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 Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
Never played this high, so take this fwiw. If you think the possibility of him raising the turn on a semi-bluff is a good one, then why not shove it in?
He would have to be VERY sure that it was a semibluff for this play to be profitable. This is what makes the semibluff play so powerful. If aces has KQ, he is ~~25% to win on the river with his 11 outs. So he has 25% equity in this pot. However, he'll fold to a push in this case, and hero will win only ~~150 bucks.
If aces is really on a set or aces, he will obviously insta-call your push and you will have 4% equity in a 1200 dollar pot.
So if aces is sitting on a monster even 10-20% of the time he makes this play, hero loses money by pushing over the top in the long run.
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