Three bluffs - need opinions.

[aislephive]

Hand 1: No real reads on this guy, I had not gotten out of line at all and he has no reason to think I'm bluffing here. His flop raise looked like one of those "I think you missed this flop" raises and I didn't think he had a 9, so I figured I still had outs if I was called.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $44.20
UTG+1: $134.40
Hero: $49.25
Button: $53.33
SB: $49.65
BB: $17.65

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with J A
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 4 9 9 ($5.25, 3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.5, UTG raises to $10, Hero raises all-in $43.5, UTG calls all-in $31.95.
Uncalled bets: $5.05 returned to Hero.

Turn: Q ($94.2, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $89.15, Sidepot 1: $5.05)


River: J ($94.2, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $89.15, Sidepot 1: $5.05)


Results:
Final pot: $94.2

Hand 2: I didn't try to bluff the flop, but I picked up a gutshot on the turn and I called a tiny bet, and they both checked the river which brought a scare card of sorts. They both looked weak, is this bet profitable in the long run?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $35.75
UTG+1: $9.95
CO: $54.55
Hero: $58.93
SB: $73.24
BB: $86.52

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with A 5
2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises to $2, SB folds, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: 3 K J ($6.25, 3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 4 ($6.25, 3 players)
BB bets $1, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: Q ($9.25, 3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $6
Results:
Final pot: $9.25

Hand 3: I had called a few of his raises and then folded the flop when he made a c-bet, so I thought he would have to give me credit for a hand here. I did make sure I had some outs though, I figured an A or J, and maybe even a Q would give me the best hand and that he folds everything but a strong K or AA, or of course QJ or a set. It makes no sense to raise the flop and check the turn, so I fired again, thoughts?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $61.35
UTG+1: $73.25
CO: $50.50
Hero: $50
SB: $47.63
BB: $25.56

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with A Q
UTG raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 9 K T ($4.75, 2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero raises to $9, UTG calls.

Turn: 3 ($22.75, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $15
Results:
Final pot: $22.75

[drmcboy]

Hand 2 & 3 I like.

Hand 1 I want at least some sort of read that makes me sure he could lay down something like 88 here. It's not a bad play, especially if he is the type who could also fold say JJ. I don't think average player at 6 max folds over pair here much at all. If he believes you have over pair he could play 9 this way.

[biondino]

In hand one, with no real reads, why did you think *he* was bluffing you? Most people tend not to bluff all that often, but a bluff is the only thing you beat, and his re-raise says in no uncertain terms that he has a hand. Sure, he could be bluffing, but in my experience of $50NL, I'd say 80% of the time plus, he's got an overpair or better, or a very good draw (almost certainly not the case on this flop obv).

[zenbitz]

I agree 1 is terrible unless he's super weak. He limp-calls so he probably has a pair. That flop is garbage, your re-raise says "I HAVE KK".

Which means, either he has no respect for your re-raise, or has AA/44/ or a 9. I think stack sizes worked against you here... once he raises and you re-raise, the pot is too big for him to fold 88, becuase of the high probability that you are on overcards trying to buy it.

Alos, he check raised... so I bet he has an overpair and will not lay it down. Given the open limp, probably TT.

[aislephive]

In hand one, with no real reads, why did you think *he* was bluffing you? Most people tend not to bluff all that often, but a bluff is the only thing you beat, and his re-raise says in no uncertain terms that he has a hand. Sure, he could be bluffing, but in my experience of $50NL, I'd say 80% of the time plus, he's got an overpair or better, or a very good draw (almost certainly not the case on this flop obv).

I didn't think he was making a stone cold bluff, I figured him for a small/medium pair that figured their hand was good but would muck if I came back over the top since 95% of the time here I have some kind of overpair. Let's just say that half the time here I'm bluffing with overcards and the other half I have a big pair, obviously the percentages are off, but for the sake of the argument we'll stick with 50/50. Now the times that I just have overs (assuming he has TT-) I will be a 3/1 dog, but the times that I'm not bluffing and I have a big pair he is a 10/1 dog. Now change the percentages to 95% big pair and 5% bluff, and you see why making that call with anything less than trips, a set, or AA/KK is a terrible play. Given that everybody slowplays at this limit I think a set of 4's or a 9 is unlikely.

[dalecooper]

I'm not crazy about the first hand either - I think you're reading too much into his play too soon, and I don't like playing for stacks that abruptly without better information. You really aren't sure how many outs you have if called - if you had say AK suited in any suit except spades, I'd feel a lot better about that bluff.

Hand 2 seems fine, although I don't really understand your play before the river. Check behind on that flop is fine. But then you missed the turn and got a weak feeler bet from a guy who probably had a moderate pair - why not raise right there? You only have a very modest draw, I don't really understand the call. Against one opponent I might call there and look to steal on the river, but it seems much less likely that two opponents will check through on the river, and you're not raising if one of them bets anything substantial.

Hand 3 is fine.

[John_Max]

#1: Against average player I would fold that always. He has you beat, you have just two overcards to draw and I don´t think he can get away with whatever (pair?) he is holding. If you have a read thats a different story.

#2: Maybe c-bet on the flop instead and try to win there?

#3: It´s ok but also possible to float the flop and bet/raise the turn.

[aislephive]

Hand 1 he called with 33 and I rivered him.

Hand 2: They both folded river.

Hand 3: He instafolded when I bet the turn.