checked to you?

Of course, if I have a set in this situation on a relatively drawless board, I'm sometimes calling the flop, sometimes raising. All I know is making correct decisions in situations like this is what makes a winning poker player. Good discussion.

[Fnord]

There might be value in a raise here every now and then, but I just don't give this guy that kind of action. You're really freerolling on a 9 because you lose showdown here just about every time.