From his perspective...

[Lukie]

I just sat down a bit ago, got 4-tables going. 1 orbit max on each. Villain is 'lukieplaya' and is on two of my tables including this one. He seems tight and certainly isn't out of line. He has $101, I cover.

8-handed NL100

UTG short-stacked donk limps, 2 folds, I raise to $5 with Ad Kc. Villain is directly to my left and calls. 3 folds, UTG calls. 3 to the flop.

(Td 3d As)

UTG checks. I bet $11. Villain raises to $31. UTG folds.

Action is on me, what do I do, and what is my plan for the rest of the hand?

[Renton]

Knowing you as a player, I would put you on AK or TT and proceed with caution. I would have to know if you were capable of bluffing, since all I can beat, really, is a bluff, given the average tight player's raising range.

I'd probably either lay it down or flat call and maybe probe bet the turn, depending on the feel I had.

[Lukie]

lukieplaya is an unknown to you. You might have 20 hands on him over two tables, IF that. He seems tightish, and that's about all we know...

[Fnord]

As described:
Maybe fold, depending on how much we feel like gambling.
Otherwise call raise and play poker.

If I know it's Lukie and he doesn't know it's me:
Fold, you're either way behind here, splitting or a little ahead and it's going to cost you a ton to find out. If Lukie figures out we know this, then we might need to pick a spot later, but it's not that time yet. Then again, Lukie is so busy on his other 9 tables, that he doesn't have the bandwidth to play lots of hands against guys who aren't going to donk off lots of money to bother defending.

Fnord vs Lukie metagame:
Fold here some % of the time.
Otherwise donk the turn all-in.
Maybe even 3-bet the flop all-in for flavor.
Any predictable, deterministic approach to spots like this is subject to exploitation by the other player.

[Lukie]

Hero in this hand min 3-betted to $51, Lukie pushed, I called, he had 33.

Usually the poker gods put down a couple tens, a couple diamonds, a couple kings, or some other nasty two card combination here when Lukie has a set, but they were generous and his hand held up.

---


From my perspective:

I can certainly make this play with 2 diamonds, but given preflop play and my position, it's not going to be here. And if I do, it's something like Ad Kd. Other then that though, I'm going to have a set, tptk for the split, or tptk with a redraw at the nuts a LOT of the time. And if that's the case, all the money is going in within 2 bets for me post-flop. I think Fnord gave a great analysis...

[Miffed22001]

you made it too much for top pair to consider playing for stacks here. If i had two pair i might but the 30 bet leaves me nothing but an all in. You actually make this easy to fold top pair. You want to give tptk room to 3 bet this flop if he likes his hand a lot.
While ive now seen the results and would have guessed at 33/tt/aa anyway and playing a big pot here isnt particularly +ev for me its an easy fold.
I would make it so much here. perhaps 25. leaves room for me as opp to 3 bet to pair (just ) maybe!

[Lukie]

Protecting my hand is important to consider here.

[Lukie]

scratch that, protecting my hand AND getting money in before a scare card comes while I think he is willing are both very important here.

[Cocco_Bill]

I am either re-raising all in or folding, depending on opponent

[Lukie]

I am either re-raising all in or folding, depending on opponent

what are the benefits here of re-raising all-in as opposed to calling and open-pushing a safe turn?

[Cocco_Bill]

I am either re-raising all in or folding, depending on opponent

what are the benefits here of re-raising all-in as opposed to calling and open-pushing a safe turn?

Well, lets say he has AQ or AJ and a Q, K, J or diamond falls on the turn. It could win him the hand, kill the action, or scare a fold out of you.

[Lukie]

How often does a tight villain have AJ, even AQ here?

A king would be nice, but doesn't help us improve to beat anything here and only KK would improve to beat us. fear of getting 3 outted by TPGK really shouldn't be much of a concern here as I think protecting your stack is far more important then protecting your hand against an already unlikely TPGK.

Against Lukie's range, this is probably a fold. Against a wider range consisting of draws and weaker made hands (which only have 2-3 outs...), I think the best way to approach this hand would be to call and peel off another card, and donk push any non-diamond turn.

[bdawg56kg]

How often does a tight villain have AJ, even AQ here?

Lukie, this guy (lukieplaya) has been at the table for one orbit. How can you draw any conclusions from one orbit? Sure you can say that since he didn't play a hand outside his blind that he probably is tight, but you really have nothing to go on. Therefore I think you have to include AQ/AJ/Adxd in his raising range, and assume he is capable of overplaying a weak top pair here.

Also, I tend to agree with Coco_Bill that pushing (or folding) this flop would be better than calling. If you put lukieplaya on a pair-combo draw or gutshot + flush draw, you want to get the money in on the flop, no? You are a slight favorite to Axdx (I think, might be close), and you are definitely a small favorite over KdQd type hand. Add in the fold equity and dead money in the pot and it seems like a flop push is better than calling. Also, if lukieplaya has AdJd or KdQd for example, and you call the flop raise and shove a blank turn, how likely is it that you think he calls the push? Not very likely IMO. This line is probably better for variance, but for maximizing EV I like a flop push rather than call.

But... If I am hero, I would probably make a weak fold here. Assuming villian is not a donk, you are either crushed or a coinflip to win the hand, and absent a read, I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt here. I mean, he has to know AK is well within your range.

[Fnord]

Earth to Lukie: A turned Diamond often improves your hand here.

[Lukie]

Earth to Lukie: A turned Diamond often improves your hand here.

why.. because he MIGHT have a big diamond and would be more willing to put it allin since he has a big redraw?

[Fnord]

Earth to Lukie: A turned Diamond often improves your hand here.

why.. because he MIGHT have a big diamond and would be more willing to put it allin since he has a big redraw?

Because he probably doesn't have 2 diamonds and it would give you a nut flush re-draw.

[Lukie]

ok i see.. this switched perspectives thing is really messing with my head. My last post would have been from lukie's perspective with the set.

By the way, this hand is quite similar to our hand that one time...

[Lukie]

Board: Td 3d As 7d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 20.4545 % 20.45% 00.00% { AdKc }
Hand 2: 79.5455 % 79.55% 00.00% { 3c3s }

Heh, the diamond obviously improves our equity dramatically.. but it's still a huge mistake for us if we get it allin if he has a set...

[Fnord]

if he has a set...

If his range is that darn narrow with a low bluffing frequency calling the flop raise is stupid.

[Lukie]

if he has a set...

If his range is that darn narrow with a low bluffing frequency calling the flop raise is stupid.

Aside from AK vs AK, what would be an example of a hand Lukie could hold here where a 3rd diamond would help our hand to the point where it would be correct to get all the money in on the turn?

[Lukie]

We'd have to have a split or be ahead a large fraction of the time for that diamond to really help against his range, and I really don't feel like trying to work all of it out right now. Maybe tomorrow.